Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[caltrane74]

The most positive thing happening now, is that household debt is starting to reverse itself. Although the bad news is, that home prices continue to rise, which in theory is fuelling the bubble.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Me&You

Ummm, wanna check your math again? 1% of the GTA housing units = 500,000? So there's 50,000,000 units in the GTA? No wonder some think there's a housing bubble...

Hah, indeed. Lesson here is don't participate in forums after a 14 hour workday. Go straight to bed

Please adjust numbers to suit.

The point I intended to convey is that as a culture we've discovered that the suburban house with a long commute isn't for everybody, and that a small percentage of current suburban home owners or their children deciding to try the urban lifestyle can create demand for a ton of downtown housing provided they can afford it.

If the suburban commute magically became significantly easier the interest in downtown condos would be reduced immediately.

[urbandreamer]

Actually Caltrane my gold analogy is this: $GOLD has crashed so why wouldn't condos follow? The Chinese heavily bought the top of the gold market, so they'll surely be feeling the pinch...dump their condos???

[cornholio]

I believe that we will once again in the future begin to move away from mass urbanization as technology improves and commuting, goods movement, communication, remote work and shopping etc. becomes more efficient and practical. I don't mean some rapid major shift necessarily but what I mean is the pressure will turn from slightly positive in regards to urbanization to slightly negative.

[caltrane74]

Humans are social creatures, thats why I believe there will be continued trend towards urban living. To colaborate in person over coffee or lunch probably beats telecommuting.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

Humans are social creatures, thats why I believe there will be continued trend towards urban living. To colaborate in person over coffee or lunch probably beats telecommuting.

A trend implies a choice. A choice we haven't.

Crushing debt will force inward urbanism. We can no longer afford to invest in development that does not generate a return; putting endless rural development and urban sprawl on municipal and provincial credit cards will eventually stop. The rising costs of construction materials, labour, gas, food, freshwater, and virtually everything else is forcing people to live as affordably as possible -- and this means living in a city, close to services and work, using infrastructure in which we've already invested.

Climate Change in particular is a big driving force for inward urbanism. Aside from sprawl's economic unsustainability -- it is not at all environmentally sustainable. And since our economy is dependent on the environment, climate change will make our lives increasingly expensive, as crops fail, our remaining forests burn, as regions must face a reality of constantly rebuilding after major storms, and as every country will be faced with record numbers of domestic and foreign refugees.

[osmo]

We are a long ways from that in Canada. Urbanism will only become natural through Govt polices. The country is still only 2% inhabited the lure of moving outward will always remain its just a matter if Govt will make it a reality going forward.

[caltrane74]

The only problem is that its not a sustainable solution moving forward. Also not as efficient from an overall productivity standpoint.

[caltrane74]

Some unintended benefits of the condo boom. Section 37 money which is paid to the city, or donations to the public good. Really helping with the artist community on Queen West.

Read here

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/nation...ondo-boom/article2430700/?service=mobile

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by osmo

We are a long ways from that in Canada. Urbanism will only become natural through Govt polices. The country is still only 2% inhabited the lure of moving outward will always remain its just a matter if Govt will make it a reality going forward.

Totally delusional. First off, don't throw 2% at me when not even 50% of Canada is anywhere CLOSE to being applicable for living demands. If you have eyes and if you've ever bothered a glance at a Canadian map, then you should compute that the vast majority of the populous lives in the south.

Secondly, you talk as though there is no such thing as a global economy of which Canada is greatly a part. Canadian profits will be harmed as its trading partners are harmed.

I'm sick and tired of people claiming that Canada doesn't have to immediately be concerned with climate change because ...ya know...like...what's the big deal, like, if our summer is a lil' warmer, ya know? Let's go buy some shoes!...

The stupidity of Canadians about the lands inside their own borders is baffling... I bet not even half the population understands what permafrost is -- or how it's thawing, releasing copious amounts of methane (20X stronger greenhouse gas than CO2) into the atmosphere.

The growing problem looming over our heads is going to wallop us -- because clearly, we are going to wait for this problem to become painfully obvious before we get off ours asses to do something about it.

The problem wasn't made overnight, so the repair won't either.
To fight climate change will mean tolerating a lengthy duration of severe culling.

[Waterlooson]

^^ Experts agree that Canada will have a net economic benefit if the climate warms.... Much of your fretting is for naught. So take a chill pill and relax.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Waterlooson

^^ Experts agree that Canada will have a net economic benefit if the climate warms.... Much of your fretting is for naught. So take a chill pill and relax.

Give me one source for these apparent 'experts'; and I don't want a source from an oil company.

[osmo]

No need to explode. I am just stating the obvious with economic growth comes the desire to separate and attain space. In reality you could probably fit 30 million in Southern Ontario nicely. There will always be a desire to expand outward, Govt polices will be the only thing to stamp it out. If you don't build roads to far flung places or build sewer lines then expansion won't take place.

It's not a issue of people living on barren lands or marsh. It's highways and cultural ideals.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by osmo

No need to explode. I am just stating the obvious with economic growth comes the desire to separate and attain space. In reality you could probably fit 30 million in Southern Ontario nicely. There will always be a desire to expand outward, Govt polices will be the only thing to stamp it out. If you don't build roads to far flung places or build sewer lines then expansion won't take place.

It's not a issue of people living on barren lands or marsh. It's highways and cultural ideals.

With inward urbanism, you could fit 30 million in just Toronto, nicely. Large cities are not unimaginable.

Will governments stamp out sprawl? Perhaps it's more likely that investment in sprawled developments stops on its own, as even the interest payments of our infrastructural debts becomes unaffordable?

[Waterlooson]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

Give me one source for these apparent 'experts'; and I don't want a source from an oil company.

Here's one:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=cff56e4b-5273-456c-9f31-5d3081e9aa3a

"It’s not all bad - a warmer climate has benefits, especially for certain northerly regions, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, a group of university economists and anthropologists is predicting."

If you would have done your own proper research before spouting off your dome and gloom, you wouldn't have had to ask me for this reference.

[caltrane74]

• Tridel is responsible for 10% of GTA condo sales
• Of the 2100 units they sold last year they reported 95% were locals and/or end users
• Tridel says offshore investors have a minimal impact on the Toronto market

Read the article here

http://www.tridel.com/blog/2012/05/10/bl...it-the-question-of-a-condo-bubble-market

[Innsertnamehere]

offshore investers have a minimal impact in tridel sales.....

many smaller developments have a very obvious offshore investers focus to their marketing and unit style as well.

[caltrane74]

True alot of smaller projects in particular in the entertainment district seem to focus on offshore investors.

Most aricles I read this weekend, are siding with those that do not believe there is a bubble in the Toronto Market.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Waterlooson

Here's one:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=cff56e4b-5273-456c-9f31-5d3081e9aa3a

"It’s not all bad - a warmer climate has benefits, especially for certain northerly regions, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, a group of university economists and anthropologists is predicting."

If you would have done your own proper research before spouting off your dome and gloom, you wouldn't have had to ask me for this reference.

You are quite infantile. Please send a reference that isn't an opinion piece by an economics professor, but a collective, peer-reviewed study; you know, by actual scientists?...

And for God's sake -- if an opinion piece is all you can muster, can you please reference one a little more recent than 2008...

Welcome to 2012.

Exploration and resource extration in the newly revealed north from the receeding ice and melting permafrost is nothing new. It's one of the main reason why Russia hasn't bothered committing itself to sustainable, green development.

You should go live up north to avoid the flash floods, forest fires, hurricanes, tornados, and southern insects of which you aren't worried.

Though, unfortunately, in the north you won't be able to find any sand under which to bury your head.

[Tibor420]

^ Are you a member at UT?? I think you'd fit in perfectly there...

Even if people arnt living up to your expectations here... stop being an elitist — please