The Official Saint John, NB Project Thread

[Wolkenkratzerliebhab]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

When the pipeline comes to Saint John, a second refinery will not be built. What will be built is a "Coker Unit" on front of the existing refinery to upgrade the bitumen so it can be processed. This will be a multi billion dollar investment. You can expect a couple thousand construction jobs, then once built 300 to 400 full time refining jobs. Irving will not announce this until pipeline is announced because they learned their lessons about setting expectations high prematurely. For example, the second refinery resulted in other projects being built that otherwise would probably not have been built without the hype. Chateau Saint John hotel is one that comes to mind. Voyageur upgrader cancelled in Alberta - bad for Alberta. Good for Saint John

Yes, it's true that a billion-dollar "Coker Unit" will be built at the current location, but some are saying that any Saint John facility could also significantly lead to the sale of Alberta crude to Europe, which if all goes well, could easily prompt the construction of a second refinery to meet the European market, which now depends mostly on 'iffy' Mid East supplies. The European market it the world's biggest and richest market, so I've got my fingers crossed on this one.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by Wolkenkratzerliebhab

Yes, it's true that a billion-dollar "Coker Unit" will be built at the current location, but some are saying that any Saint John facility could also significantly lead to the sale of Alberta crude to Europe, which if all goes well, could easily prompt the construction of a second refinery to meet the European market, which now depends mostly on 'iffy' Mid East supplies. The European market it the world's biggest and richest market, so I've got my fingers crossed on this one.

I would love to see a second refinery, but I can assure you it will never happen. Any glimmer of hope of selling product to Europe was diminished with the recent fight by Europeans to keep "dirty oil" AKA any product derived from tar sands out of the European market place. However I will say that the coker unit is much more than a 1 billion dollar investment. It may be "almost as good" as a small new refinery.


The EU’s review of the Fuel Quality Directive sets a 6% emissions reduction target for transport fuels. Under proposed amendments, the EU will rank fuel sources according to the carbon-intensity, with the greener varieties contributing more towards the 6% target. The EU proposal is to label oil extracted from tar sands as causing 22% more greenhouse gas emissions than conventionally-sourced oil.

[Peter_johnns]

The pipeline and pot ash will mean an obvious boom for the city. but when it does happen, i am hoping perhaps with the revenue for the city, saint john can invest in diversifying the citiy's economy further. along with investing in the uptown... those are my hopes

[cdnguys]

I agree about diversification. I would like to see life sciences and IT sectors to continue to grow. In Moncton I hope they continue with success in the light manufacturing and distribution sectors. I am worried about their call centre industry with changing technology (someone here mentioned that before). Banking with mobile phone aps is going to grow exponentially affecting how banks do business with customers.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by Peter_johnns

The pipeline and pot ash will mean an obvious boom for the city. but when it does happen, i am hoping perhaps with the revenue for the city, saint john can invest in diversifying the citiy's economy further. along with investing in the uptown... those are my hopes

Higgs mentioned a 2017 timeline for the pipeline. not sure whether that is a start or finish but assume it is the start.

[Peter_johnns]

on a side note. the city and UNB need to make the school more accessible. commuter campus is an old way of thinking. relocate perhaps the business faculty to the uptown would be a great start.

[cdnguys]

The National Energy Board ended an epic battle Wednesday over the future of TransCanada Corp.’s natural gas Mainline by refusing to allow it to be subsidized by short-haul routes and by adjusting long-term tolls to a lower level to make it more attractive to shippers.

It’s now time to turn the page for Canada’s 50-year-old backbone energy transporation system and step up efforts to put it to even better use — by turning parts of it into an oil pipeline and open a new market for Alberta’s oil in Canada’s East.

Signalling that it’s ready to proceed, TransCanada started an open season for the gas-to-oil conversion this week, which could allow as much as one million barrels a day of Western Canadian oil to move to Montreal and as far as the East Coast.

In a late afternoon decision, the NEB said it would approve lower multi-year tolls for the natural gas pipeline between Alberta and Quebec — from Empress, Alta., to Dawn, Ont. — at $1.42 per gigajoule compared to a 2013 toll of $2.58 gigajoule that would have resulted from TransCanada’s existing tolling methodology. The tolls are fixed until 2017.

The lower tolls, combined with stronger natural gas prices, will boost the attractiveness for Western Canadian gas producers of the regulated 14,101 kilometres of infrastructure.

Shipments on the pipeline collapsed because of the discovery of shale gas deposits closer to eastern markets that depressed prices for Western Canadian natural gas and made transportation to Eastern Canada uneconomic.

The NEB rejected TransCanada’s key proposal to shift costs from TransCanada’s Alberta system to subsidize the Mainline.

“Among other things, the board viewed the Alberta System Extension as inappropriate cost-shifting among affiliate companies that is contrary to sound tolling principles,” the NEB said in a news release.

Related

National Energy Board approves new tolls for TransCanada’s Mainline pipeline
Gas producers await TransCanada mainline toll ruling
TransCanada said in a statement it needed time to complete a full analysis after the NEB “denied a number of the fundamental concepts we put forward to improve competitiveness and recover costs. The board has also introduced several new elements that were not part of our application, including fixing tolls outside the timeframe applied for.”

But the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers welcomed the ruling, saying it confirms that costs cannot be shifted from one pipeline to another.

“The tolls that the NEB approved reflect a multi-year concept, which is a concept that CAPP advocated,” said Nikol Schultz, vice-president for pipeline regulation and general counsel at the Calgary-based industry organization, which represented producer interests during lengthy hearings to determine the Mainline’s future.

“Toll stability is important to the market place.”

The decision does not deal with the oil conversion, a proposal that has been moving on a separate track. But the NEB does say it has provided TransCanada with the tools it requires “to achieve positive outcomes for its investors and customers, and … must now use those tools to construct a viable future.”

The Mainline is composed of six tubes across the Prairies. TransCanada has talked about continuing to use five to move gas. Conversion of one would allow it to transport between 500,000 and one million barrels a day. Some pipeline construction would still be required to fill in gaps and the end point — whether Montreal or the East Coast — has not been finalized.

With the NEB promising a streamlined regulatory process for the Mainline to address new service and construction expected to take one year to 18 months, a converted Mainline is in good standing to beat to the finish line other proposed oil pipelines.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by Freddypop

Higgs mentioned a 2017 timeline for the pipeline. not sure whether that is a start or finish but assume it is the start.

My understanding is pipeline would reach city by 2017. In the interim period Irving will get their coker built. I'm guessing when the pipeline deal is signed irving will hit the ground running. I'm confident they have engineers working on plans now based on the amount of new engineers they hired.

[KnoxfordGuy]

My God I hope this all happens and our dreams aren't smashed to pieces...again

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

My God I hope this all happens and our dreams aren't smashed to pieces...again

Best thing to do is to keep expectations low

I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions about Saint John entering a boom before any of this is confirmed. We all have to wait and see what these situations bring. I would prefer to call a certain period of time a boom after it has occurred rather than predicting one. Generally when you try to predict a period as a boom you're only left with disappointment when it doesn't turn out as expected.

Hopefully all of these projects move forward, and hopefully the City doesn't give out sweetheart deals on industrial taxation like in the past. Currently we have Potash Fertilizing + Shipping Facility, EW Pipeline + Coker/Second Refinery, Lorneville Barge Terminal, and all of the spinoffs that would be associated with those. Fingers crossed. As others have stated diversification is definitely an important facet moving forward and I believe that is something that the current city council aims towards in their mandate. It's great to have a strong industrial base but it's not great putting all of your eggs in that single basket. We're seeing that problem in Alberta and Newfoundland right now.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Best thing to do is to keep expectations low

I wouldn't jump to too many conclusions about Saint John entering a boom before any of this is confirmed. We all have to wait and see what these situations bring. I would prefer to call a certain period of time a boom after it has occurred rather than predicting one. Generally when you try to predict a period as a boom you're only left with disappointment when it doesn't turn out as expected.

Hopefully all of these projects move forward, and hopefully the City doesn't give out sweetheart deals on industrial taxation like in the past. Currently we have Potash Fertilizing + Shipping Facility, EW Pipeline + Coker/Second Refinery, Lorneville Barge Terminal, and all of the spinoffs that would be associated with those. Fingers crossed. As others have stated diversification is definitely an important facet moving forward and I believe that is something that the current city council aims towards in their mandate. It's great to have a strong industrial base but it's not great putting all of your eggs in that single basket. We're seeing that problem in Alberta and Newfoundland right now.

You forgot the Chinese electric car factory

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

You forgot the Chinese electric car factory

...?

In related news:

Originally Posted by GNB

Regional economic development offices open

FREDERICTON (GNB) – Twelve new economic development offices will open their doors on Tuesday, April 2, to provide quick and easy access to provincial funding programs.

“Our new offices will see staff in the regions working with small-and-medium-sized businesses to pursue strategic opportunities to help rebuild New Brunswick's economy,” said Economic Development Minister Paul Robichaud. “This new approach will allow entrepreneurs quick and efficient access to funding programs as we decentralize decision-making for programs and funding for small-and-medium-sized businesses.”

The Department of Economic Development is opening five district (Bathurst, Dieppe, Edmundston, Fredericton and Saint John) and seven satellite (Bouctouche, Campbellton, Miramichi, Shippagan, St. Stephen, Sussex and Woodstock) offices throughout New Brunswick.

Each district office will be staffed with a director, a planning co-ordinator and economic development officers with administrative support. An economic development officer will work in satellite offices.

“The model will reduce duplication and integrate the efforts of all partners to help ensure better economic outcomes, more efficient investments and a rebuilding of New Brunswick's economy,” said Robichaud.

The offices will support economic development activities pertaining to the recently-launched provincial export strategy Growing Global Markets: Ten actions to create a wealthier New Brunswick through exports, and work to grow the province's economy in six specific sectors:

● information and communications technology;
● biosciences;
● industrial fabrication;
● aerospace and defence;
● value-added wood; and
● value-added food.

The district office locations are:

● Bathurst: Suite 400, 275 Main St.;
● Dieppe : Suite 330, 200 Champlain St.;
● Edmundston: Suite 407, 121 Église St.;
● Fredericton: 5th Floor, 670 King St.; and
● Saint John: 40 King St.

In addition to the districts and offices being created, 12 advisory councils will be announced in May. The councils will provide advice to the provincial government about community, economic and business needs for their respective regions. Each advisory council will consist of members from the private sector, supported by one of the five district planning co-ordinators, the district directors, and each of the regional service commissions.

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2013.03.0266.html

[GUB]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

My God I hope this all happens and our dreams aren't smashed to pieces...again

If history is any indication, I wouldn't get your hopes up! I'm definitely not...
Would love to see it happen though.

[Fischbob]

No doubt that the pipeline would be HUGE for SJ, but after the rather disappointing Energy Hub talk of the last decade I'm keeping the most guarded optimism in relation to these new developments until shovels are in the ground. Of particular importance is the need to ensure that the pipeline doesn't just end in Montreal.

As peter_johnns mentioned, while we're keeping our fingers crossed for the resource-based windfalls like the pipeline and potash, we shouldn't forget about the need to diversify economically. Thankfully, we are blessed with an incredibly dynamic and successful ICT sector already: heard from the grapevine yesterday that Innovatia will be hiring a significant number of personnel.

I think the best thing NB could be doing economically has nothing to do with natural resources: indeed, over-reliance on them may actually hold the economy back in the long run. IMO, it's all about education and human capital/skills development, and in our case we can better orient our education system toward computer science and entrepreneurship in order to feed into the local ICT startup culture. That being said (and as the article I linked to mentioned), the money flowing from natural resource windfalls is still beneficial overall, especially if we are able to direct it into strategic diversification initiatives like human capital development.

Whatever the source, more skilled jobs in the city will lead to more disposable income circulating, more demand for housing of all stripes (including urban!), and better market prospects for other businesses. It is then a matter of channelling that demand into tangible private and public improvements to our urban fabric. This is the virtuous circle we need to be chasing!

[Peter_johnns]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

You forgot the Chinese electric car factory

What ever happened to that? lol

[weezerfaninfreddy]

I sure hope that something happens with the pipeline out east as it is doubtful that people in Southern BC would ever permit industrial expansion in the park they call Northern BC. A park they never visit lol.

I moved to Prince George after graduating from UNB and there is something like 60 Billion dollars in economic expansion in the area yet we have not seen anything really materialize yet due to the politics of oil and gas.

It is refreshing to hear some support for industrial expansion here in the Saint John forum.

Good luck with the pipeline, New Brunswick really needs this. When I go back every summer I keep noticing that a lot of initiatives are focused on Fredericton and Moncton. It is frustrating because I always thought that the New Brunswick tax base was Saint John.

[Helladog]

Originally Posted by Peter_johnns

What ever happened to that? lol

I hear they're breaking ground this spring on the factory and 30-storey HQ.

[BLeagues]

While I hope what you say is true:

Originally Posted by Wolkenkratzerliebhab

Yes, it's true that a billion-dollar "Coker Unit" will be built at the current location...

This says otherwise:

"Like many oil-sands producers, Total has its sights clearly trained on the huge refining hub on the U.S. Gulf Coast, where refiners have expanded their capacity to process heavy crude"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inv...nds-crude-to-gulf-coast/article10536822/

This proposed 500,000 BPD refinery in Kitimat BC is a lot more likely to happen than a new coker at the IOL refinery: "...In an interview on CTV’s Question Period Sunday, Black said he is in the process of obtaining memos of understanding from potential investors.
“They’re going to loan us the money to build a refinery and the pipeline if necessary,” http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/b-c-mogul-hopes-for-kitimat-refinery-deal-in-the-next-month-1.1199054

There will be some sort of a refit/new plant built at the IOL refinery, if a pipeline or access to Alberta oil sands comes to fruition. But anything in the billion dollar range is highly unlikely IMHO.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by BLeagues

While I hope what you say is true:



This says otherwise:

"Like many oil-sands producers, Total has its sights clearly trained on the huge refining hub on the U.S. Gulf Coast, where refiners have expanded their capacity to process heavy crude"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-inv...nds-crude-to-gulf-coast/article10536822/

This proposed 500,000 BPD refinery in Kitimat BC is a lot more likely to happen than a new coker at the IOL refinery: "...In an interview on CTV’s Question Period Sunday, Black said he is in the process of obtaining memos of understanding from potential investors.
“They’re going to loan us the money to build a refinery and the pipeline if necessary,” http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/b-c-mogul-hopes-for-kitimat-refinery-deal-in-the-next-month-1.1199054

There will be some sort of a refit/new plant built at the IOL refinery, if a pipeline or access to Alberta oil sands comes to fruition. But anything in the billion dollar range is highly unlikely IMHO.

Your right, it would not be in the Billion dollar range. It's in the 3 to 4 billion range. The cancelled upgrader in Alberta was $11B
As for Mr Black, for those of us in the energy industry nobody takes him seriously.

[Peter_johnns]

Originally Posted by weezerfaninfreddy

I sure hope that something happens with the pipeline out east as it is doubtful that people in Southern BC would ever permit industrial expansion in the park they call Northern BC. A park they never visit lol.

I moved to Prince George after graduating from UNB and there is something like 60 Billion dollars in economic expansion in the area yet we have not seen anything really materialize yet due to the politics of oil and gas.

It is refreshing to hear some support for industrial expansion here in the Saint John forum.

Good luck with the pipeline, New Brunswick really needs this. When I go back every summer I keep noticing that a lot of initiatives are focused on Fredericton and Moncton. It is frustrating because I always thought that the New Brunswick tax base was Saint John.

yeah... the province loves to screw Saint John... NBs best city