Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[caltrane74]

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1165183--toronto-real-estate-cooling-nah?bn=1

Toronto real estate cooling? Nah

Toronto’s gravity defying house prices should continue their upward climb over the next three years with gains of about 4 per cent both this year and next, predicts a new housing report by Central 1 Credit Union.




I copied the best part of the Article

“My view is that the market is not overvalued, that we’re not in a housing bubble. What we’re seeing is high prices that are just due to supply and demand fundamentals, for the most part,” says Pastrick.

“I don’t expect a price correction any time in the next couple of years.”

Pastrick remains similarly bullish on the condo market, which has raised concerns even in Ottawa that the record pace of condo construction in Toronto, in particular, is out of whack with reality.

Not so, says Pastrick.

“It looks like that market will perform reasonably well. There may be some oversupply coming but I think the market will generally handle that. It won’t have a widespread effect on the housing market in the rest of the GTA.”

In fact, with the GTA’s population expected to increase by about 45 per cent over the next 25 years, the need to go up, rather than out, is likely to keep demand for condos steady, he predicts.

[MolsonExport]

If Central 1 Credit Union says it is to be, then it is to be.

[caltrane74]

Just had to balance it out. Everyone is saying (or has said) the market will be crashing and so far none of them (including our Big Banks) has been right.

Probably not time to get excited about a real estate market crash I've heard predictions on since 2003.....

[someone123]

I do think there's some truth to the "growing up, not out" argument. Some people view condos or big multi-unit buildings as a niche luxury form of housing, or think that urban infill buildings are a kind of fad. I think that view is outdated. Even if there is a housing crash I don't think Canadian cities that are now building condos will switch back to creating new 1970's-style bungalow belts. They don't scale well, cities like Toronto don't have the infrastructure for them, and a lot of people just aren't interested in that lifestyle now. For many newcomers moving to Toronto multi-unit is just the norm.

I'm in my 20's and I wouldn't pick a house over a condo, although I live in a really expensive real estate market. My condo is right by rapid transit, has a swimming pool and gym (plus large park next door), and has the square footage of a small house. A house at the same price would be a 30-40 minute drive farther out, would not have the same amenities, and would require more work to maintain. If I had more money I'd just get a nicer condo. A house in Vancouver doesn't make much sense to me. Same thing goes for Toronto.

[ssiguy]

On April 9th Freater Vancouver inventory {approx 1.6 million as does not include Surrey/Fraser Valley} was at 16,500, its now 17,130.
That is the highest level of inventory for this time of year this millenium and the HAM markey of Ditchmond now has 1020 SFH for sales which does not include condos and townhomes for sale.

[The Gibbroni]

It's coming. It will end in tears. Everyone will say "I told you so".

Although Caltrane will put a nifty spin on the disaster! "That stump is the Biggest Stump In North America!" "Never liked the effect of that supertall the skyline" "That's OK, that parking lot is a great place to meet hoochie-mamas!".

[Policy Wonk]

The bust will come like any other, when the supply of stupid money is exhausted.

The bust will be bad and will probably have far reaching consequences. But at the end of the day the condos will still be there and people will live in them. They will find their natural place in the cycle of residential succession. Urbanity wise - that is probably a satisfactory outcome, fiscally it will be a shitstorm.

I don't think a bust will be limited to Toronto or Vancouver because the heard mentality that got us to this point isn't exactly a rational force and in a panic sell-off the market will perceive systemic risk and flood the market coast to coast.

[caltrane74]

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/posted-...building-boom-help-keep-the-city-growing

The crane operators’ union estimates 300 tower cranes toil right now in greater Toronto, far more than any other city in North America. Operators are shipping cranes here from the United States, England and Italy to meet local demand.

Some fun facts

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

I don't think a bust will be limited to Toronto or Vancouver because the heard mentality that got us to this point isn't exactly a rational force and in a panic sell-off the market will perceive systemic risk and flood the market coast to coast.

I've wondered how that will play out. I think some smaller markets like Regina or Saskatoon and possibly St. John's might be overvalued as well. Housing prices in the Maritimes are pretty reasonable and haven't gone up much despite a reasonably good economy. Halifax's average price is still sitting around $260,000. Housing everywhere else in the Maritimes is dirt cheap outside of expensive resort type areas.

Ottawa I guess might be in for a rough year with federal job cuts.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by someone123

I've wondered how that will play out. I think some smaller markets like Regina or Saskatoon and possibly St. John's might be overvalued as well. Housing prices in the Maritimes are pretty reasonable and haven't gone up much despite a reasonably good economy. Halifax's average price is still sitting around $260,000. Housing everywhere else in the Maritimes is dirt cheap outside of expensive resort type areas.

Ottawa I guess might be in for a rough year with federal job cuts and its real estate supposedly is almost as expensive as Calgary's.

Corrections will happen all around. It will be diverse all the way to neighborhoods. We talk Vancouver and Toronto but numbers wise the Oakanagan Valley is probably in the worst shape and already starting to put up high foreclosure numbers. A lot of boomers threw money into there for retirement. People say when that area goes of the rails then the game is done.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by osmo

Corrections will happen all around. It will be diverse all the way to neighborhoods. We talk Vancouver and Toronto but numbers wise the Oakanagan Valley is probably in the worst shape and already starting to put up high foreclosure numbers. A lot of boomers threw money into there for retirement. People say when that area goes of the rails then the game is done.

Well, a lot of BC even outside of Vancouver is much crazier than similar areas in other parts of Canada and I think it will see more of a "correction". Kelowna is more dependent on resort type development than most towns. Vancouver Island is very expensive despite not having any major cities and not much of an economy.

Halifax seems to be in a fundamentally different situation. It's going to have lots of job creation for the next few years unless something goes really wrong but its housing prices have only gone up modestly -- something like 2.9% last year, for example. It also, as far as I know, has almost none of the kind of frenzied condo buying you see in some other markets. If demand for condos were to drop to zero tomorrow there wouldn't be the same kind of inventory on the market you'd see in Toronto or Vancouver. Maybe housing prices will crash in Halifax too but I could see them staying around the same while BC's prices drops. There might be some other Canadian markets like this too. I don't know how expensive Winnipeg is, for example.

Moncton is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada but you can still easily get a house there for $160,000. I don't see those prices dropping as much as the $600,000 shoebox luxury condos in Vancouver unless something really bad happens to the local economy.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by someone123

Well, a lot of BC even outside of Vancouver is much crazier than similar areas in other parts of Canada and I think it will see more of a "correction". Kelowna is more dependent on resort type development than most towns. Vancouver Island is very expensive despite not having any major cities and not much of an economy.

Halifax seems to be in a fundamentally different situation. It's going to have lots of job creation for the next few years unless something goes really wrong but its housing prices have only gone up modestly -- something like 2.9% last year, for example. It also, as far as I know, has almost none of the kind of frenzied condo buying you see in some other markets. If demand for condos were to drop to zero tomorrow there wouldn't be the same kind of inventory on the market you'd see in Toronto or Vancouver. Maybe housing prices will crash in Halifax too but I could see them staying around the same while BC's prices drops. There might be some other Canadian markets like this too. I don't know how expensive Winnipeg is, for example.

Moncton is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada but you can still easily get a house there for $160,000. I don't see those prices dropping as much as the $600,000 shoebox luxury condos in Vancouver unless something really bad happens to the local economy.

The Maritimes prices seem to be keeping pace with inflation and yes I agree are still rising at modest levels. If prices are only rising 3% then one can't expect much of a drop at all. The Maritimes being long ignored will become a blessing for it down the road, that's how it has been (for the most part) in Sask also.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by osmo

The Maritimes prices seem to be keeping pace with inflation and yes I agree are still rising at modest levels. If prices are only rising 3% then one can't expect much of a drop at all. The Maritimes being long ignored will become a blessing for it down the road, that's how it has been (for the most part) in Sask also.

That how it was in Sask... the last 5 years have been pretty crazy though. Granted we are still below the national average and things seem to have stabilized somewhat over the last lilttle while (increases now about 5% year over year), but it's definitely not as affordable as it used to be. That said, I don't think there would be much of a correction here if the bubble were to burst elsewhere.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/posted-...building-boom-help-keep-the-city-growing

The crane operators’ union estimates 300 tower cranes toil right now in greater Toronto, far more than any other city in North America. Operators are shipping cranes here from the United States, England and Italy to meet local demand.

Some fun facts

And 80% of the condos sold are to speculators.

This won't end well.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by Berklon

And 80% of the condos sold are to speculators.

This won't end well.

Oh don't worry. We'll just require each speculator to bring in two more speculators. That way the good times can go on forever.

[caltrane74]

Just heard on the news today.

Toronto condo market just crashed. All condo construction is coming to a halt on Sunday night, after a review of city officials to ensure the safety of the equipment. I was wrong, I thought this could go on forever.

[caltrane74]

The New York Times on the virtues of downtown living in Toronto

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=...esanddestinations/20iht-retoronto20.html

[NetMapel]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

Just heard on the news today.

Toronto condo market just crashed. All condo construction is coming to a halt on Sunday night, after a review of city officials to ensure the safety of the equipment. I was wrong, I thought this could go on forever.

What ?

[caltrane74]

Just trying to predict the Toronto Condo Market Crash. - I was wrong, the market will crash next week. I will make sure to post articles to support the downturn.

[osmo]

The NYT article says 200k people live downtown? Really? Where? I don't see them. They don't have a crazy impact on the urban landscape. Many Condo dwellers still drive and are a stones throw from the Gardiner.