Calgary Federal Politics

[Rusty van Reddick]

ANYway, the Calgary Centre by-election is looking like a three-way race with Chris Turner's support more than doubling in the last two weeks (!!!!) and Joan Crockatt's dropping by 50% (!!!!!) which must be one of the most pathetic political meltdowns this province has ever seen. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/poli...lgary-centre-by-election/article5267073/

[DizzyEdge]

"As reported by the Globe & Mail, the November survey of 376 randomly selected residents in Calgary-Centre showed Ms. Crockatt with 32% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 23% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12%."

http://daveberta.ca/2012/11/calgary-centre-byelection-poll/

That's crazy, particularly that Crockatt has only 1/3 of the vote, but of course could still win.

[Wooster]

2 weeks to go - it's an eternity in political campaigns.

In 2010 2 weeks out from the 2010 Mayoral Race it was McIver 31%, Higgins 28%, Nenshi 16%. Nenshi won with 39.6%. Of course momentum is critical.

[DizzyEdge]

Well the Turner campaign is doing something right, as until tonight I didn't even know who else was running in that riding, but I've been hearing about Chris Turner for a couple of weeks.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

"As reported by the Globe & Mail, the November survey of 376 randomly selected residents in Calgary-Centre showed Ms. Crockatt with 32% to 30% for Mr. Locke and 23% for Mr. Turner. New Democrat Dan Meades was in fourth place with 12%."

http://daveberta.ca/2012/11/calgary-centre-byelection-poll/

That's crazy, particularly that Crockatt has only 1/3 of the vote, but of course could still win.

With only a one day sample, any poll should be treated as highly suspect. Add to that the difficulty of getting an accurate sample in a riding where the houses turn over far less than the condos/apartments, and correctly geocoding people. With a proven panel, I would trust online in riding by riding races more. Will be interesting to see what our friend at 1Centre produces.

Will also be interesting to see which way attacks pivot between the camps. I suspect the greens pledge to rapidly move to a post carbon economy (by not approving any new fossil fuel development) will show its head.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

With only a one day sample, any poll should be treated as highly suspect. Add to that the difficulty of getting an accurate sample in a riding where the houses turn over far less than the condos/apartments, and correctly geocoding people.

Agreed, my house got a call for Calgary Centre poll however we currently live in Citadel (moved three years ago).

Also IIRC Forum is a big user of mobile polling methods (e.g. cell phone, etc.) and they were not the best at predicting the last election.

Finally it will be interesting to see if liberal and NDP leadership will affect the polling numbers. Muclair is set to go on CBC Radio this morning, he could tank Dan Meades chances. It will also be interesting to see if a Mulcair gaff would scare Red Tories into holding their nose while voting for Croakatt. If there is a Mulcair or Rae gaff, its an opportunity for Chris Turner to pick up Red Tory support (again provided he can muzzle his own Dear Leader or get Ms May to support an "agree to disagree" position).

[suburbia]

There was a sound-clip on CBC radio this morning of Mayor Nenshi in Ottawa for the big municipal leaders meeting. He said something to the effect:

When was the last time the Federal Government made a special contribution for infrastructure in Calgary? You'd be scratching your head for a long time looking for an answer. That is a question we should be asking candidates in the next Calgary-Centre by-election.

You know, every time I hear Naheed speak on the big stage, I'm extremely proud of him as our mayor. Anyway, it is indeed a good question for the Calgary-Centre candidates, is it not?

Of course, you need to be able to FIND the candidates to be able to ask the questions:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/st...y-calgary-centre-environment-debate.html

Some candidates in the Calgary Centre byelection say the absence of the Conservative candidate is starting to be noticed.

Three of the top four candidates took part in a Young Environmental Professionals forum Wednesday night in downtown Calgary.

<snip>

Four candidates were invited, but Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt declined.

Crockatt has so far avoided public forums and turned down some requests for interviews.

[DizzyEdge]

She relented and agreed to do a debate tonight didn't she?

[Doug]

Originally Posted by suburbia

When was the last time the Federal Government made a special contribution for infrastructure in Calgary? You'd be scratching your head for a long time looking for an answer. That is a question we should be asking candidates in the next Calgary-Centre by-election.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/st...y-calgary-centre-environment-debate.html

The easy answer is return on investment. Calgary votes are more expensive than anywhere else in the country. Federal spending announcements do not sway the electorate as much as they would elsewhere and the politicians know it. This should be a source of pride.

[MalcolmTucker]

When was the last time the Federal Government made a special contribution for infrastructure in Calgary?

Well, does the Federal Government ever make special contributions anywhere, besides things like facilities directly for the Olympics? (and I am not talking about the Canada Line or Sea to Sky, which were funded out of normal programs)

The closest the government comes to a directed program is the Asia Pacific Gateway, which did fund part of the 52nd St grade separation iirc.

Otherwise, things are allocated based on formulas. Arguing for higher overall contributions is good. Arguing that Calgary deserves something special, I am not sure what he means.

[5seconds]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Well, does the Federal Government ever make special contributions anywhere, besides things like facilities directly for the Olympics? (and I am not talking about the Canada Line or Sea to Sky, which were funded out of normal programs)

The closest the government comes to a directed program is the Asia Pacific Gateway, which did fund part of the 52nd St grade separation iirc.

Otherwise, things are allocated based on formulas. Arguing for higher overall contributions is good. Arguing that Calgary deserves something special, I am not sure what he means.

In that interview with CBC this morning, he stated that of the $2 billion for Ottawa's new LRT construction, $600 million was federal dollars. Not sure if that was directly for the project, or part of general funding etc.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Well, does the Federal Government ever make special contributions anywhere, besides things like facilities directly for the Olympics? (and I am not talking about the Canada Line or Sea to Sky, which were funded out of normal programs)

The closest the government comes to a directed program is the Asia Pacific Gateway, which did fund part of the 52nd St grade separation iirc.

Otherwise, things are allocated based on formulas. Arguing for higher overall contributions is good. Arguing that Calgary deserves something special, I am not sure what he means.

Don't know, but knowing the mayor somewhat, I suspect he has an answer for that. I doubt anyone of any political significance at the Federal level will call him on that.

EDIT:

You knew it was coming!
http://www.fcmchallenge.ca/

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by 5seconds

In that interview with CBC this morning, he stated that of the $2 billion for Ottawa's new LRT construction, $600 million was federal dollars. Not sure if that was directly for the project, or part of general funding etc.

It isn't special funding.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

She relented and agreed to do a debate tonight didn't she?

Where is this debate?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Full Mountain

Where is this debate?

Folks. It was supposed at the Cliff Bungalow-Mission community hall, but Joan just pulled out AGAIN!

http://www.ffwdweekly.com/calgary-blogs/politics/2012/11/14/joan-crockatt-faces-debate-fears-1190/

*Update*

Joan Crockatt has pulled out of tonight's debate. Seems that trying to get a Conservative candidate to discuss the issues was too good to be true.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Folks. It was supposed at the Cliff Bungalow-Mission community hall, but Joan just pulled out AGAIN!

http://www.ffwdweekly.com/calgary-blogs/politics/2012/11/14/joan-crockatt-faces-debate-fears-1190/

FACE PALM! I couldn't believe she hasn't been to a debate to date. And she has been not returned questionnaires submitted by organizations about issues they would like to see addressed. I think she was hanging out with Rob Anders last night. Calgary does not need another boiler plate conservative (like Rob Anders) in a warm and safe seat.

[artvandelay]

According to her fb page she is attending one on Saturday:

Joan Crockatt
about an hour ago
Excited to attend the candidates' debate hosted by the East Village Neighbourhood Association at the Golden Age Club (610 - 8 Avenue SE) on Saturday November 17th at 1:00 p.m. - looking forward to meeting with voters from Calgary Centre and answering your questions!

[fusili]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

According to her fb page she is attending one on Saturday:

Joan Crockatt
about an hour ago
Excited to attend the candidates' debate hosted by the East Village Neighbourhood Association at the Golden Age Club (610 - 8 Avenue SE) on Saturday November 17th at 1:00 p.m. - looking forward to meeting with voters from Calgary Centre and answering your questions!

Perhaps she thinks that this will be a subdued venue or something. Based on the media exposure to her absence, I am going to doubt this.

[Full Mountain]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

According to her fb page she is attending one on Saturday:

Joan Crockatt
about an hour ago
Excited to attend the candidates' debate hosted by the East Village Neighbourhood Association at the Golden Age Club (610 - 8 Avenue SE) on Saturday November 17th at 1:00 p.m. - looking forward to meeting with voters from Calgary Centre and answering your questions!

Originally Posted by fusili

Perhaps she thinks that this will be a subdued venue or something. Based on the media exposure to her absence, I am going to doubt this.

She's going to the older crowd is she?

I think some vocal people should show up and make it hell for her, I'm tempted to do it myself, who wants to join?

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Full Mountain

She's going to the older crowd is she?

I think some vocal people should show up and make it hell for her, I'm tempted to do it myself, who wants to join?

I'm tempted to go as well. She has a boilerplate conservative website and her biggest question on her facebook page is, "Who doesn't love cake on a weekend?" No real vision for how she could facilitate in improving quality of life in Calgary on a neighbourhood basis. I'm not expecting much more from her than a Rob Anders sort of participation in the democratic process. Nenshi also tweeted today that Crockatt was also the only candidate not to have yet registered for the debate at the Dutton Theatre. Boo!