The Official Saint John, NB Project Thread

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by Wolkenkratzerliebhab

I was talking to a professional welder this evenning, and he said that rumors coming from his union was that the refinery deal was indeed a real possibility, and that would make it at least
a $10 billion or more project, making it a mega-project like the Halifax shipyard contract. However, until we get more information on what in hell the mayor is talking about, rumors are just that...rumors!

The dream of a new refinery is dead. In fact, given the margins on Brent Sea Crude pricing refineries like Irving ( compared to $8 cheaper per barrel West Texas Intermediate purchasing refining competitors in USA ) we should be thankful the current refinery is even operating. We are naive to think it would never close down. Imperial refinery in Dartmouth will likely close and a slew of refineries closed recently in North America, including one in Montreal and Marcus Hook in the northeast USA. Besides credit is tighter now and I don't think anyone out there would finance $8 to $10 billion refineries when they are closing all over the world. From what I understand Irving laid off 20% of their workers and is contracting so that it can survive until this spread between WTI and Brent evens out again.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Wolkenkratzerliebhab

The reason is simple: The mayor compared it to Halifax, plain and simple!

Who? The guy who won't be mayor come May?

[SJTOKO]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

There was talk of the Saint John "region" to locate it. But if the mayor is excited one would think Saint John. Unless its right on port property, it would make sense to process it in Sussex and ship it by train just the once. The only ideal location I can think of as far as access to rail lines to their terminal would be behind Crown Street where the old cotton mill used to be - but who knows how big they are. I googled it and other new plants around the world range from $500 million to 1.5 Biliion to build. I,m just glad we are realizing that we should send out value added product rather than raw product so that jobs are created here and we benefit from our natural resources.

The plant will be built near Lorneville in the industrial park... The construction of a shipping terminal was started there a few years ago but was never completed.

It will be completed by the new company and the entire operation will be based there.

Cheers...

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by SJTOKO

The plant will be built near Lorneville in the industrial park... The construction of a shipping terminal was started there a few years ago but was never completed.

It will be completed by the new company and the entire operation will be based there.

Cheers...

Will it process potash from the current mines, or only from the new deposits being explored? If current mine, wonder if they will fear down potash sheds in south end and close terminal?

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

In fact, given the margins on Brent Sea Crude p

Interesting theory but Brent Sea Crude is actually seeing very good profits these days.

Not sure where you heard that Irving laid off 20% but that is inaccurate. That would be all over the news.

The rumors of a second refinery are extremely strong within the financial world right now, it is interesting to hear that the unions are also hearing the same thing. Starting to look likely that something is being planned.

That combined with all the new port activity and we could see a boom at least on par with Halifax. That would be amazing for the region in general.

[DoyleRulez]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

That, and combined with shale gas, 'omg radiation!!!' would probably put this place over the edge.

Shale gas is terrible for the environment. "Canadian" Nuclear power plants are arguably the greenest source of power in the world. Less damaging on the environment than the environmental alterations created by Hydro dams, and have a smaller carbon footprint than the production of windmills.

Radiation Propoganda is a pet peeve of mine, fear is derived from ignorance.

Originally Posted by Wolkenkratzerliebhab

I agree, because I remember that a French nuclear giant wanted to build one or more reactors, and that would be a good thing indeed!

If Areva built in NB it would mark the first time a Light Water reactor was built in Canada (Fukashima anyone?) and the first time it wasn't built by Canadians with a Canadian technology (No chance of Chernobyl or Fukashima with Heavy water design). It would crush our single most successful Canadian technology sector of the last century. The entire industry would be infiltrated and the economy of another country would benefit.

Oh, but we voted Harper back into a majority party leader and he paid SNC-Lavalin 79 billion$ to take it all off our hands along with all the assets. Good Job Liberals!

The company is set to make billions in the coming years. And if they fail?...little known fact, but Harper ensured canadian tax payers are still on the hook for any losses incurred. Yay!

Point Lepreau was originally designed to be 2 reactors but conservative SJ voted against it. A bank of 2-4 additional reactors would be the greatest thing to ever happen to Southern NB. It would create a decade worth of Construction and in 25-30 years when we Decommission PLGS we would still have another 25-30 years out of the new reactors left. Also the majority of the transportation lines to the southern states have already been constructed.

On another topic, The Oil Refinery is already past its designed Life expectancy, if we dont build another, we will be decommissioning the one we do have in the next few years.

With mounting tension and a $400 million dollar arms build up by the Americans in the Middle East on Christmas Day (most people probably didnt catch that cause they were busy openeing presents) we are set to endure another propoganda war being created. Americans are pinning the Iranians with shutting down the main supply line of oil from OPEC nations. Oil prices will rise significantly in North America meaning a lot of rich American politicians stand to gain alot from this "new war".

But Irving will benefit as well, Saint Johnners will get a second refinery and the Tar Sands will boom again out West....

I wouldn't be surprised to see a second reactor announce in the next 3 months, as Lepreau will be complete and fired up again by the end of summer with most work wrapping up in spring. The skilled trades are here now and we would be wise to keep them before they leave for out west, Halifax and Newfoundland.

Happy new Year!

[Ire Narissis]

I'm with you on nuclear energy, Doyle. There's a lot of fearmongering and misinformation circulating about it, and disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima add fuel to the fire for opponents of nuclear energy.

Nevermind that Chernobyl occurred only because of unsafe experiments being carried out in secret on an already-unsafe reactor design, or that Fukushima occurred because of a barrage of severe natural disasters beyond what anyone could have foreseen. In New Brunswick we have no fear of a disaster on par with Fukushima since the Bay of Fundy is not about to experience a tsunami, nor an earthquake of that magnitude.

Having said all that, I do feel that, as much as I support nuclear energy, the world would be wise to invest in developing technologies that are even safer and that mitigate the spent fuel storage issue. I would love to see development of liquid fuel thorium reactors happen in earnest; they have incredible potential.

[kwajo]

Originally Posted by SJTOKO

The plant will be built near Lorneville in the industrial park... The construction of a shipping terminal was started there a few years ago but was never completed.

It will be completed by the new company and the entire operation will be based there.

Cheers...

Are you sure it's not going in the McAllister industrial park?

[DoyleRulez]

Agreed. Future technologies are the answer, but even if something like Fusion is solved in the next 5 years, we will not likely start to experience the benefits until well into retirement (I'm in my mid 20's)

Point Lepreau and Canadian technology literally cannot melt down, even if a Tsunami hit, because our reactors are Heavy Water designs. A loss of coolant, literally stops the reaction and the reactor just shuts down.

Think if you pulled the coollant and oil out of your car when if you were going full bore on a dyno. The engine would just seize up. The reaction would stop. No meltdown would be possible because theres no more nuclear motion. Your car would be toast in this example though.

Also the spent fuel issue is largely misunderstood. Spent fuel from Canadian reactors cannot be used for Nuclear weapons as it is not refined uranium like american and french tech. Also it only takes about 100 years for radiation to decay and you would be able to handle the majority of it by hand in open air, not 100's of thousands of year as I often see in print.

**In other news I think Boston Pizza will do extremely well on the West Side.

[Ire Narissis]

Heh... well, the radioactivity issue was what I was referring to. I was under the impression that even light water power reactors didn't produce isotopes fit for weapons-grade applications. But I could easily be wrong about that.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

Interesting theory but Brent Sea Crude is actually seeing very good profits these days.

Not sure where you heard that Irving laid off 20% but that is inaccurate. That would be all over the news.

The rumors of a second refinery are extremely strong within the financial world right now, it is interesting to hear that the unions are also hearing the same thing. Starting to look likely that something is being planned.

That combined with all the new port activity and we could see a boom at least on par with Halifax. That would be amazing for the region in general.

I think my posting was misunderstood. Firstly as far as profits go with crude prices - that is only for oil companies that extract the oil from the ground. Irving does not extract it - in fact have to purchase that crude at that high price. The margins on gasoline currently for many refineries ranges from marginally little to negative. Irving competes mostly in the USA northeast - they are competing with companies that refine their oil in Louisiana and Texas where WTI is $8 cheaper per barrel than Brent - that puts Irving at a huge competitive disadvantage. Think of Irving as a USA refinery on Canadian soil. As for layoffs - it was in the news:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/11/29/nb-irving-oil-layoffs.html
That's only office staff - not including refinery workers let go and contractors. Times are lean in the refining industry but I think Irving will survive this negative cycle - however a second refinery is dead. Irving and BP concluded that gasoline consumption has actually peaked in North America in 2007 and is now declining due to more fuel efficient cars, an aging population that drives less, alternative fuels and the weak economy.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by DoyleRulez

Shale gas is terrible for the environment. "Canadian" Nuclear power plants are arguably the greenest source of power in the world. Less damaging on the environment than the environmental alterations created by Hydro dams, and have a smaller carbon footprint than the production of windmills.

Radiation Propoganda is a pet peeve of mine, fear is derived from ignorance.



If Areva built in NB it would mark the first time a Light Water reactor was built in Canada (Fukashima anyone?) and the first time it wasn't built by Canadians with a Canadian technology (No chance of Chernobyl or Fukashima with Heavy water design). It would crush our single most successful Canadian technology sector of the last century. The entire industry would be infiltrated and the economy of another country would benefit.

Oh, but we voted Harper back into a majority party leader and he paid SNC-Lavalin 79 billion$ to take it all off our hands along with all the assets. Good Job Liberals!

The company is set to make billions in the coming years. And if they fail?...little known fact, but Harper ensured canadian tax payers are still on the hook for any losses incurred. Yay!

Point Lepreau was originally designed to be 2 reactors but conservative SJ voted against it. A bank of 2-4 additional reactors would be the greatest thing to ever happen to Southern NB. It would create a decade worth of Construction and in 25-30 years when we Decommission PLGS we would still have another 25-30 years out of the new reactors left. Also the majority of the transportation lines to the southern states have already been constructed.

On another topic, The Oil Refinery is already past its designed Life expectancy, if we dont build another, we will be decommissioning the one we do have in the next few years.

With mounting tension and a $400 million dollar arms build up by the Americans in the Middle East on Christmas Day (most people probably didnt catch that cause they were busy openeing presents) we are set to endure another propoganda war being created. Americans are pinning the Iranians with shutting down the main supply line of oil from OPEC nations. Oil prices will rise significantly in North America meaning a lot of rich American politicians stand to gain alot from this "new war".

But Irving will benefit as well, Saint Johnners will get a second refinery and the Tar Sands will boom again out West....

I wouldn't be surprised to see a second reactor announce in the next 3 months, as Lepreau will be complete and fired up again by the end of summer with most work wrapping up in spring. The skilled trades are here now and we would be wise to keep them before they leave for out west, Halifax and Newfoundland.

Happy new Year!

Say what? Half of it was built it 2000 with the King of Cats project. People in the know would tell you it is one of the best maintained refinery in the world!!

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

I think my posting was misunderstood.

Not misunderstood, just disagreed with.

Originally Posted by cdnguys

As for layoffs - it was in the news:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/11/29/nb-irving-oil-layoffs.html That's only office staff - not including refinery workers let go and contractors.

Huh? I am unaware of any refinery workers that were let go? If 78 people is 20% of Irvings workforce they are indeed in trouble. I think your original quote is quite inaccurate.

Originally Posted by cdnguys

Times are lean in the refining industry but I think Irving will survive this negative cycle - however a second refinery is dead. Irving and BP concluded that gasoline consumption has actually peaked in North America in 2007 and is now declining due to more fuel efficient cars, an aging population that drives less, alternative fuels and the weak economy.

Yes, the weak economy stopped the project in 2007. The US economy continues to rebound nicely. As our dollar gets weaker that is of course a significant advantage for the Irving's.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

Not misunderstood, just disagreed with.


Huh? I am unaware of any refinery workers that were let go? If 78 people is 20% of Irvings workforce they are indeed in trouble. I think your original quote is quite inaccurate.



Yes, the weak economy stopped the project in 2007. The US economy continues to rebound nicely. As our dollar gets weaker that is of course a significant advantage for the Irving's.

My good friend was laid off along with over 100 tradespeople in the maintenance program just before Xmas. That's not a rumor but fact.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

Not misunderstood, just disagreed with.


Huh? I am unaware of any refinery workers that were let go? If 78 people is 20% of Irvings workforce they are indeed in trouble. I think your original quote is quite inaccurate.



Yes, the weak economy stopped the project in 2007. The US economy continues to rebound nicely. As our dollar gets weaker that is of course a significant advantage for the Irving's.

If you re read my post it's says office staff not refinery. Number is accurate

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

My good friend was laid off along with over 100 tradespeople in the maintenance program just before Xmas. That's not a rumor but fact.

Can it be confirmed or denied that Irving is looking at stepping away from Unionized plumbers and pipefitters at the refinery so 1)They can lay-off workers at more ease whenever and 2)They can pay them less?

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by GregHickman

Can it be confirmed or denied that Irving is looking at stepping away from Unionized plumbers and pipefitters at the refinery so 1)They can lay-off workers at more ease whenever and 2)They can pay them less?

Irving does not employ the tradespeople. Maintenance is contracted out to Jacobs Industrial Services and a few other small contractors. Asked my buddy and said he didn't think that would be the case as relations are very well between Irving / Contractors / Unions at refinery.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

Irving does not employ the tradespeople. Maintenance is contracted out to Jacobs Industrial Services and a few other small contractors. Asked my buddy and said he didn't think that would be the case as relations are very well between Irving / Contractors / Unions at refinery.

Understood.

Originally Posted by DoyleRulez

**In other news I think Boston Pizza will do extremely well on the West Side.

I can't agree with this more.

[ErickMontreal]

Whatever happens, something needs to happen!

According to this, SJ dropped 2,100 jobs while Moncton was gaining 3,400.

Saint John saw a 3% drop in employment in 2011 alone.

[Wolkenkratzerliebhab]

Originally Posted by nwalbert

Interesting theory but Brent Sea Crude is actually seeing very good profits these days.

Not sure where you heard that Irving laid off 20% but that is inaccurate. That would be all over the news.

The rumors of a second refinery are extremely strong within the financial world right now, it is interesting to hear that the unions are also hearing the same thing. Starting to look likely that something is being planned.

That combined with all the new port activity and we could see a boom at least on par with Halifax. That would be amazing for the region in general.

I sure hope so!