ATLANTA | Development Thread V

[tdawg]

I am investigating a transfer. I love this city for what it could be, but it's never going to get there fast enough for me.

I had the very same thoughts in 1999. I did, in fact, leave for New York. I really hope metro Atlanta gets its act together and realizes that without superior public transportation, the area will choke to death on its own (former) success.

[Snakebit]

http://www.ajc.com/news/deal-rejects-possibility-of-1488952.html

Deal rejects possibility of reviving TSplost:

Gov. Nathan Deal said Wednesday that he had no interest in revisiting a regional transportation tax after a plan for a 1-cent sales tax was resoundingly rejected by voters.

Deal also poured cold water on the idea of levying a new gas or hotel tax to make up the revenue.

Further down the article:

Deal said he was not inclined to make increased funding of MARTA a priority.

"MARTA needs to be fixed, and before the taxpayers are going to spend any more money on MARTA, I think they've also sent a message that they're not going to put more money into something they perceive is not functioning appropriately with the revenue that's available," he said. "I'm sure that's a discussion that will occur during the next legislative session. "

[Tuckerman]

Agreed, the options now are few for any transit oriented plan for the metro area. I can't see any leadership emerging with the ability to take up this cause, especially any leadership with political clout. We need to remember that the core urban area of the Atlanta region is probably < 10% of the population and outer rings get more and more conservative and car oriented as we move away from the more dense areas. It isn't just the anti-tax mentality but also the anti-urban view. I have no doubt that some organizations and companies will continue to invest in the metro area, but not in the center. Tall office buildings will simply be built on the far outskirts with access to highways.

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

Agreed, the options now are few for any transit oriented plan for the metro area. I can't see any leadership emerging with the ability to take up this cause, especially any leadership with political clout. We need to remember that the core urban area of the Atlanta region is probably < 10% of the population and outer rings get more and more conservative and car oriented as we move away from the more dense areas. It isn't just the anti-tax mentality but also the anti-urban view. I have no doubt that some organizations and companies will continue to invest in the metro area, but not in the center. Tall office buildings will simply be built on the far outskirts with access to highways.

I'm not so sure about that.

Look at trends in families and housing: the nuclear family is decreasing as a percentage of households, while singles and couples are increasing. Hence a building boom of intown apartments, while suburbanites continue to struggle with selling their homes.

Look at the YTD office absorption stats:

Page 3 has the data

Atlanta's three intown office markets (Downtown, Midtown, Buckhead) have had more total absorption in the last two quarters than all of the suburban markets combined, despite the fact that the suburban markets represent twice as much total office space.

And the only reason the suburban markets are positive in absorption is because of Central Perimeter--without that one district, they'd be in the red while intown is growing strong. And Central Perimeter is very much an inner suburb, with transit connectivity and all.

I really don't see good times ahead for Atlanta's suburbs. Or possibly suburbs in general. The mismatch between what suburbs offer and the demographic shifts of our day is only going to bite them harder and harder. It's a shame, really--I wish we could get transit and walkability out there, but it seems unlikely to happen at this point in time.

[Snakebit]

Press Release from Governor Deal:

Highlights-

“On public transportation, yesterday’s vote slams the door on further expansion of our rail network any time soon. Neither I nor the Legislature has much of an appetite for new investments until there are significant reforms in how MARTA operates."


“As governor, I aim to make Georgia the No. 1 place in the nation to do business and improving our transportation infrastructure is a major part of that effort. Yesterday’s vote wasn’t an end of the discussion; it’s a transition point. We have much to do, and I’ll work with state and local officials to direct our limited resources to the most important projects.”

http://gov.georgia.gov/00/press/detail/0,2668,165937316_187431258_187453630,00.html

[oldpainless]

Originally Posted by BlindFatSnake

What a bunch of backwoods idoits who loaded the TSPLOST with anti-Atlanta laws that have come back to bite them in the a$$.

Wasn't Kasim Reed a major outspoken backer of TSPLOST? Also, City of Atlanta voters came out and did a great job majority voting "Yes".

[oldpainless]

Originally Posted by tdawg

I had the very same thoughts in 1999. I did, in fact, leave for New York. I really hope metro Atlanta gets its act together and realizes that without superior public transportation, the area will choke to death on its own (former) success.

You need high density for public transit to work. Unless we change our zoning laws, I don't know if mass transit will ever be popular in Metro Atlanta.

[Tuckerman]

Originally Posted by testarossa50

I'm not so sure about that.

Look at trends in families and housing: the nuclear family is decreasing as a percentage of households, while singles and couples are increasing. Hence a building boom of intown apartments, while suburbanites continue to struggle with selling their homes.

Look at the YTD office absorption stats:

I really don't see good times ahead for Atlanta's suburbs. Or possibly suburbs in general. The mismatch between what suburbs offer and the demographic shifts of our day is only going to bite them harder and harder. It's a shame, really--I wish we could get transit and walkability out there, but it seems unlikely to happen at this point in time.

Definitely the in-town market for apartments is doing pretty well. As I read the data, downtown office space is not doing so well, while midtown, Buckhead and Perimeter do pretty well (and I agree that Perimeter is well connected on rapid transit, in fact the Peachtree spine looks pretty good and may recover nicely). Nonetheless, outside of Buckhead I don't see any major office high rise coming soon.

The housing market appears to be at a watershed and the market, even in the suburbs, may improve.

I agree that the signs are not all negative, however I don't foresee any positive efforts to address the public transit issues in the ATL region in the near future because of the political context. The good news is that this "context' is not unique to the ATL region, so few other places will experience any better approaches.

[Omaharocks]

Originally Posted by oldpainless

You need high density for public transit to work. Unless we change our zoning laws, I don't know if mass transit will ever be popular in Metro Atlanta.

This is a commonly believed sentiment, and of course high density gives transit a higher propensity for success, but it has been proven time and time again that you can have successful transit in areas that have similar densities to what you see in much of Atlanta - see Salt Lake City and Denver for good examples of regions that have done a great job of investing in transit, to much success, even in corridors of relatively low density.

T-SPLOST was an interesting endeavour that I've followed closely - unfortunately I think mhays nailed the issue - there was too much for people to vote against, and there was too much compromise in a political climate where people don't appreciate compromise. It's a lesson to keep things simple, I guess.

[GThomas]

http://whatnowatlanta.com/2012/08/01/rendering-downtown-days-inn-to-become-an-aloft-hotel/

[shivtim]

^Slightly disappointing that they aren't building a new hotel (as was proposed years ago with the joint aloft/post building at Allen Plaza), but still great to see more investment in downtown. Hopefully they can incorporate some ground-level retail.

[Rail Claimore]

If the project list was 90% roads, it would have passed easily.

[atlantaguy]

God god, it's not the end of the world here by any means. Yes, we have a TOTALLY fucked up and dysfunctional State government - with a corrupt idiot at the helm.

BUT - don't forget that Seattle rejected the same type of plan in the 70's, and we got MARTA funding from the Feds as a result. We have ALWAYS been a place to figure out how to beat the odds. Going forward, I predict that the core - Atlanta, Fulton & DeKalb (and perhaps Gwinnett) will figure out a way to work this out. If the burbs are willing to stew in their own traffic, show me a major metro peer with heavy rail that is any different. There very simply aren't any. The sky is NOT falling.

[sevensixtwo]

Here is what should be on the table for transit reform in Georgia. I like having a list of projects despite my earlier comments. I rethought that position. The people should know exactly what they are going to pay for. I think $0.01 is too small. We can use transit reform to stimulate more jobs by putting more money into it. I think if people were excited about the initiative $0.05 or $0.03 would easily be accepted. The project list will be composed of "real" shovel ready jobs as opposed to the elusive "Obama" shovel ready jobs. However! ... When we are selecting which contractors get which jobs we need to make sure the voting process is as democratic as possible to ensure propriety.

Concerning the division of the project list between road work and progressive transit: I remember that if the transit climate in America ever does change, it will be easy to build trains on the wide highways coursing in and out of large cities. Not saying that I think this will happen right away, but I do see a benefit investing in wider roads. Normally we hear the argument that road-based transit investment is pointless, but I do not agree in all cases.

All the problems with MARTA need to be completely resolved in a new transit bill. If Gwinnett and Cobb don't want trains connecting them to "those people" then branch some east/west MARTA off of North Springs station. As pointed out above, rail density in Atlanta is appropriate for our population density. It is important to reward efficient, modern living with good transit reform legislation.

[sevensixtwo]

So T-Splost failed... Now 400/285 is the number one priority in the state just as the 400/85 work starts and the toll is about to be removed. I'm fine with that.

[ChadK]

Originally Posted by shivtim

^Slightly disappointing that they aren't building a new hotel (as was proposed years ago with the joint aloft/post building at Allen Plaza), but still great to see more investment in downtown. Hopefully they can incorporate some ground-level retail.

I think I actually like this plan better. It replaces a run down eyesore with something updated and leaves the originally considered lot available for future development.

It would be nice to have something at street level, but I bet a bar / restaurant / café would work well given that The Mart is directly across the street.

[RudyJK]

Originally Posted by sevensixtwo

I think $0.01 is too small. We can use transit reform to stimulate more jobs by putting more money into it. I think if people were excited about the initiative $0.05 or $0.03 would easily be accepted.

You live in a very strange world -- possibly devoid of reality?

[delarosa]

Originally Posted by RudyJK

You live in a very strange world -- possibly devoid of reality?

Yeah...isn't the municipal sales tax (not including MARTA) limited to 2% by state law? Seems like an awful lot of people out there are quick to make voting/policy decisions on armchair brainstorming vs greater (or any) consideration of actual constraints and incentives.

[testarossa50]

Right, we need additional revenue sources and SPLOSTS are off the table for the foreseeable future. Roads always have the option of tolls for new capacity (which I generally support, although the specific I-75 project seems like the wrong place to do it). But public transit really has no options.

Really, getting another county to approve MARTA is the best thing that could happen. But expansion resulting from this would probably be limited.

Clayton's revenues would probably only be what...$20 million a year maybe? That would be enough to set up a decent bus system and potentially finance a small rail expansion southward, but it's not going to be much.

Cobb seems off the table. Getting rail to Cobb is so ridiculously expensive that it seems unlikely it will ever happen at this point.

Gwinnett is the real prize. Since MARTA goes all the way to its doorstep, there's a plausible argument that a 1% MARTA tax could (1) get them a bunch of bus routes and (2) finance a substantial extension of the Gold Line. But Gwinnett seems tricky, too: MARTA rail would still only penetrate a small chunk of the county.

[ATLaffinity]

Originally Posted by sevensixtwo

I remember that if the transit climate in America ever does change, it will be easy to build trains on the wide highways coursing in and out of large cities. Not saying that I think this will happen right away, but I do see a benefit investing in wider roads.

Now I think you are a parody poster.

I love the idea that wider roads are actually a Trojan horse to effect a European rail utopia. But, yeah, that won't happen "right away".