Federal Elections

[reidjr]

Originally Posted by Admiral Nelson

You're trivializing the difference in spending priorities. $30B fighter jets won't make secondary education more accessible or help the disadvantaged climb out of poverty. Hell, throwing that kind of money at building high-speed rail lines would provide a much bigger economic boon.

If its spent on secondary education i would be all for it my point is all partys have wish lists some good and well some are a waste i truley beleave this plan for the jets is a complete waste.What i don't want is canada to become a country where the gov does everything from day care to telling people what to eat etc.

[Cre47]

Considering, what happen in the Throne Speech yesterday, are we seeing a future PM? She would definitely get my support before Harper, Rae, Trudeau or even Layton, Dewar and Elizabeth May. This is the thing I like from this Canada, stand up against the nonsense in politics. If the youth movement can just continue to built in politics. By that time, I might be too old already.

[reidjr]

Originally Posted by Cre47

Considering, what happen in the Throne Speech yesterday, are we seeing a future PM? She would definitely get my support before Harper, Rae, Trudeau or even Layton, Dewar and Elizabeth May. This is the thing I like from this Canada, stand up against the nonsense in politics. If the youth movement can just continue to built in politics. By that time, I might be too old already.

As for non sense like it or not the people did speak and that is why harper has a majority.

[Ottawan]

Originally Posted by Cre47

Considering, what happen in the Throne Speech yesterday, are we seeing a future PM? She would definitely get my support before Harper, Rae, Trudeau or even Layton, Dewar and Elizabeth May. This is the thing I like from this Canada, stand up against the nonsense in politics. If the youth movement can just continue to built in politics. By that time, I might be too old already.

I was busy Friday and missed it. What exactly happened, and who is "she"?

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by Ottawan

I was busy Friday and missed it. What exactly happened, and who is "she"?

A 21-year old women who was actually working within the Canadian Senate as a page basically just showed her opposition to the Harper Regime by showing a Stop Harper sign. Nothing drastic but she got kicked out and fired and there are a lot of supporters praising her gutsy move and some are even wanting her to go for the PM job. I would support her for sure. And maybe that could be the next avater so maybe I will ditch the Captain Lights avatar soon. Note that on the youtube video below she looks a little bit like Lights.

During multiple interviews, she blasted the radical right-wing agenda of the Conservatives citing basically the same stuff I've been blasting them in this forum, the fancy jets, the jails, the big corporation tax cuts and the wars.

She also wrote article blasting the G8/G20 fiasco and the crime/youth policy. So she is known to be quite the activist too.

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/pub...g20-waste-time

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/pub...ner-city-youth


She also indicated that Conservative values are not Canadien values contrary to Stevie-o's statement said in the Citizen. She also cited that this country needed its version of Arab spring in reference to the protests against dictatorial regimes in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Syria. And sure we want a mass load of protest in this country just like the Tea Party gang in the States against Obama.

Previously there was a video of her courtesy of TedxYouth Ottawa.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU5lIus-Zg

BTW reidjr 75%+ of Canadians didn't voted for this crap anyways. Among those who voted it was over 60%. Time for electoral reform. Big time! Sick and tired of old politics. Lets go the German or Italian way proportionnal to mixed proportionnal.

[Cre47]

Meanwhile, Jason Kenney is expanding its list of controversies since being named Minister.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney told Postmedia News DePape was a "lefty kook" and said it was unfortunate that the page program had been "shadowed" by Friday's event.

Well might as well call Don Cherry a right-wing "wacko".

[reidjr]

Originally Posted by Cre47

A 21-year old women who was actually working within the Canadian Senate as a page basically just showed her opposition to the Harper Regime by showing a Stop Harper sign. Nothing drastic but she got kicked out and fired and there are a lot of supporters praising her gutsy move and some are even wanting her to go for the PM job. I would support her for sure. And maybe that could be the next avater so maybe I will ditch the Captain Lights avatar soon. Note that on the youtube video below she looks a little bit like Lights.

During multiple interviews, she blasted the radical right-wing agenda of the Conservatives citing basically the same stuff I've been blasting them in this forum, the fancy jets, the jails, the big corporation tax cuts and the wars.

She also wrote article blasting the G8/G20 fiasco and the crime/youth policy. So she is known to be quite the activist too.

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/pub...g20-waste-time

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/pub...ner-city-youth


She also indicated that Conservative values are not Canadien values contrary to Stevie-o's statement said in the Citizen. She also cited that this country needed its version of Arab spring in reference to the protests against dictatorial regimes in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Syria. And sure we want a mass load of protest in this country just like the Tea Party gang in the States against Obama.

Previously there was a video of her courtesy of TedxYouth Ottawa.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU5lIus-Zg

BTW reidjr 75%+ of Canadians didn't voted for this crap anyways. Among those who voted it was over 60%. Time for electoral reform. Big time! Sick and tired of old politics. Lets go the German or Italian way proportionnal to mixed proportionnal.

Thats right and i was part of the 75% that did not vote for them but when people start comparing canada to the middle east i think thats going a bit far i am not saying page did but some posters on some messege boards have.I give page credit i think she means well but at the same time lets not get carried away making this into something much bigger then it really is.

[eternallyme]

Redistribution is underway, and Ontario has not yet been proposed, but other provinces have initial proposals made.

For the Ottawa area, here is how I would change the ridings:

Ottawa Centre - Add Sandy Hill and Lower Town. Remove Carleton Heights and all other areas west of Island Park and the Experimental Farm (use Island Park and Carling as the boundary to the O-Train line).

Ottawa East-Vanier - Remove the areas west of the Rideau River. Add Blackburn Hamlet and Cardinal Heights.

Ottawa South - No changes. If too large, maybe shift some extremities around (i.e. Billings Bridge, Uplands).

Ottawa West - Add the Carlington, Carleton Heights and Westboro portions of Ottawa Centre. Remove the parts in the former City of Nepean by aligning the western boundary to such.

Ottawa-Barrhaven - Renaming of Nepean-Carleton. Remove all areas north of Fallowfield, along with the former Townships of Osgoode and Rideau and the rural part of the former City of Gloucester that lies east of Hawthorne Road.

Ottawa-Kanata - New riding. It makes up the portions of Carleton-Mississippi Mills in the former City of Kanata, as well as the Stittsville area, that being bounded by Richardson Side Road, Spruce Ridge Road, a straight line down to Flelellyn and onward to Eagleson.

Ottawa-Nepean - New riding. It makes up the remaining parts of Ottawa West-Nepean that lie in the former City of Nepean, as well as the parts of Nepean-Carleton that lie north of Fallowfield.

Ottawa-Orleans - Remove the parts that lie in Blackburn Hamlet, Cardinal Heights and the rural part of southeast Gloucester (new southern boundary being the northern edge of Mer Bleue). Add the eastern fringes by realigning the boundary to Frank Kenny Road.

Rural ridings in eastern Ontario

Cornwall-Hawkesbury - Renaming of Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry. Remove all of the former County of Dundas. Add North Glengarry and the part of Prescott-Russell east of The Nation and Alfred and Plantaganet (but not including them).

Dundas-Leeds-Grenville - New riding partially derived from Leeds-Grenville. Includes the areas in the former Counties of Grenville and Dundas, as well as the remainder of Leeds-Grenville, excluding Gananoque, Rideau Lakes and Leeds and the Thousand Islands.

Frontenac-Lakelands - Renaming of Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington. Remove all of the Lanark County portions. Add the Islands from Kingston and the Islands, County of Prince Edward, Leeds and the Thousand Islands, Gananoque and Rideau Lakes.

Kingston - Renaming of Kingston and the Islands. Remove all parts that do not lie in the City of Kingston.

Lanark-Carleton - Renaming of Carleton-Mississippi Mills. Remove the former City of Kanata and the Stittsville area. Add the remainder of Lanark County and the former Township of Rideau.

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - No changes.

Russell-Carleton - Renaming of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Remove the parts in Glengarry and east of The Nation and Alfred and Plantaganet (but keep those two municipalities plus Clarence-Rockland and Russell). Add the former Township of Osgoode and the rural portions of the former Cities of Gloucester and Cumberland that lie east of Hawthorne Road.

[eternallyme]

That layout means 2 new seats for Ottawa.

Most likely, in that hypothetical setup, John Baird would run in the safer Ottawa-Nepean, making Ottawa West an open seat and a horse race (maybe a three-way race!). I would think Gordon O'Connor would run in Ottawa-Kanata, Scott Reid in Lanark-Carleton and Frontenac-Lakelands would be an open seat (likely safe Conservative regardless).

Presumptive MP's if that was the lineup:

Ottawa Centre: Paul Dewar (safer NDP)
Ottawa East-Vanier: Mauril Belanger (little change)
Ottawa South: David McGuinty (no change)
Ottawa West: open (likely battleground seat)
Ottawa-Barrhaven: Pierre Poilievre (little change)
Ottawa-Kanata: Gordon O'Connor (somewhat more marginal but still solid Conservative)
Ottawa-Nepean: John Baird (safer Conservative)
Ottawa-Orleans: Royal Galipeau (slightly safer Conservative)

Cornwall-Hawkesbury: Guy Lauzon (little change)
Dundas-Leeds-Grenville: Gord Brown (little change)
Frontenac-Lakelands open (likely safe Conservative)
Kingston: Ted Hsu (safer Liberal)
Lanark-Carleton: Scott Reid (safer Conservative)
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: Cheryl Gallant (no change)
Russell-Carleton: Pierre Lemieux (little change)

[McC]

Edmonton and Calgary's proposed realignment looks like it rationalizes urban representation in both of those cities (Edmonton was notorious for "pie-slice" ridings with slivers of core appended to larger swaths of suburb and rural); but I wasn't actually expecting Ottawa to win out with new seats, figuring they'd all go to Greater Golden Horseshoe. But our population has grown too, and we have some big ridings, but nothing like the Brampton ridings with over 130K.

@eternallyme: Curious if you know what the population of your revised Ottawa Centre would be? At Census2006, it was just under 110K.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by McC

Edmonton and Calgary's proposed realignment looks like it rationalizes urban representation in both of those cities (Edmonton was notorious for "pie-slice" ridings with slivers of core appended to larger swaths of suburb and rural); but I wasn't actually expecting Ottawa to win out with new seats, figuring they'd all go to Greater Golden Horseshoe. But our population has grown too, and we have some big ridings, but nothing like the Brampton ridings with over 130K.

@eternallyme: Curious if you know what the population of your revised Ottawa Centre would be? At Census2006, it was just under 110K.

I think it would be slightly smaller, around 105,000. I just think the whole downtown area should be one riding. (Paul Dewar would love that I would think too, it makes it stronger for him).

I think Ottawa and the region will gain 2 seats in the whole math, the southwest 1 and the rest in the GGH. Likely one of the new seats, no matter what, would be a safe Conservative seat (in the outer suburban and rural areas), and the other would be a tough match, since they would have to seriously gerrymander to make it safe for anyone without impacting current ridings.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

I think it would be slightly smaller, around 105,000. I just think the whole downtown area should be one riding. (Paul Dewar would love that I would think too, it makes it stronger for him).

Actually, Lowertown and Sandy Hill would (everything else being equal) reduce the transposed NDP over Liberal margin in the rejiggied Ottawa Centre. The NDP has some good polls for it in those neighbourhoods, but even as late as 2008 Bélanger swept everything but the student ghetto.

[eternallyme]

I also tried to do a few things in that setup:

* Kept areas of interest together. No riding includes areas on both sides of the Greenbelt, and no riding is significantly split between urban and rural.

* Since rural Ottawa and the surrounding counties have more interest and to make the map make more sense in the larger scope, rural Ottawa is entirely combined with Lanark and part of Prescott-Russell, not urban Ottawa.

* An exception is in areas that may become urban by 2025, in order to avoid suburban fringes in rural ridings (like the current Glengarry-Prescott-Russell extending into the far eastern edge of Orleans), the boundaries are set to cover such. For example, Stittsville in Ottawa-Kanata reaches a little bit beyond the community.

* I didn't think too much about political makeup to avoid a sense of gerrymandering, but surely by stacking urban, suburban and rural some ridings become safer (and a few more marginal).

* Former (pre-2001) municipalities play a major role in some cases. It provided a convenient boundary between Ottawa West and Ottawa-Nepean most notably. If Bayshore is better tied to Britannia and Carlingwood though, that area (and Crystal Beach) can go in Ottawa West and Carleton Heights can go in Ottawa-Nepean.

* I didn't touch the Gatineau side since I don't expect a great deal of change except for the Pontiac riding likely to intrude into the two urban ridings due to population growth.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Actually, Lowertown and Sandy Hill would (everything else being equal) reduce the transposed NDP over Liberal margin in the rejiggied Ottawa Centre. The NDP has some good polls for it in those neighbourhoods, but even as late as 2008 Bélanger swept everything but the student ghetto.

Not sure what the hell your talking about? Seriously, do some research before you post BS like that. Most polls in the south-eastern portion of the riding went to Hache (NDP), who is basically a place-holder candidate who has run numerous times for the NDP. If they got a credible name who actually campaigned, they could have won.

Also, my source:

http://earth.smurfmatic.net/canada2011/polls/#35065

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by toaster

Not sure what the hell your talking about? Seriously, do some research before you post BS like that. Most polls in the south-eastern portion of the riding went to Hache (NDP), who is basically a place-holder candidate who has run numerous times for the NDP. If they got a credible name who actually campaigned, they could have won.

Also, my source:

http://earth.smurfmatic.net/canada2011/polls/#35065

My same source, plus the raw data from Elections Canada.

The Market/Lowertown/Sandy Hill are more Liberal and less NDP in recent elections, including 2011, than Centretown/Glebe/other areas of the current Ottawa Centre. Despite winning many of those east-of-canal polls, the NDP didn't win them by nearly the same margins as Dewar did in the existing Ott-Cent.

Coupled with the removal of some good NDP ground from the current riding (esp. the West End Gentry), you get something similar to this (replace spaces with tabs):


Area Lib Con NDP GP Total
Ott Centre 9793 10703 26623 2590 50486
- Carleton Heights 554 1057 1279 104 3056
- West of Island Park 1547 2261 3991 384 8299
+ Sandy Hill/Lowertown 3559 1802 3928 561 9936
TOTAL 11251 9187 25281 2663 49067

(There's a few apartment/retirement polls I can't pin down, and I didn't transfer anything of poll 143 in Ott-Cent, because most of its population seems to be east of Island Park.)

So, you take a bunch of polls out of the current riding which in 2011 voted 46-29-19% for the NDP, Tories, and Liberals respectively, and add a similarly-populated bunch of polls which voted 40-36-18 NDP, Liberal, Tory respectively.

The Conservatives (for reasons which are not going to repeat in 2015) placed second in the existing riding in 2011. The overall effect of these proposed changes is to take an NDP 31.5% margin over the Tories, and turn it into an NDP 28.6% margin over the Liberals. And the NDP over Liberal margin would shrink by almost 5%

So, I repeat:

If you put areas east of the canal into Ottawa Centre, it reduces the NDP-over-Liberal margin in the newly-reconfigured riding, because the area east of the canal is less Dipper and more Liberal than the current Ottawa Centre.

Any more research you'd like done?

[toaster]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

My same source, plus the raw data from Elections Canada.

The Market/Lowertown/Sandy Hill are more Liberal and less NDP in recent elections, including 2011, than Centretown/Glebe/other areas of the current Ottawa Centre. Despite winning many of those east-of-canal polls, the NDP didn't win them by nearly the same margins as Dewar did in the existing Ott-Cent.

Coupled with the removal of some good NDP ground from the current riding (esp. the West End Gentry), you get something similar to this (replace spaces with tabs):


Area Lib Con NDP GP Total
Ott Centre 9793 10703 26623 2590 50486
- Carleton Heights 554 1057 1279 104 3056
- West of Island Park 1547 2261 3991 384 8299
+ Sandy Hill/Lowertown 3559 1802 3928 561 9936
TOTAL 11251 9187 25281 2663 49067

(There's a few apartment/retirement polls I can't pin down, and I didn't transfer anything of poll 143 in Ott-Cent, because most of its population seems to be east of Island Park.)

So, you take a bunch of polls out of the current riding which in 2011 voted 46-29-19% for the NDP, Tories, and Liberals respectively, and add a similarly-populated bunch of polls which voted 40-36-18 NDP, Liberal, Tory respectively.

The Conservatives (for reasons which are not going to repeat in 2015) placed second in the existing riding in 2011. The overall effect of these proposed changes is to take an NDP 31.5% margin over the Tories, and turn it into an NDP 28.6% margin over the Liberals. And the NDP over Liberal margin would shrink by almost 5%

So, I repeat:

If you put areas east of the canal into Ottawa Centre, it reduces the NDP-over-Liberal margin in the newly-reconfigured riding, because the area east of the canal is less Dipper and more Liberal than the current Ottawa Centre.

Any more research you'd like done?

If you mean coming in 2nd rather than 3rd, by "more Liberal" then fine. You seemed to imply that the Liberals had a fighting chance if these polls were moved in to Ott-Cent, which they don't. Maybe the NDP won by less amount of votes per poll in those areas than in Dewar's riding, but they still won them.

Anyway, I'm hoping they don't move these NDP-leaning polls of uOttawa and Lowertown, so that the NDP can stay competitive in Ott-Vanier. I'm sure this riding will be high on the NDP's list of target seats.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by toaster

If you mean coming in 2nd rather than 3rd, by "more Liberal" then fine. You seemed to imply that the Liberals had a fighting chance if these polls were moved in to Ott-Cent, which they don't.

Umm, no. You need to brush up on that reading comprehension:

Actually, Lowertown and Sandy Hill would (everything else being equal) reduce the transposed NDP over Liberal margin in the rejiggied Ottawa Centre.

The existing Ottawa Centre was 19.4% (regular polls; early voters excluded) in 2011.

Sandy Hill/Lowertown was 35.8% Liberal.

Sandy Hill/Lowertown was (is) more Liberal than the existing Ottawa Centre. Simple arithmetic. 35.8% is larger than 19.4%.

Moving these polls, as shown above, reduces the NDP's notional margin of victory in a seat reconfigured as per the original post.

Simple arithmetic. Sorry to break it to you.

[toaster]

I'm not sure where you are getting that 35.8%, but it sure isn't from Sandy Hill and Lowertown, unless you are extending your boundaries to include parts of Vanier or Rockliffe. The entire riding went 38% Liberal. That number was significantly less in the Sandy Hill and Lowertown areas of the riding where the NDP won most polls. And even if they did reach 35% in those areas, the NDP would be in the 40s. I'm not about to spend a day manually adding up only the polls of Lowertown and Sandy Hill, I've got more important things to do, but the fact is NDP won most polls in those 2 areas you list. As such, if the polls were moved over to this new Ottawa Centre, it wouldn't hurt the NDP that much, if at all. It's not like Ottawa Centre is even competitive at this point, so I don't see the point in arguing over this. We both agree this change would lesson the NDPs chance in Ottawa-Vanier.

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Umm, no. You need to brush up on that reading comprehension:


Actually, Lowertown and Sandy Hill would (everything else being equal) reduce the transposed NDP over Liberal margin in the rejiggied Ottawa Centre.

The existing Ottawa Centre was 19.4% (regular polls; early voters excluded) in 2011.

Sandy Hill/Lowertown was 35.8% Liberal.

Sandy Hill/Lowertown was (is) more Liberal than the existing Ottawa Centre. Simple arithmetic. 35.8% is larger than 19.4%.

Moving these polls, as shown above, reduces the NDP's notional margin of victory in a seat reconfigured as per the original post.

Simple arithmetic. Sorry to break it to you.

[McC]

Proposed new federal riding boundaries for Ontario have been released. I haven't looked at them yet to see how they compare to eternallyme's (predictions? model? suggestions? guess? whatever you want to call it!); anyway, let's meet back here later to discuss.

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...t=index&lang=e

[Capital Shaun]

I live in Beacon Hill South. I'm glad they fixed the boundary and that I'll be in the Ottawa-Vanier riding instead of Ottawa-Orleans.