Urban vs Suburban - 2 styles enter, one style leaves!

[fusili]

Originally Posted by MasterG

What is the average density that is required to produce Main-street pedestrian style retail? i.e. Marda Loop.

Quick answer? I would say 5000 people per square km.

For reference, Barcelona is 16K/km2, Paris is ~20K/km2 (Parisian suburbs are actually really dense, and perhaps denser than the core) and Calgary is around 1.2K/km2 on average.

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by Radley77

In Calgary, it's once they have paid for their mortgage AND the car, there wasn't very much left over of after-tax income.

Youth today are becoming increasingly turned off from auto use and this has been dropping in the United States to all time lows recently from as far back as the 1960's.

I seriously doubt this couple has much of a mortgage, they probably made a killing on their old place.

And I don't believe for a second there is a real macro sociological trend against automobile ownership. Both in Canada, the US and EU15 have had an unbroken twenty year stretch of runaway increases in car ownership.

It isn't that Generation Fucked has decided they don't want cars, to say an articulate binary decision was made. They can't afford cars. They also apparently can't afford breast implants in large numbers. They can't afford much of anything. They're the most indebted generation and were launched into the worst job market in generations. Would the consumption trends of the 1950's have been well predicted by observing consumer behavior during the great depression?

[Elbownian]

I'd be curious to know how many people in the city are actually living completely car-free. Not just "I only use it on the weekends", but flat out no-car households, by choice. I actually have yet to meet another person that's done this voluntarily, which leads me to believe that even among urbanists, it's very hard to let go of the keys for good here. Understandable, as there are only a handful of communities in which it's a truly viable option. With the exception of small pockets immediately adjacent to LRT stations, I'd argue that only Kensington/Sunnyside, Beltline, and Mission/Cliff Bungalow (plus fringes of adjacent communities) really have adequate services and transit access to make car-free life truly functional.

One comment on lack of pathways/trails/greenspace in the inner city: my wife and I walked to the Inglewood Bird Sanctuary this past weekend. Could have followed the river paths the whole way, but we wanted to stop off at Crossroads and get some produce. A very pleasant trip, with everything from rivers to rail yards. Think I'll take a wander out again now, see if the bald eagle is back in the trees outside my building...

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by fusili

Funny. Most can afford a car, yet 50% of downtown workers take transit. Lots of people walk to work everyday and transit in Calgary is wildly successful (compare our 16% total ridership with cities in the states that are three times larger with barely 5% ridership).

The city is car optional already, just in certain areas. I don't think there is a city in the world where every single residence is "car optional."

Why do we have to discuss everything in such extreme terms. Can't we talk about how much of the city is car optional, rather than if it is or is't? Can't we talk about how much multi-family residential we can build, and not whether every single person should live in a high rise?

+1

Originally Posted by MasterG

It will be interesting to see how the Beltline evolves. As we all know, it is continuing its trend of a new condo or two per year forever. Density is always increasing, road infrastructure will see growing pressure to meet the needs of the local community versus commuter traffic ( see 8th street redevelopment).

As the inner city is very much pedestrian/transit focused, it is reasonable to see that trend continue as the city densifies. Likely it will expand to inner city communities that are transitioning to higher densities (marda Loop, inner NW, Bridgeland etc.). This will put further pressure on auto-commuters as largely their needs are not nicely aligned with inner city citizens who don't rely or focus on car commuting as much.

The real interest will be when they start changing traffic operations, not necessarily building or removing infrastructure. What happens when too many people get hit by the stream of cars on 10th ave S and the traffic warrants lights for the growing pedestrian base to the south?

Right now the Priority for 10th, 11th, and 12th are all for West -East auto-commuters to the 'burbs (and elsewhere). It is foreseeable that eventually these will be adjusted to reflect the reality that there are more and more people walking N-S to the point they will get the priority and the smooth sailing down 10th Ave will come to an abrupt end.

I see it as one of the pendulum arguments. Largely auto-focused, cars got priority. Car-focused design over-reached and the demographics are changing to a more mixed commuting pattern as density increases. Unfortunately, car commuters will have to give up some space it seems, there just isn't any other group that has space to give.

My thoughts.

I agree with your forecast: more local interests in inner city roads could spell the end to the freeway status of major roads like Macleod, Memorial, Bow (WV/6/9/11/12aves), 16th Ave N, Ed Trail, Centre St N, etc. Expect more crosswalks, slower speeds, narrower roads, wider sidewalks, more retail, more trees, and more residential on these corridors. This means even more people will ride train/bus, so get ready for that too.

I think Calgary has a good framework to build upon. There's plenty of room to build without requiring new roads or even farther distances. In the next 10-20 years the next ring of communities will considerably diversity, but don't worry, there will always be more suburbs.

[Ramsayfarian]

Slightly off topic, but I wanted to share this video from SSP last meet-up.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

I seriously doubt this couple has much of a mortgage, they probably made a killing on their old place.

And I don't believe for a second there is a real macro sociological trend against automobile ownership. Both in Canada, the US and EU15 have had an unbroken twenty year stretch of runaway increases in car ownership.

It isn't that Generation Fucked has decided they don't want cars, to say an articulate binary decision was made. They can't afford cars. They also apparently can't afford breast implants in large numbers. They can't afford much of anything. They're the most indebted generation and were launched into the worst job market in generations. Would the consumption trends of the 1950's have been well predicted by observing consumer behavior during the great depression?

The following graph of miles driven, note the change in trend since the recession. There really hasn't been anything seen like this in decades. Not only are young Americans no longer getting licenses but they are also driving less miles:



If this were on a per capita basis, you'd see that people are trending to drive less.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by fusili

Will it work though? It is not like residents of Wards 4, 7, 8, 9 and 11 (the "urban" wards) are really that sympathetic to housing affordability out in the burbs. The "suburban" wards already pretty much have suburban champions already (wards 2, 3, 6, 12, 13, 14) and the established community wards (1, 5, 10) are pretty in between. So who do you target? It's not like Shane Keating or Peter Demong are anti-suburb. Doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me in a ward system. If this was a proportional representation system, they could drum up support for pro-suburb councilors.

The reason I think we are seeing densification happen is that inner city councillors (Farrell, Carra, Pincott, Mar and Macleod) are generally quite supportive of it, and the suburban councilors are good to support it because it really doesn't affect them. The biggest fights (not between communities and developers but between members of council) come when density is proposed in a "suburban" ward, like Shawnee Slopes in DCU's ward. There were quite a few spats between Colley-Urquhart and Farrell during the Shawnee Slopes deliberations.

Not sure...

Carra does a great job of representing local interests and I've heard much the same from the community association presidents and business leaders in the meetings I've had.

Maybe just more concerned in a scenario where there is some vote splitting, or that some candidates (i.e: Mar) aren't advocating enough change.

[Policy Wonk]

Well, if you don't have a job presumably driving to your old office and just sitting in the parking lot would be frowned upon. You can plot a similar chart for all sorts of consumption.

American's are not culturally turning away from the car. But increasingly many young people can't afford to operate one. You can't say that somebody who has not acquired something that is presently unattainable to them has chosen not to. That is like saying after careful consideration I decided against taking Katy Perry as a mistress.

[sim]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

I seriously doubt this couple has much of a mortgage, they probably made a killing on their old place.

And I don't believe for a second there is a real macro sociological trend against automobile ownership. Both in Canada, the US and EU15 have had an unbroken twenty year stretch of runaway increases in car ownership.

There you go disregarding numbers again. But you're not playing... It makes it easier to not be wrong.

[RyLucky]

I give you... RYLUCKY'S DIVERSITY HIERARCHY OF CALGARY NEIGHBOURHOODS...hoods... hoods... hoods...

TIER ONE: Mission, Kenstington/Sunnyside. That's it.

TIER TWO: Inglewood, Ramsay, Bridgeland, Lower Mount Royal.

TIER THREE: Bankview, Renfrew, West Hillhurst, Crescent Heights, Marda Loop, Garrison Woods, Sunalta (newly admitted to tier 3 after completion of the WLRT - if WV ever happens, expect another bump).

TIER FOUR: Tuxedo Park, Parkdale, Killarney, Altadore, Elboya, Shaganappi, Mount Royal (only because I have to eventually include it), Scarboro, Elbow Park, Capitol Hill, Bowness, Forest Lawn.

TIER FIVE: Wildwood, Spruce Cliff, North Glenmore, Mayfair, Banff Trail, Montgomery, Rosemont, Charleswood, Brentwood, Cambrian Hieghts, Varsity, Glamorgan, Glenbrook, Rosscarrock, Lakeview, McKenzie Towne, Ogden, St Andrews, University Heights.

TIER SIX: Radisson Heights, Southview, Riverbend, Dover, Mayland, Thorncliff, Dalhousie, Coach Hill, Strathcona, Signal Hill, Aspen, Pump Hill, Oakridge, Woodbine, Canyon Meadows, Southwood, Acadia, Riverbend, Chinook Park, Fairview, Canyon Meadows, Tuscany ... well, let's just say everything else except tier 7.

TIER SEVEN: Cougar Ridge, Valley Ridge, Simons Valley, Citadel, Arbour Lake, Royal Oak, Panorama Hills, Evanston, Erin Woods, Douglas Glen, New Brighton, Copperfield, Auburn Bay, Cranston, Chaparrel.

That's it. By "diversity" I mean you can live there whatever your income, there are a variety of housing choices from SFH to condos, a variety of transportation options, a variety of lifestyle options (parks, food, culture, entertainment), etc. I'm deliberately excluding Chinatown, East Village, Eau Claire, the West End, and the three Beltline communities, because these are all destined for massive density. Naturally, this list will offend some people, but it's the truth. Also, don't correct me if something is not officially the name of a neighbourhoud. Sometimes a tough commute knocked down an otherwise great community, and sometimes a great location couldn't save a community from NIMBY millionaires. So, about half the city is in tier 6, but a lot will change as new communities grow trees, get schools, and develop a culture. Nothing stays in Tier 7 forever.

A lot of these communities will move up a tier or three in the next couple decades, ESPECIALLY the ones in east Calgary, along the NC/SELRT, and those adjacent to tier 2&3 communities. A lot of good communities in what I will call the "car-2-go drop-off zone" could be great if there were only a few more places to walk. I think secondary suites, re-purposing strip malls, and modest rezoning along underutilized corridors could really get them there. No existing residents would have to change a thing about how they live except they would have a few more choices to spend their money locally, they wouldn't have to watch the local school shut down after 30 years, and maybe they could retire in the same community.

[RyLucky]

Originally Posted by Elbownian

I'd be curious to know how many people in the city are actually living completely car-free.

I could do it. Anyone want to buy a 1-year old Honda with <15k on it? (I took it on a 3k road trip)

[Policy Wonk]

My scanner at home won't do ledger size, so you will have to take my word for it till I get back to work on Tuesday.

Passenger car ownership per 1000 inhabitants 1995-2009

Austria: 423/528
Belgium: 422/471
Denmark: 332/386
Finland: 372/484
France: 421/490
Germany: 417/551
Greece: 235/419
Ireland: 275/430
Italy: 529/603
Luxembourg: 711/700
Netherlands: 367/449
Portugal: 252/355
Spain: 361/474
Sweden: 412/481
United Kingdom: 354/463

If you throw in the new EU members where in 1995 they were just emerging from communism the numbers are even more dramatic.

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

And I don't believe for a second there is a real macro sociological trend against automobile ownership. Both in Canada, the US and EU15 have had an unbroken twenty year stretch of runaway increases in car ownership.

You need a better internet provider; apparently there is a 6 year lag on your posts.

EU Car Sales Slump, WSJ January 16, 2013
European auto manufacturers Wednesday said demand for new cars in the European Union fell to the lowest level in 17 years and warned worse may be to come before the market stabilizes. [...] New registrations, a proxy for sales, shrank 8.2% in 2012 to a little over 12 million units and are set to drop further in 2013 [...] "I wouldn't say the whole of the European market is saturated, but that is certainly true for the core 15 member countries of the EU," said ACEA (European auto manufacturer trade group) Secretary General Ivan Hodac.

In the United States:

[Policy Wonk]

Your link doesn't work. Europe is in an economic crisis if you hadn't heard. I'm sure the article you cite probably mentions something about that.

So, all the cars on the road in 2009 have ceased to exist? There isn't a 1:1 replacement ratio for vehicles. But my understanding is total per-capita numbers continued to increase as of the second-half of last year.

[sim]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

Your link doesn't work. Europe is in an economic crisis if you hadn't heard. I'm sure the article you cite probably mentions something about that.

So, all the cars on the road in 2009 have ceased to exist? There isn't a 1:1 replacement ratio for vehicles. But my understanding is total per-capita numbers continued to increase as of the second-half of last year.

Seems your understanding is aloof and irrelevant. Disrespect begets disrespect.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by Elbownian

I'd be curious to know how many people in the city are actually living completely car-free. Not just "I only use it on the weekends", but flat out no-car households, by choice. I actually have yet to meet another person that's done this voluntarily, which leads me to believe that even among urbanists, it's very hard to let go of the keys for good here. Understandable, as there are only a handful of communities in which it's a truly viable option. With the exception of small pockets immediately adjacent to LRT stations, I'd argue that only Kensington/Sunnyside, Beltline, and Mission/Cliff Bungalow (plus fringes of adjacent communities) really have adequate services and transit access to make car-free life truly functional.

One comment on lack of pathways/trails/greenspace in the inner city: my wife and I walked to the Inglewood Bird Sanctuary this past weekend. Could have followed the river paths the whole way, but we wanted to stop off at Crossroads and get some produce. A very pleasant trip, with everything from rivers to rail yards. Think I'll take a wander out again now, see if the bald eagle is back in the trees outside my building...

Been car-free for just over a month now, and enjoying it. I'm really glad we got rid of it, we have been more active, and more likely to shop near by. Not to mention the money saved (~160/month) that we can use for other activities. Really if I didn't live in the Beltline I wouldn't have even considered it, but its been one of the best lifestyle decisions I've made. That said there are going to be times when I'll wish I had a vehicle (summer MTB trips, going out of town, etc.) but those times (6-10 a year) don't out weigh the savings and improved lifestyle that we now have.

[Policy Wonk]

Noted. But do let me know when thousands of abandoned cars start littering the streets of Western European cities.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by patm

This city will never be built as "car optional" in the near future because:

a) The vast majority of people can afford a car and prefer it to mass transit
b) The climate doesn't lend itself to walking
c) Not enough population with a desire to support the necessary transit.

There is maybe 5 days a year, where Calgary's climate induces anymore difficulty to walking that getting into a cold car. I've walked to work for the last 5 years and at no time has the weather caused me to stay home, in that same time there have been multiple snow storms that have cause people that drove to stay home or delay their arrival significantly.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

Noted. But do let me know when thousands of abandoned cars start littering the streets of Western European cities.

I think your missing a huge factor in many Gen Y - Z ers not buying cars is having massive debt loads from post secondary education. At the same time it's about priorities many in gen y (including myself) place a higher value on activities than a vehicle.

Additionally the advent services such as Car2Go have negated the need for a car around the city, while removing the need to deal with maintenance and insurance on a car. My savings from not having a private car will likely be nearly negated many months with our use of Car2Go, but I never have to worry about filling it up, when the next oil change is due, or how I'm going to afford the new set of summer tires that my car needed. That alone makes it worth it for me.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by fusili

Quick answer? I would say 5000 people per square km.

For reference, Barcelona is 16K/km2, Paris is ~20K/km2 (Parisian suburbs are actually really dense, and perhaps denser than the core) and Calgary is around 1.2K/km2 on average.

I don't think density has much to do with the form retail takes. It is really much more a matter of what happens to be the style at the time. Pre-war communities, like those around Marda Loop, would be built with something like a main street even with densities in the 2K/km2 range. Then we started to segregate uses and retail was clustered in malls, irrespective of the surrounding communities' densities.