Quote:
Originally Posted by Only The Lonely..
I'm going to be a bit of a wet blanket here..
But, I'm not sure I understand where all of this demand is coming from for living in 400 square foot shoeboxes?
With the exception of a few smaller projects on Waterfront, our downtown hasn't had any significant residential highrise construction in over 20 years (think Fort Garry Place, The Evergreen towers, etc)
Why the demand for multiple 30 something story towers all of the sudden? I would think these projects would canibalize each other.
I'd love to hear everyone's theories.
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I'm not going to pretend like I know exactly what the factors or reasons are, but if I were going to theorize:
- I'd say ultimately it boils down to people and a combination of timing/market factors coming together....though "people" are who will be spending money on the housing/hotel rooms. Can't speak for office space as I know even less about that, but Winnipeg is becoming stronger as a central hub for many offices or business ventures in North America, other offices are looking to relocate downtown
- Winnipeg is adding a greater number of persons per year than any other city in Canada under a million CMA...no doubt this is playing a role, with more people come more tastes and some of these people would be in the market for downtown housing options.
Housing options in general are not exactly plentiful in the city, there's been a trend for constant demand, and additionally there seems to be a distinction between people who can afford new condos/homes vs. those who cannot and look towards rental properties. Rentals, especially, are hot in Winnipeg. There's a lot of demand for rental spaces, and I think Heritage Landing is banking on that specifically downtown. The other developments seem to be aimed mainly at condo buyers and/or hotels.
- Manitoba has for some time now been more effective at retaining young professionals than in the preceding decades where said professionals left to other provinces; many of the young professionals are moving downtown since that is where the action is happening, from places to go out to work generally focused downtown, to extra-ciricular activities (i.e. Jets); to a smaller degree there is also a cascade effect where post-uni, groups of friends decide to move in the same general area or building and positive word is passed around. It might not be the majority of people, but even several hundred individuals over a few years would mean several hundred units sold.
- Some of it is based on future projections (like the hotels, timed to open with expected increase in visitors with CMHR, Jets games, Bombers games, increased demand on business meeting space, post-Expansion of WCC business traffic, etc...there's likely a compound effect in general) and population curves/forward market trends for the housing
- For private & outside investors it makes sense to capitalize on market trends; those who are capitalizing on projects in the Peg have identified it as a hot market...folks like Glasshouse, Fortress...
For example, through some representatives of a Toronto development group that built my place in Calgary, apparently in general Winnipeg is an under the table hot spot for investors, and garnering much attention. They just have not done enough research into the market because they've focused on other markets, and possibly they may not have the ability to focus on more than a few projects at a time, but regardless the point was: Winnipeg is a market many outside investors feel they might be missing the boat on. I bet we'd be surprised how many proposals Winnipeg gets. If these developments end up successful, expect even more proposals to go Winnipeg's way.
- People who are from the Winnipeg market are aware of the market opportunities (d-condos, Heritage, Creswin, CentrePoint, MPI, other local developers, etc..) and I assume are just moving forth with their projects that make sense to them, however.....
- ....to that end, some of these projects may indeed canibalize others to varying degrees, but such is the nature of free market enterprise...its the same for any city where many towers are built around the same general time-span.
I'm sure there are more factors I am overlooking or have no idea of, but this is what popped in my mind