One only needs a basic understanding of house mortgage financing, the numbers provided by the City Manager and the City of Ottawa to confirm the costs. A god tool for calculating mortgage amounts can be found at Brett Whistle online amortization schedule
http://bretwhissel.net/amortization/
or
click here Most banks also have loan calculators online. The City Manager is on the record as stating the cost of the project will be $179M. The City Manager ( see City of Ottawa report )however left out a
$2.8M social housing contribution that taxpayers are stuck with for the developers condos. Normally developers pay that fee but taxpayers aka council have taken that expense away as well. The new financing amount becomes $181.8M. The City Manager is also on the record as stating the new financing amount will be a 40 year debenture ( mortgage ) at 4.63%. Plug in the numbers and you can verify for yourself.
The hidden annual maintenance charge ( see City of Ottawa report )may be seen in
City Manager report here Look towards the bottom of the report for the balance sheet.
It is not rocket science and taking the word of your city officials while possibly noble is not realistic. Each of them have to rely on reports made by segments from within the same organization. Arguing with political masters is a sure fire way to have a short lived government or municipal career. Dig a little. Figure out the total cost financed, including maintenance, and subtract the amount of cash being given to taxpayers. To calculate developer profits use a liberal figure of $290 cost per sqft of development space on roughly 650,000 sqft, lease it out at roughly $35 per sqft per year of combined tower and retail. Then sell 400,000 sqft of condos at $570 per sqft and subtract a liberal $380 per sqft construction cost. Worked out that is a quick $76M just for the condo sales ( now calculate the ROI for the developer for three years of work - hint 50% on investment ). Annual lease returns are $23M on an initial investment of $188.5M. Short term loans or even use of cash decreases the recovery time, but safe to say they are making money by year 7. Now you have 23 years at 2.5% annual growth on $23M per year. Any developer worth their salt will as demonstrated reinvest the cash in another project at 50% ROI.
As mentioned try and find the upside for the taxpayer. I agree it takes a bit of math but that beats being spoon fed.
The amount OSEG pays back can be seen at
City of Ottawa report
So if we are saying that taxpayers are being shafted out of valuable public space then let us look at the alternative of the taxpayer keeping the park and paying for it by open tender. Currently the loss is well over $300M with the developers, and that includes giving away highly valuable public land for private use. One only has to ask can the park be made useful, including fixing up the stadium ( roughly $100M ) for less than $300M ?
Pretty safe to say that for $200M the park could be done by taxpayers alone and the City renting out lease space, or for that matter a different P3 allowing a better private firm to manage the public facility. Keeping the space public and returning rent to the taxpayer is a much better deal for Ottawa and small business and tourism.