Millennium Line - Broadway Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by jhausner

Anyone with half a brain knows SkyTrain down Broadway to UBC is required. Don't need a KPMG study to tell us that.

A great place to start would be linking the M Line to Cambie and the Canada Line. Would be sort of a catalytic enzyme, in effect.

[Northski]

Originally Posted by TransitJack

KPMG report on Broadway corridor.

http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/KPMG-UBC-Broadway-Corridor-2013-02-26.pdf

http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/KPMG-UBC-Broadway-Corridor-2013-02-26.pdf

I support skytrain but the report made a pretty poor case for skytrain. Translinks reports are much better. One of the reports arguments is that skytrain will produce more affordable housing and commercial office space along Broadway. Housing and commercial office space will get more expensive with skystrain without a significant effort to streamline development approval.

But the real question is how are we going to find the money for it. e.g. what tax increase or spending cut will allow us to build it on the provincial, metro, or local level. A developer levi of 3000$/unit or job would generate 600 million over 30 years supposing 200,000 new jobs or condos were built.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by WBC

Not against UBC extension at all, but for the right price (I am guessing $500/per hour) KPMG would write you a report that states anything you want... And if you want that too include stating the obvious they would do that too....

Yeah. I agree with the conclusions of report, but consulting firms like KPMG are basically paid to come up with an argument that supports the goals of their clients. So any real value in this report has to stem from the facts it presents, not from the fact that it comes from KPMG. And you can expect opponents to use similar tactics to support their point of view.

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by allan_kuan

I just wonder what Surrey's reaction will be to this. It's a nice case for sure, but in the context of regional politics... I don't think it'll totally win over the other cities that feel underserved...

Surrey council has been on the record already multiple times saying they believe the Broadway line needs to be done along with the Surrey extension for the greater good of the region.

Vancouver council is on the record saying they think Broadway should happen first and Surrey shouldn't happen until Broadway is dealt with.

Comments from the mayor and council of Vancouver like that is what actually pisses people off in Surrey and South of Fraser. Same way Richmond voted for all transit regionally and complained about Burnaby constantly voting against until they got Canada Line then since then Richmond now votes against anything anywhere else.

I actually think council in Surrey is very regionally sensitive and looks outside its borders. We have needs in the city that are immediate but there are also needs elsewhere that are also immediate and truly believe we should be able to do more than 1 thing at a time in a city of 2.5+ million.

[dreambrother808]

Perhaps Vancouver city council realizes that we can't afford to build both at once and therefore one has to be made a priority.

[Gordon]

The stakeholders need to work as a team(including Victoria). sometimes in politics difficult, politically unpopular decisions are required it's time Victoria allowed the tools translink requires to fund it's self.

If Surrey is further ahead planning than Vancouver (Broadway) is maybe proceed with Surrey first .

Translink needs toi find a way to relieve the pressure on the #99

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by Gordon

Translink needs toi find a way to relieve the pressure on the #99

The only way to do that is a rapid transit line.

Perhaps if TransLink promised Surrey all the 99B buses for their own Newton-Surrey Central-Guildford B-Line and money for a full LRT study it would appease them enough to allow Vancouver to get its line first.

[SFUVancouver]

"A subway would enhance the connections among regional town centres to the UBC-Broadway Corridor, which is the second largest business centre in the province after Downtown Vancouver, with more jobs than the next eight largest Metro Vancouver town centres combined."

ZING!

[Alon]

How did the province find money to do the Canada and Evergreen lines? Between them it took 12 years and $3.5 billion, i.e. more than Broadway is budgeted at.

[xd_1771]

^ And all of that has been split between different levels of government, and (in the case of Canada Line) private investors. By contrast, Toronto, ON is getting $8 billion of provincial capital funding for rapid transit expansion.

[Zassk]

For Evergreen Line, the Federal contribution was stimulus funding, i.e. that well has dried up. I would not necessarily expect such levels of funding from the Feds on future lines.

For this Broadway Line, I would fully expect UBC to pony up several hundred million from its endowment toward the line, and would not be surprised to see the Musqueam pony up $50-100 million in exchange for service to their land near Acadia. These contributions will be the rationale used to justify building the line west of Arbutus, with the senior governments covering the difference.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Zassk

For this Broadway Line, I would fully expect UBC to pony up several hundred million from its endowment toward the line, and would not be surprised to see the Musqueam pony up $50-100 million in exchange for service to their land near Acadia. These contributions will be the rationale used to justify building the line west of Arbutus, with the senior governments covering the difference.

That makes sense and it's something I'd love to see - having the people who benefit pay, much as YVR did for it's segment. It's pretty hard for a taxpayer or a politician to refuse a deal like that. In fact if that could be arranged it could take some of the sting out of Surrey being passed over yet again.

[jlousa]

I fully expect UBC to contribute some funds towards the line, not sure if it'll be hundreds of millions though but I still think it'll be a respectful amount. If the Musqueams do contribute I'd put that number much lower though, maybe enough to pay for a station if that.
The report was a good read, didn't state anything that those following closely didn't already know, but the report seems more about politics then anything. Seems like it's meeting the goal set out by those that commissioned it.

[mooks28]

Originally Posted by allan_kuan

I just wonder what Surrey's reaction will be to this. It's a nice case for sure, but in the context of regional politics... I don't think it'll totally win over the other cities that feel underserved...

Build the Surrey one first. If it's not built first, good luck ever getting regional cash for a Vancouver project ever again. The politics demands it.

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Yeah. I agree with the conclusions of report, but consulting firms like KPMG are basically paid to come up with an argument that supports the goals of their clients. So any real value in this report has to stem from the facts it presents, not from the fact that it comes from KPMG. And you can expect opponents to use similar tactics to support their point of view.

So, when will Surrey ask KPMG for a report that says their LRT is the preferred next rapid transit line for the region?

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by Zassk

For Evergreen Line, the Federal contribution was stimulus funding, i.e. that well has dried up. I would not necessarily expect such levels of funding from the Feds on future lines.

For this Broadway Line, I would fully expect UBC to pony up several hundred million from its endowment toward the line, and would not be surprised to see the Musqueam pony up $50-100 million in exchange for service to their land near Acadia. These contributions will be the rationale used to justify building the line west of Arbutus, with the senior governments covering the difference.

If the economy tanks again and Harper mandates another stimulus plan, don't be surprised if the feds discover some $$ for Translink before the next fed election (around Oct 2015, unless called earlier).

How many Fed ridings would the UBC line run through?

[Alon]

3: Vancouver East, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Quadra. Van East voted NDP by a huge margin, Van Centre voted Liberal by a small one, Van Quadra voted Liberal by a large one.

[officedweller]

The odd thing about the KPMG Study is that, in summary, all it says is "hey a subway will will yield economic benefits - especially in the technology sector". That's not rocket science.

The study does not establish the typical "business case" or "multiple account evaluation" for the line - nor does it compare such analysis with proposed Surrey expansions to determine "who goes first".

One factor that seems to be underplayed is the role of U-Pass on ridership demand in the UBC corridor - the discounted U-Passes are bound to impact the analysis from a cost-effectiveness / financial viability / return on investment perspective.
While not all UBC-bound passengers are students on U-Pass, a significant proportion are - and shelling out billions on lower revenue generating service (despite high ridership) may not be the preferred alternative.

i.e. you can argue that the 99 B-Line has such high ridership that its replacement should jump to the head of the line - but is that ridership artificially created? If you offered $35 per month all zone transit passes to residents of Surrey - would Surrey ridership spike to a level where it would rank Surrey demand ahead of UBC demand?

It may well be that a return on investment analysis may favour phasing the line to Arbutus (serving the higher value workforce commuters of central Broadway over the discounted UBC student fares), then going to Surrey, then coming back to UBC.

i.e. Will a complete line to UBC pay for itself or create a financial deficit (because of the discounted student fares) - a deficit that could impede subsequent future expansion in Surrey (if Surrey is ranked after the UBC line)?

Has anyone done that analysis?

[Zassk]

Originally Posted by mooks28

Build the Surrey one first. If it's not built first, good luck ever getting regional cash for a Vancouver project ever again. The politics demands it.

Watts would like us to think so, but I wonder. Translink would have a better balance sheet if Surrey left. Does the region need Surrey, or does Surrey need the region?

Anyway, $500-600M should be enough to build a token 4-km LRT line to Guildford and quieten Surrey while the big-boy project on Broadway gets built.

[usog]

As long as they call it a UBC line it'll never get done. A Broadway Line to Cambie though, perhaps there's a chance it could happen...