Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Mayor
At an average of let's say 1.25 residents per unit, that alone would put SLC's population over 192,000 (2011 estimate was 189,899). I can easily see SLC breaking the 200,000 barrier in the 2020 census.
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I wouldn't bet on Salt Lake passing 200,000 by 2020 ... though, I also wouldn't bet against it, either.
For that to happen, we'd have to see the same type of economic growth that dominated the 90s - when Salt Lake's population grew by a shade over 21,000. Even this past decade, Salt Lake's population only saw an increase of 4,697 and while the current 2011 estimate suggests a surge in growth, I'm always wary of those estimates because they tend to fluctuate. But like I said, a lot will depend on the future economy. If the U.S. surges to strong growth, maybe not quite at the level of the '90s, but something far more expansive than what we've experienced the past decade, Salt Lake could make the push. But if growth continues to be slow, even if Utah's unemployment improves, Salt Lake probably won't pass 200,000.
A lot does depend on a healthy economy nationally. A big reason so many cities struggled, Salt Lake included, with losing population in the 70s and 80s is because the economic troubles of those days made it more economically viable to live in the suburbs. It's not a coincidence Salt Lake's biggest suburbs were really established in the 70s and 80s as a counter to the inner-cities. I'm thinking West Valley, Taylorsville, Kearns, and Sandy - suburbs that saw explosive growth between 1970 and 1990 (though, in many instances, it did continue into the 90s and 00s).
One major problem Salt Lake, and a great deal of other major cities faced coming out of the 90s, has is that city living was returning and more suburban types were embracing the movement. But then the economy fell into recession in 2001 and the recovery out of that recession was stunted and eventually completely undone by the economic recession (depression) of 2007 and '08 and while we're now starting to climb out of it, after all these years, it caused a lost decade and forced many of those same city dwellers to move back out to the suburbs where it's cheaper. Just look at SLC to get a full sense of what I mean. In the 90s, the city's population grew 13.6% and in the 00s, only 2.6%. It's not a coincidence the growth petered out in the 00s, even though the city was really starting to embrace downtown residential living. The economic downturn killed momentum. Hopefully with the economy improving, we can gain some of it back.
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