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  #8621  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 4:31 AM
BLeagues BLeagues is offline
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ohh....

I guess me and my work in Fort McMurray rules me out?

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Originally Posted by cdnguys View Post
...for those of us in the energy industry nobody takes him seriously.
The key thing in all of these talks is south of the 49th paralell. It is called the Bakken oil fields.

It has been well noted that the USA will be a net exporter of oil by 2025, if not sooner.

The USA will not need Canadian oil. Why? Because of the Bakken oil field. The price to produce a barrel of light oil from bakken is currently around $50. This is already cheaper than it costs to produce a barrel of oil sands from Alberta, depending on which process used.

In my opinnion the world oil price is going back down to $50 a barrel, or LOWER. This is not only going to be bad for Alberta's economy, it is also going to be bad for the Canadian economy as a whole.

The USA and their free enterprising ways will sell as much of their oil as they can. The US is heavily relying on the Bakken oil to be the key in their next economic boom. If Canada is lucky, they will get a piece of it. As well, if Canada is lucky, it will not put the death knell into the oil sands of Alberta.

What do you think the Saudi's, Russia and all the other big oil players are going to do? Do you think they are going to turn the spiggot off?

As the headline in papers and news reports read last fall: Bakken: Game CHANGER
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  #8622  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 5:14 AM
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Main Street West Phototour

So I heard from a reliable source that there's a proposal in the works for a 6-unit residential building at the former site of the Torch for Truth Tabernacle on Church Avenue, which (rather ironically) burned down last August. I think the added density can only be good for this area.

This proposal is in the environs of Main Street West, one of the only intact 'urban' commercial streets we have remaining outside of the Uptown. Straddling the ridge between Reversing Falls and the Fairville Boulevard retail area, it's a neighbourhood that's been designated as a "mixed-use centre" in PlanSJ:



I was over there Wednesday while running errands (I'm a loyal patron of Steen's for haircuts), and decided to snap a few photos to illustrate the area's current state and future potential. Apologies for the quality: they're taken with my phone, and it was typical SJ spring weather, so they are rather grey. The smell of wood chips from the pulp mill below was also in the air as I walked around.

Main Street West Bird's Eye View
Main Street West in Google Streetview

Looking east toward Simms Corner and the former Centracare site:


The Moosehead Brewery dominates the eastern stretches of the street:


Looking west from the same intersection:


The head office section of the Moosehead plant was renovated a few years back to look a bit less industrial:


It's not just the imposing plant itself that impacts this stretch of the street, but also spillover of worker parking into vacant lots. Derek Oland's parking space is two spaces off frame to the left:


The former site of the Moosehead Country Store (demolished). The large number of vacant lots are currently a major blight on the street, but in the long run will offer great opportunities for infill and densification of the neighbourhood:


Residential sidestreets, both to the north and south, likewise offer opportunities to increase density in the immediate area and bring vibrancy back to the street:




So what exactly is left on Main Street West? A handful of local businesses and several banks, serving as reminders of this area's role as 'downtown' for the former city of Lancaster:


The Old Post office, renovated into a Deluxe French Fries location:




The most intact commercial section of the street is between Walnut Street and Church Avenue:




Vacant lot next door to the Scotiabank. Any mid/high rise developments along the street would have commanding views of the Saint John River on one side and Fairville Boulevard on the other:










Looking down Church Avenue, which includes the former fire station (now a hairdresser IIRC) and the former 'new' Post Office (now abandoned):


Looking down Manawagonish Road toward the Church of the Good Shepherd and Lancaster Plaza. This strip mall housed Lawtons Drugstore until their new location opened down the hill on Catherwood Street. It's still home to a Tim Hortons and some other shops, clinics and restaurants:


Main Street West today is rather sleepy, but the businesses are still frequented by locals and there is constant turnover of the on-street parking spaces. It's one of the few areas outside of the Uptown I can see commanding a trendy urban commercial vibe in the future, without the radical transformations necessary on some of our corridors that fell to urban renewal. Just imagine a couple hundred more residential units in the surrounding blocks, a few strategic mixed-use infill developments along the street, and a couple trendy cafes to spice up the street life: the only thing left would be to brand it 'Lancaster Village'!
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  #8623  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 6:10 AM
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I saw Blaine Higgs at the Manning conference earlier this month. They had Matt Koch from the US promoting the pipeline to the US and they had Dr. Wenran Jiang promoting the pipeline to BC/China. Their pitches consisted of the pipeline going to their respective jurisdictions because they felt they each deserved it. I was left with the impression they were making some kind of emotional appeal. I really expected more from Dr Jiang especially because of all the China hype these days, but that's the impression I was left with.

Mr Higgs came with a plan. He showed the infrastructure that currently exists in and around Saint John. He showed how Saint John is a lot closer in many instances to many major markets where Alberta isn't selling right now. He showed how easy it would be to COMPLETE the pipeline to Saint John. He showed an ability to complete multi billion dollar projects once the decision is made to do it. He showed how quickly this plan has come together once the idea got rolling. And he showed how it needed to be done as a national goal.

David Black is a media guy promoting a $25B refinery plan that would be questionable just because - what has he done in the oil business? He seems to be like a lot of promoters with big ideas. His argument is that Saint John must fail for him to succeed. It’s a zero-sum game in his plan. In reality, they are aiming at different markets. He’s a long shot to make it work in the end.

The Americans are in no hurry to approve a Canadian pipeline with the Rockefeller's fighting it all the way in the Canadian courts and public. It's not just the Rockefeller's either. The Bakken is what they are planning on and the longer they keep Canada out of the market, the better it will be for them.

Blaine Higgs not only impressed me, but I think he made quite a few converts of key economic decision makers who were there. The moderator of the discussion was Gwyn Morgan. You can check some of his credentials here:

http://mnc2013.ca/speakers/gwyn-morgan-manning-centre/

Gwyn Morgan made a VERY positive statement about Blaine Higgs presentation which I thought normally wouldn't come from a moderator, but I believe he and many others perhaps were sold at this meeting.

Unfortunately I can't find any video on it, but it was truly a good pitch for New Brunswick and for Saint John in particular. Blaine Higgs understands the oil business. He presented a business case why this pipeline needs to be built no matter what happens elsewhere. And if it’s built, it will help Canada overall.
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  #8624  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 11:17 AM
cdnguys cdnguys is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLeagues View Post
I guess me and my work in Fort McMurray rules me out?



The key thing in all of these talks is south of the 49th paralell. It is called the Bakken oil fields.

It has been well noted that the USA will be a net exporter of oil by 2025, if not sooner.

The USA will not need Canadian oil. Why? Because of the Bakken oil field. The price to produce a barrel of light oil from bakken is currently around $50. This is already cheaper than it costs to produce a barrel of oil sands from Alberta, depending on which process used.

In my opinnion the world oil price is going back down to $50 a barrel, or LOWER. This is not only going to be bad for Alberta's economy, it is also going to be bad for the Canadian economy as a whole.

The USA and their free enterprising ways will sell as much of their oil as they can. The US is heavily relying on the Bakken oil to be the key in their next economic boom. If Canada is lucky, they will get a piece of it. As well, if Canada is lucky, it will not put the death knell into the oil sands of Alberta.

What do you think the Saudi's, Russia and all the other big oil players are going to do? Do you think they are going to turn the spiggot off?

As the headline in papers and news reports read last fall: Bakken: Game CHANGER
The refinery in Saint John is already refining Bakken field oil, and can continue to do so instead of Alberta oil or Brent Sea priced oil (once they ramp up Bakken shipments). It comes by rail (see new terminus at end of causeway) and it is also shipped from a terminal in Albany, NY down the Hudson River then up to Saint John. The IOL refinery with 80% of its output going to the USA is basically an American refinery on Canadian soil. When it comes to world oil and fuel markets, national boundaries means absolutely nothing. Irving competitors in the NE USA marketplace are Gulf refineries - have been for years and the fact that they will be processing cheaper Bakken oil doesn't change the logistics of Irving maintaining its marketplace, or even growing it.
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  #8625  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 11:35 AM
cdnguys cdnguys is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ottawa View Post
I saw Blaine Higgs at the Manning conference earlier this month. They had Matt Koch from the US promoting the pipeline to the US and they had Dr. Wenran Jiang promoting the pipeline to BC/China. Their pitches consisted of the pipeline going to their respective jurisdictions because they felt they each deserved it. I was left with the impression they were making some kind of emotional appeal. I really expected more from Dr Jiang especially because of all the China hype these days, but that's the impression I was left with.

Mr Higgs came with a plan. He showed the infrastructure that currently exists in and around Saint John. He showed how Saint John is a lot closer in many instances to many major markets where Alberta isn't selling right now. He showed how easy it would be to COMPLETE the pipeline to Saint John. He showed an ability to complete multi billion dollar projects once the decision is made to do it. He showed how quickly this plan has come together once the idea got rolling. And he showed how it needed to be done as a national goal.

David Black is a media guy promoting a $25B refinery plan that would be questionable just because - what has he done in the oil business? He seems to be like a lot of promoters with big ideas. His argument is that Saint John must fail for him to succeed. It’s a zero-sum game in his plan. In reality, they are aiming at different markets. He’s a long shot to make it work in the end.

The Americans are in no hurry to approve a Canadian pipeline with the Rockefeller's fighting it all the way in the Canadian courts and public. It's not just the Rockefeller's either. The Bakken is what they are planning on and the longer they keep Canada out of the market, the better it will be for them.

Blaine Higgs not only impressed me, but I think he made quite a few converts of key economic decision makers who were there. The moderator of the discussion was Gwyn Morgan. You can check some of his credentials here:

http://mnc2013.ca/speakers/gwyn-morgan-manning-centre/

Gwyn Morgan made a VERY positive statement about Blaine Higgs presentation which I thought normally wouldn't come from a moderator, but I believe he and many others perhaps were sold at this meeting.

Unfortunately I can't find any video on it, but it was truly a good pitch for New Brunswick and for Saint John in particular. Blaine Higgs understands the oil business. He presented a business case why this pipeline needs to be built no matter what happens elsewhere. And if it’s built, it will help Canada overall.
I would like to also add to your comments that the difference between this project and others projects is all party's involved are "on board". Alberta wants this, New Brunswick wants this, the Feds want this, SJ & Irving wants this, Port of Saint John wants this and most importantly - QUEBEC!!! (So they can feed their Levis refinery). The pipeline already terminates in Eastern Canada - it just needs to be extended. Other pipeline proposals are running into protests by governments, environmentalists and First Nations people.
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  #8626  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 8:51 PM
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Great phototour Fischbob! I agree that the Main Street West area is ripe for development and hopefully sees some infill and densification in the future. I noticed that when the church burnt down and property was put up for sale that it sold very quickly, so there must have been some interest in it. If there is a plan for a six-unit residential then that will add some density to that end of the area.

And I, too, go to Steen's for haircuts
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  #8627  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2013, 10:23 PM
cdnguys cdnguys is offline
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News release from Buckeye that didn't receive any press coverage here:
(Note this is for Bakken field oil)

HOUSTON, October 11, 2012 — Buckeye Partners, L.P. (“Buckeye”) (NYSE: BPL) announced today that it has reached a multi-year agreement with a subsidiary of Irving Oil Limited (“Irving Oil”) to provide crude oil services at its terminal located in Albany, New York, including off-loading unit-trains, storage, and throughput. The approximately 1.8 million barrel storage facility located within the Port of Albany along the Hudson River is expected to begin handling crude oil on November 1, 2012. Buckeye plans to make modifications to the Albany terminal that, once completed, will allow the terminal to handle both crude oil and ethanol unit-trains with a total capacity in excess of 135,000 barrels per day.
“Rail transport has become a critical component of the logistics chain as domestic crude oil production has increased significantly,” said Clark C. Smith, Buckeye’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “The addition of crude oil services at our Albany terminal is part of our strategy to increase and improve the utilization of our existing assets. We are excited to continue to develop these kinds of opportunities with a strategic partner such as Irving Oil.”
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE: BPL) is a publicly traded master limited partnership that owns and operates one of the largest independent liquid petroleum products pipeline systems in the United States in terms of volumes delivered, with over 6,000 miles of pipeline. Buckeye also owns approximately 100 liquid petroleum products terminals with aggregate storage capacity of approximately 69 million barrels, operates and/or maintains approximately 2,800 miles of pipeline under agreements with major oil and chemical companies, owns a high-performance natural gas storage facility in Northern California, and markets liquid petroleum products in certain regions served by its pipeline and terminal operations. Buckeye’s flagship marine terminal in The Bahamas, BORCO, is one of the largest crude oil and petroleum products storage facilities in the world, serving the international markets as a premier global logistics hub. More information concerning Buckeye can be found at www.buckeye.com.
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  #8628  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2013, 2:23 AM
CdnEh CdnEh is offline
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Rogers has announced plans to roll out their new LTE network to the Saint John area in the near future.

http://redboard.rogers.com/2013/rogers-lte-network-expanding-to-a-market-near-you-this-spring/

Nice to see them continue to roll this out in Atlantic Canada. Moncton was the first (and so far only) NB city in which Rogers has had LTE coverage (since August of last year), and Bell recently rolled out their network in the city a few weeks ago.
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  #8629  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2013, 4:11 AM
BLeagues BLeagues is offline
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I'm well aware of what the IOL refinery in SJ is doing. SJ will always be my 'home'. I do stay in contact with friends and family still there.

There is a big difference between the light crude being pumped out of the Bakken fields in North Dakota and the tar like oil that comes from the oil sands of Alberta.

Where the IOL refinery is already refining the Bakken light crude there is obviously no need to upgrade any of its current components.

The RUP program from the late 90's allowed the IOL refinery to process low grade crude. With that said, I have been lead to believe that it would not take much of an upgrade to refine the tar like oil sands from Alberta.

I hope that there is a press conference some time this year where the word billion(s) is thrown around. I'd be back home, in SJ, in a heart beat. But I am not holding my breath on that happening.


Quote:
Originally Posted by cdnguys View Post
The refinery in Saint John is already refining Bakken field oil, and can continue to do so instead of Alberta oil or Brent Sea priced oil (once they ramp up Bakken shipments). It comes by rail (see new terminus at end of causeway) and it is also shipped from a terminal in Albany, NY down the Hudson River then up to Saint John. The IOL refinery with 80% of its output going to the USA is basically an American refinery on Canadian soil. When it comes to world oil and fuel markets, national boundaries means absolutely nothing. Irving competitors in the NE USA marketplace are Gulf refineries - have been for years and the fact that they will be processing cheaper Bakken oil doesn't change the logistics of Irving maintaining its marketplace, or even growing it.
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  #8630  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2013, 10:46 AM
cdnguys cdnguys is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLeagues View Post
I'm well aware of what the IOL refinery in SJ is doing. SJ will always be my 'home'. I do stay in contact with friends and family still there.

There is a big difference between the light crude being pumped out of the Bakken fields in North Dakota and the tar like oil that comes from the oil sands of Alberta.

Where the IOL refinery is already refining the Bakken light crude there is obviously no need to upgrade any of its current components.

The RUP program from the late 90's allowed the IOL refinery to process low grade crude. With that said, I have been lead to believe that it would not take much of an upgrade to refine the tar like oil sands from Alberta.

I hope that there is a press conference some time this year where the word billion(s) is thrown around. I'd be back home, in SJ, in a heart beat. But I am not holding my breath on that happening.
The tar sands is bitumen that needs upgrading to a synthetic oil. IOL cannot process this without the addition of a Coker unit. It's not a small investment.
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  #8631  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2013, 7:32 PM
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City Council Agenda Notes (April 2nd, 2013):

- Proposal for a Scholten's convenience store on the former PetroCan site at 835 Loch Lomond.
- Proposal for an Irving/NBAL on 4211 Loch Lomond (across from Airport).
- Correspondence from Uptown Saint John re: wanting to be involved in the process for the Jelly Bean Buildings, Long Wharf, and the Lantic Sugar Refinery site.
- There will be a public hearing for 60 Church Avenue on Monday, April 29th, 7:00 at Council Chamber. As mentioned previously in this thread this is to permit the construction of a six (6) unit apartment building.
- L'il Gelato & Sweet Shop is looking at replacing Hodo Cookies in the City Market. Issues with leasing being discussed currently.

https://www.documents.saintjohn.ca/weblink8/0/doc/54480/Electronic.aspx
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  #8632  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 2:10 PM
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On the contrary.

When the City reviewed the heritage bylaw about 8 years ago they, in fact, brought in more lenient standards that allows for a great deal more flexibility than the old regulations ever permitted. Unfortunately, it's a little known fact and the old stereotype that "heritage rules don't let you do anything" still persists.

Remember when it used to be the "Preservation Review Board?" They even rebranded themselves as the "Heritage DEVELOPMENT Board" in an effort to show that they are more development friendly. I've worked very closely with these regulations and can attest to their flexibility. As a good example, do you remember the fantastic little patio outside happinez wine bar on Princess Street (http://theacre.ca/theprojects/hapito-patio-happinez-wine-bar/)? There is not one "heritage" thing about it but it was fully reviewed and approved by the board under the current regulations.

The opinions of the heritage board members, on the other hand, might be another story altogether but what we're lacking more than anything is good, forward looking projects, developers willing to push the envelope, and to drop this silly notion that you can't build anything modern in the conservation areas.
I am aware that things are different than they used to be, but that doesn't change the fact that overall we do not have effective systems in place as a city to protect heritage buildings, by finding uses for them or providing economic development incentives [or dis-incentives] for heritage areas to allow the market to finance the up-keep the buildings themselves. It has to be a multi-faceted approach, not simply an issue of instituting rules and by-laws on design and hoping people will come forward to abide by them, throwing small facade grants and awards at them to make everyone feel better. It's not a uniquely Saint John problem, look at almost every city in Canada and you'll see the same thing, you have to go to areas of Boston or Philadelphia, etc. to find heritage areas that work economically and are desirable for residents and businesses alike.
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  #8633  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 2:12 PM
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Quote:
TransCanada Launches Binding Open Season for Eastern Oil Pipeline

CALGARY, Alberta – April 2, 2013 – TransCanada Corporation (TSX, NYSE: TRP) (TransCanada) announced today that it will hold a binding open season to obtain firm commitments from interested parties for a pipeline to transport crude oil from Western Canada to Eastern Canadian markets.

The Energy East Pipeline project involves converting natural gas pipeline capacity in approximately 3,000 kilometres of TransCanada’s existing Canadian Mainline to crude oil service and constructing up to approximately 1,400 kilometres of new pipeline. Subject to the results of the open season, the project will have the capacity to transport as much as 850,000 barrels of crude oil per day, greatly enhancing producer access to markets in Eastern Canada. In 2012, Canada imported more than 600,000 barrels per day to supply its Eastern refineries. The Energy East Pipeline could eliminate Canada’s reliance on higher priced crude oil currently being imported.

The open season follows a successful expression of interest phase and subsequent discussions with prospective shippers. Following the completion of the open season, if it is successful, TransCanada intends to proceed with the necessary regulatory applications for approvals to construct and operate the required facilities, with a potential in-service date in late-2017. TransCanada is beginning Aboriginal and stakeholder engagement and field work as part of the initial design and planning work for the project.

The open season will begin on April 15, 2013 and will close on June 17, 2013. Interested parties may submit binding bids for transportation capacity of crude oil from western receipt points to delivery points in the Montreal and Québec City, Que. and Saint John, N.B. areas. Shipper information regarding the open season is available by contacting Louis Fenyvesi at 403.920.6037 or Oliver Youzwishen at 403.920.8094, or by emailing [email protected]

With more than 60 years’ experience, TransCanada is a leader in the responsible development and reliable operation of North American energy infrastructure including natural gas and oil pipelines, power generation and gas storage facilities. TransCanada operates a network of natural gas pipelines that extends more than 68,500 kilometres (42,500 miles), tapping into virtually all major gas supply basins in North America. TransCanada is one of the continent's largest providers of gas storage and related services with more than 400 billion cubic feet of storage capacity. A growing independent power producer, TransCanada owns or has interests in over 11,800 megawatts of power generation in Canada and the United States. TransCanada is developing one of North America's largest oil delivery systems. TransCanada's common shares trade on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges under the symbol TRP. For more information visit: www.transcanada.com or check us out on Twitter @TransCanada or http://blog.transcanada.com.
Announcement:

http://transcanada.com/6280.html
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  #8634  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 2:55 PM
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Things are starting to fall in place. Interestingly the Globe and Mail is reporting it may also feed the Dartmouth refinery, which is at a high risk of closing this year without a buyer. It doesn't say if it will be by pipeline or shipped from Port of Saint John (which would make sense).
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  #8635  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 3:26 PM
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Here is the proposed pipeline trek across NB courtesy of Lamespotting:

http://www.transcanada.com/images/Pipeline_Projects/EE_Route_Map_NB.jpg
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  #8636  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 3:36 PM
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Interesting. Weren't they also considering a trek across Northern Maine as an option too, or do they want to keep it in country?

I know it was a small disaster, but that pipeline spill over the weekend made me think it might be good news for the Saint John route (as in it would crimp the Keystone plans again)
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  #8637  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 3:47 PM
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The proposed pipeline appears to terminate in Lorneville or West Saint John. I wonder if the pipeline will go under water to Canaport??
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  #8638  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 4:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freddypop View Post
Here is the proposed pipeline trek across NB courtesy of Lamespotting:

http://www.transcanada.com/images/Pipeline_Projects/EE_Route_Map_NB.jpg
As long as it isn't cost prohibitive, I would rather keep the pipeline in country too.....

It's really interesting how quickly this is all coming together. It makes you wonder that the decision has already been made and they are rushing things to keep ahead of the protesters.
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  #8639  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 4:09 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
As long as it isn't cost prohibitive, I would rather keep the pipeline in country too.....

It's really interesting how quickly this is all coming together. It makes you wonder that the decision has already been made and they are rushing things to keep ahead of the protesters.
I think you have hit the nail right on the head. This project and the Sisson tungsten mine will move ahead quickly. Factor in shale gas and all of a sudden things start looking rosy in the NB labour market. The whole province wins.

http://www.sissonproject.ca/s/Home.asp
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  #8640  
Old Posted Apr 2, 2013, 4:10 PM
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Originally Posted by cdnguys View Post
The proposed pipeline appears to terminate in Lorneville or West Saint John. I wonder if the pipeline will go under water to Canaport??
Is there not an existing pipeline from the refinery to Colson Cove?
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