Quote:
Originally Posted by polishavenger
These three parts of your response highlight why I think your position is fundamentally flawed.
Firstly, the old purpose of the NC LRT may have been to just service the fringes, but the scope has evolved and the need to provide service for the communities between the fringe and the core is part of the current thinking. Just because you havent been able to let go of 30 year old thinking, doesnt mean others havent moved on and realized there is a lot of benefit to spending more up front and getting much more back in return.
Second, if we continue on as business as usual, then this city will grind to a halt because there is no way we can keep up with road and ctrain building to service constant suburban growth. At a given size, low density starts to fail.
The LRT is not commuter rail anymore, it services more than just people on the fringe, so it needs to be developed accordingly. Its a testiment to bad planning that the LRT was not developed with express service capablility in mind.
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I've said it before, but the biggest flaw in PW's thinking is that he says that 7th Ave will eventually be tunnelled as well (in addition to 8th Ave) - and this is key to his entire arguement. Without it being done, everyone knows that the Nose Creek alignment has no hope. However, I've pointed out before that going to 4 car trains, plus removing the 201 line off of 7th Ave automatically allows the 202 line to have 267% of the capacity that it has currently - and that doesn't yet account for the fact that there are slightly more 201s going through downtown than 202s, and doesn't account for efficiencies due to not having to deal with switching, nor other operational improvements that may be possible in the future. Essentially, a 7th Ave surface line (as it is currently) for the 202 can effectively handle 3 times as many people as it does now. There will definitely be growth, but it's hard to imagine that there will be 3x growth in ridership - at least until decades after the NC line goes ahead.
However, if we are talking about the LRT being so successful that it does in fact grow by 3x in the next 20 years or so, that would mean that the percentage of people riding transit had increased significantly, and there would be increased demand to build a better north central line than a nose creek alignment could offer, and certainly the political will would be there as well. Also, if growth had been that dramatic, why would we then limit future growth by again interlining?
In PW's mind, the nose creek alignment is so much cheaper because there would already be a ROW that would work into downtown, and that another one would not have to be built. However, it just simply isn't the case. The additional cost to build an additional ROW into downtown from Nose Creek would even up some or all of the cost difference.
Also, of note, is that from Harvest Hills Blvd/96th Ave to downtown is about 4.5 km longer distance along the Nose Creek route. This adds to the travel time, which makes the route less attractive for riders, plus adds operational costs. A longer route would also require more LRVs to provide the same headway times. Needing to continue with more buses in the NC area adds to the operational costs as well. There would likely have to be some expensive BRT infrastructure added south of Beddington Trail, and again, that would eat up the cost savings.
With all of the extra cost factors of the Nose Creek alignment, the cost savings associated with that line really start to dwindle, and cost savings is the only reason why anyone considered that route in the first place. A central alignment may cost a bit more, but the difference isn't as big as one might think. Either way, it's a hugely expensive project that isn't going to get done without significant help from other levels of government.
Pros of a Nose Creek alignment:
Lower infrastructure cost
Shorter branch to connect to Airport Terminal
Cons of a Nose Creek alignment:
longer travel time
Higher operational cost
Less effective transportation network for the north central area
doesn't maximize the usage potential of the 2nd Street subway of the SE line
May require extra infrastructure in the NC area on top of the LRT
Would limit future growth on the NC and NE lines, or require an expensive additional ROW into downtown.
Promotes further suburban growth over further densification.
Far less redevelopment/TOD potential.
Rough estimates for additional capital costs incurred by a Nose Creek routing (in today's dollars):
Additional ROW downtown - would have to be tunnelled - $500-700 million
Additional 4.5 km of track - $150-250 million.
Additional 8-10 LRVs - $30-40 million
Alternate Centre Street infrastructure (Streetcar or full BRT) - $100-300 million
If we take numbers in the middle of each of those estimates, we are already at around a billion dollars. A billion dollars gets a fairly significant portion of any tunnel/elevated section of a Centre Street alignment done. North of 64th can likely be surface rail, and south a fair distance from that could be elevated, or at worst cut and cover - and while both of those are more expensive than surface rail, neither of those options is going to add more than several hundred million to the project cost. The portion from Eau Claire to North of 16th Ave is the most difficult part, but good engineering should be able to keep the costs down. Honestly I can't see a central route costing more than, say $500 million more than a Nose Creek route. Combine that with operating savings of millions of dollars a year, and I think the choice is more than obvious.