Quote:
Originally Posted by DowntownRiderFan
To assume they haven't read the potash production tax regs is pretty naive. At this point (pre-feasibility) when all the variables (e.g., production, price etc.) that would go into such a model are assumed as the annual average over the life of the project there really is no need to 'model' the royalty rate as it will work out to the same rate over the life of the mine. A quick calculation shows that based on their assumed price of potash the royalty rate equals $0.057/$1.00, about the 'nickle on the dollar' that Mr. Lingefelter keeps talking about.
They will likely provide a more complex analysis/estimate during the feasibility study.
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It is true that just like all the condo and office tower proposals, not all the proposed mines around Regina are likely to be built. It seems to me there are at least 4 greenfield mine projects at various stages of progress in the immediate vicinitiy of Regina. They are Vale, K+S, Rio Tinto and Western - each one has an estimated cost of $3B+. Also Mosaic has a $1B brownfield expansion on the go at Belle Plaine.
Regarding royalties, there is some good information here:
http://www.saskchamber.com/files/File/Re...oyalty%20and%20Mining%20Tax%20Regime.pdf
The Chamber says potash royalties have averaged less than 15% of sales in the last decade. There are numerous variables and it is a complex calculation. Of course with recent higher prices, that percentage is likely now much higher as one of the royalites is a very progressive profits tax. On the other hand, the producers get credits for their massive capital investments and this will keep rates lower in the short term.
Regardless, it would appear that we are in for a short term construction boom and a long term royalty boom.