The Official Moncton, NB Project Thread

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Atlantic Canada Population by Economic Region (Top 10):

Halifax (HRM) - 390,328
Avalon (St. John's) - 262,410
Moncton/Richibucto - 203,837
Saint John/St. Stephen - 172,764
Campbellton/Miramichi - 158,741
North Shore (NS) - 155,696
Prince Edward Island - 140,204
Cape Breton - 135,974
Fredericton/Oromocto - 135,467
Annapolis Valley - 123,649

this will make mmmatt's day, he was hoping to see the Moncton ER blow past the 200k barrier.

It does indeed!! Census day is always one of my favorites

To me the ER and Urban Area (now called population center) figures are the most important to a "city" and my idea of a city does not take into account the small creek between the new cibc on main, and the swiss chalet on champlain.

ER shows the greater area picture, those are the people who commute in to the city for work, play, shopping, and medical service.

POPCTR shows the urban built up area of a "city". The "core" if you will.

In 2011 we saw our ER pass 200,000 and our POPCTR fly past 100,000. Hopefully this will continue into the future!

I've updated my signature already...and while I had held a hope to place a little "1st" on all of those numbers (although I figured I wouldnt)...I can take solace in the fact that the census subdivision of Moncton now has a population density of 489.3 / sqkm in comparison to Saint Johns density of 221.8 / sqkm.

[MonctonRad]

I knew that you would be happy mmmatt

I just updated Wikipedia with all the Moncton stats.

[mylesmalley]

Be curious to see what this does to the federal riding boundaries. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe is 31% higher than the average population of a riding. My understanding is that you have to adjust boundaries if the number is +/- 10% of average. However both neighbouring ridings are right on target. Moncton needs to shed 16,000 people into Fundy Royal and Beausejour, but that would put both of those ridings into the over 10% category too.

[mylesmalley]

Also worth noting. In the last census, Nova Scotia's population was right around 25% higher than NB's. As of 2011, we've narrowed the gap to just over 22%.

I doubt it's realistic, but if we achieved the Population Growth Secretariat's goal of increasing our population to 850,000 by 2021, we'd be less than 10% apart. That'd be huge of the economy and for government coffers.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

I'm actually really surprised by Halifax. I thought the general consensus was that they'd break 400k this census.

These are uncorrected raw census totals and are usually around 3% off (or more). The population estimates are probably more accurate for total counts but they don't come along with all the other data.

Not sure when they will release corrected data for 2011, but if you are interested in population counts you're better off just following the estimates year to year. Despite this fact I of course expect a steady stream of T&T articles pronouncing Moncton as the undisputed economic champion of Eastern Canada.

[q12]

Just need to clarify a few things regarding Halifax.

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

I'm actually really surprised by Halifax. I thought the general consensus was that they'd break 400k this census.

Our population estimate is over 403K and is atleast 410k today.

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

If the growth trends continue as is at the next census:

Halifax: 408,673
Moncton: 152,092
Saint John: 133,382
St John's: 214,190

Halifax's growth trend will not be the same in the next census.

Originally Posted by mmmatt

ER shows the greater area picture, those are the people who commute in to the city for work, play, shopping, and medical service.

If this is what ER is supose to show Halifax's ER would remove the far east of HRM and add in parts of Hants county and Lunenburg County. This would likely have our ER close to 450,000.

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Also worth noting. In the last census, Nova Scotia's population was right around 25% higher than NB's. As of 2011, we've narrowed the gap to just over 22%.

I doubt it's realistic, but if we achieved the Population Growth Secretariat's goal of increasing our population to 850,000 by 2021, we'd be less than 10% apart. That'd be huge of the economy and for government coffers.

This is not going happen.

[riverviewer]

Love when Moncton gets positive headlines. And New Brunswick too!

"New Brunswick population growth jumps, census says" - National Post

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/08/new-brunswick-population-growth-jumps-census-says/

[Jstaleness]

Global National News decided to just cover the top 4 tonight. Would have been nice to have seen a top 5 which would have included Moncton.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by q12

Just need to clarify a few things regarding Halifax.
Our population estimate is over 403K and is atleast 410k today.


Halifax's growth trend will not be the same in the next census.


If this is what ER is supose to show Halifax's ER would remove the far east of HRM and add in parts of Hants county and Lunenburg County. This would likely have our ER close to 450,000.


This is not going happen.

Nice to see some of the apologists from the Halifax forum dropping by. (I don't consider you an apologist JStaleness)

Yes, these are raw stats that may be revised in the upcoming months, but keep in mind that it would be highly unlikely that Halifax's population would be revised upwards by 20,000 people to 410k. I could see maybe 4-5k, but not 20k.

If the Halifax stats get revised, then so will the Moncton stats. There are estimates out there that Moncton is already past 140k. I can believe that.

In any event, StatsCan says that Halifax's growth rate is 4.7%. The Moncton growth rate is more than double this at 9.7%. To find a municipality with a growth rate higher than ours, you would have to travel as far west as Saskatoon.

Sorry q12.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by Jstaleness

Global National News decided to just cover the top 4 tonight. Would have been nice to have seen a top 5 which would have included Moncton.

They probably just found it too hard to find a way to cram a fisherman or EI recipient into a news story about population growth in the East Coast.

[Haliguy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Nice to see some of the apologists from the Halifax forum dropping by. (I don't mean you JStaleness)

Yes, these are raw stats that may be revised in the upcoming months, but keep in mind that it would be highly unlikely that Halifax's population would be revised upwards by 20,000 people to 410k. I could see maybe 4-5k, but not 20k.

If the Halifax stats get revised, then so will the Moncton stats. There are estimates out there that Moncton is already past 140k. I can believe that.

In any event, StatsCan says that Halifax's growth rate is 4.7%. The Moncton growth rate is more than double this at 9.7%. To find a municipality with a growth rate higher than ours, you would have to travel as far west as Saskatoon.

Sorry q12.

Congrats Moncton on your amazing growth rate. However it won't be the same next time as the migration of the Acadian population into Moncton slows down and as the Ship yard contract and offshore exploration picks up... Halifax is in for a major growth spurt. Oh yes and we will have a new mayor hopefully...haha

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Haliguy

Congrats Moncton on your amazing growth rate. However it won't be the same next time as the migration of the Acadian population into Moncton slows down and as the Ship yard contract and offshore exploration picks up... Halifax is in for a major growth spurt. Oh yes and we will have a new mayor hopefully...haha

No question that Halifax is primed for good times for the next 15-20 years, and that your growth rate will accelerate accordingly. I wouldn't be surprised if you aren't at 500k by 2025.

But don't underestimate Moncton. The growth in our community isn't just due to the Acadian exodus from the north. There was a study about 4-5 years ago showing that only 40% of the city's growth was attributable to this. People also move to the city from other places in southern NB as well as NS and PEI. I think about 15% of new arrivals to the city are from Ontario. In addition, we process about 500 immigrants from other countries at The Moncton Hospital each year for immigration chest x-rays.

By 2025, I predict Moncton will be about 165-170,000.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes, these are raw stats that may be revised in the upcoming months, but keep in mind that it would be highly unlikely that Halifax's population would be revised upwards by 20,000 people to 410k. I could see maybe 4-5k, but not 20k.

If the Halifax stats get revised, then so will the Moncton stats. There are estimates out there that Moncton is already past 140k. I can believe that.

The raw census numbers are way off the estimates for Halifax but are above what was expected for Moncton, and it's not necessarily a given that both cities will be corrected upward by the same amount.

Last census the average error between the corrected census figures and the population estimates for CMAs was only 0.51%. I don't know what the corrected numbers will be but it is not far-fetched to say that they will be similar to the estimates.

According to the estimates including what they showed for January 2011-January 2012 for the labour force characteristics, Moncton's growth rate has been right around 1.6% for several years and Halifax's growth rate has been around 1.3%.

PS - should I call you an "apologist" too the next time you post in the Halifax section?

[mylesmalley]

Come on, people... why so touchy? I know this forum is usually like lighting up a cigarette in a fireworks factory, but lately it's just gotten ridiculous.

[MonctonRad]

The 2011 census numbers are based on completed census forms. As such, I can't imagine the population numbers being revised downwards. Overcounting can't be a significant factor. Undercounting could occur of course, which is why census figures could be revised upwards.

Halifax very well could be close to 400k. Moncton very well could be over 140k.

I retract the "apologist" remark. I sometimes forget that attempts at dry humour (wit) can sometimes get lost in a text driven medium.

[NBNYer]

Impressive numbers for Moncton!

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

If the growth trends continue as is at the next census:

Halifax: 408,673
Moncton: 152,092
Saint John: 133,382
St John's: 214,190

It sure is fun to make predictions. So many unknown factors will affect these numbers, a few other factors we know. Like many others mentioned before, Halifax will likely skyrocket past this number once the shipbuilding contract kicks into high gear and its economic effects are felt.

Another issue is the Moncton CMA boundary. The 06 census reported that 48% of the Shediac workforce worked outside of their census division. I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of these people work within the Moncton CMA. This means that Shediac may soon clinch the 50% commuter threshold for a community to be included in a neighboring CMA.

Shediac hit 6000 this census and really is part of the Moncton metro area for all intents and purposes and should be included in the CMA. As crazy as this sounds, if the same growth rate is sustained and Shediac is added, the CMA could actually be pushing 160 000 in the next round.

[brod3211]

I think we should all just be happy that the maritimes as a whole has grown and is moving forward... We no longer have to take the back burner to other parts of the country. As separate cities we are strong, imagine us working together.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Nice to see some of the apologists from the Halifax forum dropping by. (I don't consider you an apologist JStaleness)

Yes, these are raw stats that may be revised in the upcoming months, but keep in mind that it would be highly unlikely that Halifax's population would be revised upwards by 20,000 people to 410k. I could see maybe 4-5k, but not 20k.

If the Halifax stats get revised, then so will the Moncton stats. There are estimates out there that Moncton is already past 140k. I can believe that.

In any event, StatsCan says that Halifax's growth rate is 4.7%. The Moncton growth rate is more than double this at 9.7%. To find a municipality with a growth rate higher than ours, you would have to travel as far west as Saskatoon.

Sorry q12.

Just to be clear I didn't have any issues with Moncton's numbers and congrats on your current growth.

It's really pointless for cities in Atlantic Canada to bicker over population figures. I think the one figure we should all be interested in growing is Atlantic Canada's overall population compared to the rest of Canada. We are at risk of becoming less and less relevant to the rest of country.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by q12

It's really pointless for cities in Atlantic Canada to bicker over population figures. I think the one figure we should all be interested in growing is Atlantic Canada's overall population compared to the rest of Canada. We are at risk of becoming less and less relevant to the rest of country.

Amen to that q12.

This has actually been a very good census for all of Atlantic Canada with all four provinces showing reasonably good population growth. Rural areas may be dwindling in terms of population, but at least urban growth has more than made up for it.

There are about a half dozen "winner" communities in the region. This is a good thing which augers well for the future.

With the shipbuilding contract in Halifax, offshore oil in NS and NF, and natural gas and potash in NB, there may be enough economic activity in the region to propel us into the future.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by q12

It's really pointless for cities in Atlantic Canada to bicker over population figures. I think the one figure we should all be interested in growing is Atlantic Canada's overall population compared to the rest of Canada. We are at risk of becoming less and less relevant to the rest of country.

A lot of this stuff is seriously overblown. There are articles out there pronouncing Ontario's impending doom because its annual population growth rate was down 0.2% or something compared to 2001-2006. In another 5 years when Ontario does well they will announce that Alberta is dying. It is ridiculous.

What matters most for Atlantic Canada is that it have a good quality of life, not that it have a large population. Many parts of the planet have large populations and are miserable. Many corners of Canada and the US have large populations and are totally forgettable -- most population growth in Canadian cities is going into uninteresting, unsustainable cookie cutter subdivisions. I think if Toronto's growth rate dropped by 50% it would actually be better off, because they're not building enough infrastructure to handle the new people.