YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[twoNeurons]

Whether those numbers are accurate or not, it's annoying that they weren't sorted, so I've done that here:

From Toronto
YYZ-LHR 392000 pax
YYZ-HKG 293000 pax
YYZ-CDG 198000 pax
YYZ-PEK 182000 pax
YYZ-FCO 181000 pax
YYZ-DEL 176000 pax
YYZ-MNL 143000 pax
YYZ-PVG 121000 pax
YYZ-ICN 100000 pax

From Vancouver
YVR-HKG 283000 pax
YVR-LHR 232000 pax
YVR-PVG 155000 pax
YVR-DEL 142000 pax
YVR-PEK 135000 pax
YVR-ICN 130000 pax
YVR-NRT 110000 pax
YVR-MNL 88000 pax

From Montreal
YUL-CDG 503000 pax
YUL-LHR 129000 pax
YUL-CMN 94000 pax

[trofirhen]

I'm surprised YVR - FRA isn't in there somewhere. Surely it must be busier than YVR-MNL (?)

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

I'm surprised YVR - FRA isn't in there somewhere. Surely it must be busier than YVR-MNL (?)

Exactly. If they're not accurate, why bother posting them?
We all might as well post whatever then.

[Johnny Aussie]

Looked through the scheds and this is what I come up with.

Comparison to 2012 summer.

DOMESTIC
YYC - increase of 1 weekly to 82 per week
YXJ - Encore new 7 weekly
YYZ - increase of 13 weekly to 74 per week
YYJ - Encore new 7 weekly

TRANSBORDER
No change

INTERNATIONAL
No change

Overall summary
55 daily flights (including Encore) up from 51 last summer.
Mainline up 14 per week and Encore a total of new 14 per week.

[Johnny Aussie]

Looks like Enerjet is taking over the Transat summer charters to CUN and PVR from Western Canada. Operated by 73W.

1 weekly each YEG-YYC-PVR and YEG-YYC-CUN
1 weekly each YVR-CUN and YVR-PVR

Last summer these charters were flown by Canjet on a 738.

[trofirhen]

People here are saturated with my whinings about YVR-Paris, and so forth, and that's totally understandable.

However, as posted by "isaidso" was that a potential threat to YVR was SEATTLE becoming the "de facto hub for the Pacific NW" and Vancouver and Portland becoming feeder cities into it.

This is already much the case with Portland, but is YVR at risk of becoming a feeder city for SEA-TAC?

I think, really, that that is at the bottom of my whinging, more than just the fact that I'd like such-and-such a destination.

Feedback appreciated on this, as it could turn out to be a syndrome that sticks - much to the detriment of YVR. Or not?? Opinions, please? Thank you

[Hourglass]

@trofirhen: For a city of its size, Seattle is probably underserved in terms of international flights. Despite its growth in recent years, it still lags far behind YVR wrt Asian flights, and especially flights from China.

Eventually SEA may catch-up to Vancouver in number of int'l flights, but I don't see it becoming the hub for the entire PNW. YVR is Canada's gateway to Asia and will remain so in the future.

In some ways, I actually see Calgary in the future as a bigger threat to siphon Canada-Asia traffic away from YVR. They have a huge expansion underway -- one that seems way out of proportion for the traffic they handle currently or for growth forecasts. YVR can't afford to get complacent.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

@trofirhen: For a city of its size, Seattle is probably underserved in terms of international flights. Despite its growth in recent years, it still lags far behind YVR wrt Asian flights, and especially flights from China.

Eventually SEA may catch-up to Vancouver in number of int'l flights, but I don't see it becoming the hub for the entire PNW. YVR is Canada's gateway to Asia and will remain so in the future.

In some ways, I actually see Calgary in the future as a bigger threat to siphon Canada-Asia traffic away from YVR. They have a huge expansion underway -- one that seems way out of proportion for the traffic they handle currently or for growth forecasts. YVR can't afford to get complacent.

Thanks for you feedback. Three questions, please.

Is Asia really our only strong point or are there other destiantions to be considered, too?

Also, Calgary, if it siphons off traffic (and YYC Airport is getting big, yes) do you mean exclusively Asian traffic? What per cent of the YVR market would they take?

And would YYC get any major destinations YVR would not have? (unlikely, but always possible)

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thanks for you feedback. Three questions, please.

Is Asia really our only strong point or are there other destiantions to be considered, too?

Also, Calgary, if it siphons off traffic (and YYC Airport is getting big, yes) do you mean exclusively Asian traffic? What per cent of the YVR market would they take?

And would YYC get any major destinations YVR would not have? (unlikely, but always possible)

YYC has a looooooooooooooooooooooong way to go before it catches up to YVR for international traffic. It is almost entirely domestic pax that is fueling YYC's growth. I don't see YYC siphoning off too much APAC traffic from YVR any time soon.

[Hourglass]

@ ACT7 - you're right, but never say never. YVR may have the Asian connections now, but Calgary has the critical mass of head office employment to drive additional flights in the future. YYC is forecasting 27 million passengers by 2025, which is HIGHER than YVR's low-end projections of 26.9m passengers in their 2027 master plan (and not so far from their medium-growth forecasts of 33.4m passengers). YYC's growth isn't going to come only from domestic or transborder traffic. Of course, long-term forecasts are guesses at best, but these numbers show their ambition.

@ trofirhen - you might find this article interesting: http://atwonline.com/airports-routes/article/asia-ambition-0202. I think this might answer some of your questions.

[trofirhen]

I found this part of the article very interesting.........
________________________
“And Vancouver right now is positioned as being the primary connecting hub across the Pacific and then through Canada and North America and perhaps eventually South America. So you’re not going to have Vancouver and Calgary built up as hubs connecting Asia to North America. Only one of them is going to be playing a role as a major connecting hub and that’s going to be Vancouver. The best that Calgary is going to get is more connections across the Pacific..."
____________________________
I'm referring to the part about South America.

Can anyone envision TAM, Avianca or any other airline connecting to South American destinations, be it Caracas or Sao Paolo, flying into Vancouver?
Or any Asian airline stopping at YVR and continuing on to South America? This raises an interesting new angle on YVR's potential pivotal role for S America if the statement comes true.

[deasine]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

I found this part of the article very interesting.........
________________________
“And Vancouver right now is positioned as being the primary connecting hub across the Pacific and then through Canada and North America and perhaps eventually South America. So you’re not going to have Vancouver and Calgary built up as hubs connecting Asia to North America. Only one of them is going to be playing a role as a major connecting hub and that’s going to be Vancouver. The best that Calgary is going to get is more connections across the Pacific..."
____________________________
I'm referring to the part about South America.

Can anyone envision TAM, Avianca or any other airline connecting to South American destinations, be it Caracas or Sao Paolo, flying into Vancouver?
Or any Asian airline stopping at YVR and continuing on to South America? This raises an interesting new angle on YVR's potential pivotal role for S America if the statement comes true.

If an airline believes there is enough either fifth-freedom traffic to Asia or O&D traffic in Vancouver, it may work. While there might be less demand, a connection through YVR has its advantages over connections through US Airports as the Visa & Health regulations in Canada are a bit more accommodating than the US.

[SpongeG]

since living in alberta i am surprised at the amount of koreans that are living here in northern alberta, i've come across a number of gas stations that are owned or operated by korean immigrants, they could really use some direct korean flights from alberta

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by deasine

If an airline believes there is enough either fifth-freedom traffic to Asia or O&D traffic in Vancouver, it may work. While there might be less demand, a connection through YVR has its advantages over connections through US Airports as the Visa & Health regulations in Canada are a bit more accommodating than the US.

Wouldn't it be great if it did work out that way? We'd be a connector hub for South America, with flights to Bogota, Caracas, Sao Paolo (that's the biggie) ....

I don't want Vancouver to fall into number 2 spot behind Seattle as the defacto Pacific Northwest hub !!

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Hourglass

YYC is forecasting 27 million passengers by 2025, which is HIGHER than YVR's low-end projections of 26.9m passengers in their 2027 master plan (and not so far from their medium-growth forecasts of 33.4m passengers).

I'm a born and raised Calgarian, but even I have to question that 27 million number. Seems awfully high and really only a short time away. But nothing like shooting for the moon!

Originally Posted by SpongeG

since living in alberta i am surprised at the amount of koreans that are living here in northern alberta, i've come across a number of gas stations that are owned or operated by korean immigrants, they could really use some direct korean flights from alberta

I still think Korean is one of the best bets for a new pacific carrier into YYC. A few years ago they did run some summer charter flights from ICN to us (ANA did the same before them), the last year that they did them they did open up the bookings to anyone. Perhaps it was a way to test the market for YYC-ICN service?

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

I found this part of the article very interesting.........
________________________
“And Vancouver right now is positioned as being the primary connecting hub across the Pacific and then through Canada and North America and perhaps eventually South America. So you’re not going to have Vancouver and Calgary built up as hubs connecting Asia to North America. Only one of them is going to be playing a role as a major connecting hub and that’s going to be Vancouver. The best that Calgary is going to get is more connections across the Pacific..."
____________________________
I'm referring to the part about South America.

Can anyone envision TAM, Avianca or any other airline connecting to South American destinations, be it Caracas or Sao Paolo, flying into Vancouver?
Or any Asian airline stopping at YVR and continuing on to South America? This raises an interesting new angle on YVR's potential pivotal role for S America if the statement comes true.

I'm not so sure about South America to be honest. Feeder traffic from Asia may play a small role in whether or not those routes would be viable, but you have to remember that in the grand scheme of things, Vancouver's cachment is quite small. It's just as easy to fly from Asia to YYZ and catch a shorter connecting flight to GRU, SCL, EZE, etc which already has premium pax and cargo traffic in place. There isn't a single South American carrier flying into Canada right now and to be honest, I'm not sure that YVR would be the 'hub' of choice given it's distance and the aforementioned cachment. AC would have to more or less switch its focus away from YYZ in order to make a YVR to South America work and that's not too likely to happen.

As for YYC, 27 million by 2025 means about 5% growth per year which overall could be possible, but I don't see that coming from international traffic. I've said this before here and in other threads - YYC would need to be a TRUE hub (not by some arbitrary Air Canada definition) in order to get the kind of international growth they aspire to. Even if three Asian carriers and three more European carriers add service in the next 5-7 years, international pax traffic is not going to skyrocket.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by ACT7

I'm not so sure about South America to be honest. Feeder traffic from Asia may play a small role in whether or not those routes would be viable, but you have to remember that in the grand scheme of things, Vancouver's cachment is quite small. .....
AC would have to more or less switch its focus away from YYZ in order to make a YVR to South America work and that's not too likely to happen..

Just wishful thinking on my part, I guess. I hate seeing Vancouver in the potential shadow of SEA-TAC, let alone YYZ. I had hoped YVR would somehow become a more important, strategic hub, not only for East Asia, but elsewhere also.

I realize now that is not going to happen.

[SpongeG]

Calgary has gotten increased flights to tokyo...

WestJet's announcement of new services to Chicago and Manzanillo opened up new destinations for Albertans and Air Canada has increased its number of flights to Tokyo.
KLM also announced an increase in frequency on their Amsterdam route.

Read more: http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/yyc-makes-million-per-month-milestone-1.1149354#ixzz2KuWeYXQU

[Gordon]

West Jet started seasonal service to Chicago from Calgary and Vancouver Last may.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Gordon

West Jet started seasonal service to Chicago from Calgary and Vancouver Last may.

I recall that, and at the time thought it was year-round. Now (from YVR anyway) it seems to be summer only, or am I wrong?