Is Vancouver's Housing Bubble Finally Popping?

[whatnext]

Remind me to PM you when I do renos!

[whatnext]

GlobalTV piece on the death of the pre-sale market. Didn't hear any breathless stories of mc2 selling out did we?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Nz95X_9ZN-c

[vanman]

^ It's 80% sold already according to an ad in Saturday's Sun.

[jlousa]

Sounds about right it was ~350units out of ~445 sold after opening day, and I'm sure they've sold more since, so they'll be in around 90% by now. There are less projects going to hit the market in the next 12-18months which will keep the presale supply side in check.

[easy as pie]

i love the mild astonishment at the increasing popularity of pre-sales in nyc
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/re...ith-condo.html

in vancouver, toronto, montreal, the buildings can't even get construction loans until sales hit 50-60% of available units. such a different market, speaks volumes about how hot it is up there. then again, in the most developed jurisdictions in the usa, financing must be 100% secure before the project is legally allowed to go to market. interesting that the anti-fraud regulations in the cities here in america actually work to deflate overly intense speculation.

[whatnext]

This factoid was on vancouverpricedrop, and shows how big the speculative bubble was/is:

Quarter million dollar loss and counting on this failed flip but “It’s a good investment opportunity!”. Too bad, so sad! Over 20% of listed homes in Shaughnessy right now were purchased just one year ago – this is not including new builds. (bold mine)

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress....ember-19-2012/

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by easy as pie

i love the mild astonishment at the increasing popularity of pre-sales in nyc
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/18/re...ith-condo.html

That is one nice article!

tasty tidbit:

THE VIEW Know your air rights. Apartments on what are called “lot lines” could lose their view if the neighboring lot was developed. To prevent that from happening and preserve views for their buildings, some developers buy the air rights from surrounding buildings.

That’s what Alchemy Properties did at 35 West 15th Street, where it is building a condo atop Xavier High School, which has adjoining property west and north. Most nearby buildings are no higher than six stories at the moment, but buying the surrounding air rights from Xavier will help maintain uninterrupted views from the condo, said Mr. Horn of Alchemy Properties.

Another informative tactic would be to pay a visit to the building next door. “I know it seems very forward,” said John Wollberg, an executive director of sales for Halstead Property, “but try and ask someone in a building that you think may have a comparable view if you can come over.” Sure, you may be turned down, he added, but to increase your chances, he said he would “handwrite a note to personally ask if there is any way I can impose upon them to come and look at the view for two seconds.”

[Denscity]

According to CTV Newschannel the three most expensive places to live are Vancouver, Richmond, and Burnaby. Thought Toronto would be up there somewhere.

[trofirhen]

sour grapes perhaps, but I wanna see it not go "pop" but go "BANG!" back to more realistic levels. (apologies to all those of who who invested too much $$$)

[jlousa]

Yup nothing like someone unvested that lives on the other side on the planet hoping to see hundreds of thousands of people loss a fortune.
That's bound to make life better for sure, I remember how great things were here in the early 80s.

[WarrenC12]

One of many reasons why he's on my ignore list.

I think a slow steady decline would be the best, sadly.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by jlousa

Yup nothing like someone unvested that lives on the other side on the planet hoping to see hundreds of thousands of people loss a fortune.
That's bound to make life better for sure, I remember how great things were here in the early 80s.

Sure don't. But my parents definitely did quite well from it when considering the long term.

[whatnext]

Final 2012 tally in and home sales slid 23% from 2011's total:

http://www.biv.com/article/20130104/...l-estate-board

[logan5]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Final 2012 tally in and home sales slid 23% from 2011's total:

http://www.biv.com/article/20130104/...l-estate-board

its high end properties that are suffering. is it total units that are down or total dollar value?

[Architype]

My condo property assessment has gone down about 17% since last year.

I'm wondering if that is typical, or even relevant.

[Pinion]

My assessment went down $7,000. Whoopty doo.

Can't sell it anyway since the whole building is falling apart.

[Spork]

In case you are curious about the housing types experiencing slides.



Source: http://www.chpc.biz/scorecard.html

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Spork

In case you are curious about the housing types experiencing slides.

Looks like basically every type in Vancouver, with townhouses being the brightest of the dark spots.

Vancouverpricedrop has a scary comparison out today:
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress....te-price-drop/

[someone123]

As others have alluded to, I thought the main factor driving up prices in Vancouver is limited land for houses and limited higher-density zoned sites for condos. I expect the price of those to fall more than construction costs, which are in a lot of cases not even determined locally. The health of Vancouver's real estate market has little impact on the price of fuel or steel for example, and you need those to build condos.

Fundamentally I think the high housing costs are bad for the city overall. The city's economy does benefit from absorbing money from new buyers, but it loses out in terms of attracting companies and talent in other industries. Tech companies in Vancouver are at a big disadvantage for example because people fear that if they move to Vancouver they will not be able to afford property or will have to live in a less desirable neighbourhood. It's understandable that Vancouver costs more than Calgary or Edmonton, but it's not reasonable to see Vancouver housing up in the same ballpark as the Bay Area, which is a bigger city that offers higher salaries and has a bunch of other advantages.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Architype

My condo property assessment has gone down about 17% since last year.

I'm wondering if that is typical, or even relevant.

Whoa... my downtown condo was off less than 1%.