SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA: Transit/Transportation News

[peanut gallery]

^It doesn't, which is why it hasn't been part of the SMART plan in any form.

I'm with you on the station location not being ideal. But apparently there is an issue with ROW to get the tracks across Sir Francis Drake and down to the ferry terminal. Not enough room to make the turn on the southern side of SFD if I recall correctly (there's a big hill sitting right in the way). It's not that long a walk though. I've had to park over there before on spare-the-air days when the ferries were free and the ferry parking lot full. There's a pedestrian bridge from Larkspur Landing to the terminal that helps. Who knows, maybe with the delay in bringing the line all the way to Larkspur they'll be able to work out a deal to bring it through one of those office parks? That whole area is built on hillsides, so I'm not sure what's even possible in terms of grading the tracks to bring SMART down to water level.

[Gordo]

The connection certainly isn't ideal, and if I remember correctly there were some talks to buy out some of the office buildings, but that fell apart for one reason or another.

More than anything, I just think there needs to be some kind of agreement made between SMART and the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway, and Transportation District (the agency that runs the GGT buses and GGF ferries). Right now they're set to compete against each other in many ways, without any kind of formal arrangement or plan to coordinate and share.

We won't be seeing SMART extended to Sausalito in any of our lifetimes, I would guess, unless there's some kind of major change in infrastructure spending and/or development in Marin itself. There are so many upgrades and extensions to SMART that would make sense long before that, and as pg mentioned, it would mostly be useful only as a tourist line (I'd totally ride it though, as would thousands of tourists, but I'm not convinced that that would be worth subsidizing the line). There's just not enough population near that potential line to outweigh what would be substantial costs to build a railroad across wetlands, inlets, built-up areas, and even a pretty substantial hill that would likely have to be tunneled between Corte Madera and Strawberry Village.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by peanut gallery

^It doesn't, which is why it hasn't been part of the SMART plan in any form.

I'm with you on the station location not being ideal. But apparently there is an issue with ROW to get the tracks across Sir Francis Drake and down to the ferry terminal. Not enough room to make the turn on the southern side of SFD if I recall correctly (there's a big hill sitting right in the way). It's not that long a walk though. I've had to park over there before on spare-the-air days when the ferries were free and the ferry parking lot full. There's a pedestrian bridge from Larkspur Landing to the terminal that helps. Who knows, maybe with the delay in bringing the line all the way to Larkspur they'll be able to work out a deal to bring it through one of those office parks? That whole area is built on hillsides, so I'm not sure what's even possible in terms of grading the tracks to bring SMART down to water level.

The area looks pretty flat in terrain maps and bird's-eye views... or at least flat by California standards. I've never actually been there, so I can't say for sure. But if the SMART right-of-way is higher in elevation than the ferry-terminal parking lot, then SMART can be extended across Sir Francis Drake on a short viaduct to a new platform right on the waterfront.

The viaduct could also be tied into a one-story parking deck... if the parking deck is used to reduce the amount of impermeable surface, I'm sure the Marin County liberals will eat it up.

The other option would be to build a new alignment on pilings in the river, going around the office parks.

[fieldsofdreams]

I hate to say this, but the current layout for the proposed Larkspur station does involve about a 1/2 mile gap between the station and the Ferry Terminal, in which SMART proposes to operate a shuttle service between them. For me, it's a good start, but, I think there must be adjustments that need to be made to make it fully happen: they need to relocate some of the existing structures located close to the future station, including the Marin Airporter terminal and its nearby parking lot, and overhaul the Larkspur Landing area to become more transit- and pedestrian-friendly by limiting automobile traffic to just carpool and commuter parking instead of going through the entire loop. It may cost a lot of money, but, it can improve the overall circulation of the station area. (Probably redesigning the shopping center would also work in this process since it will be a major commercial draw for commuters later on)

As for SMART to Sausalito, why not have one constructed up to at least Marin City where there is an abundance of bus routes going through the area? It will definitely work as a transfer center for southern Marin County that will attract even more passengers from Mill Valley and Strawberry.

[fieldsofdreams]

Oooh, Outer Sunset riders, rejoice: a new Muni line, called the NX - Judah Express, will start service on June 13th, 2011 to address the persistent overcrowding along the N Judah Muni Metro line. According to San Francisco Muni,

This extra service will supplement your existing N Judah Line rail service and provide you with a choice that will improve your N Line experience.

This service...

will be easy to recognize with its distinctive blue stripe around the roof line and windshield, purple beacons and the NX Judah Express logo featured prominently on the bus exterior. Route maps showing local stops and the express-service corridor will be posted inside each vehicle.

It will operate during the weekday peak-period service, similar to Muni's other express buses, and it will operate nonstop between Judah & 19th Avenue all the way to Bush & Montgomery (inbound) or from Sansome & Sutter (outbound) in the Financial District, with inbound trips operating between 6:30 and 9am with 10-minute intervals, and outbound trips operating between 4 and 6:30pm, also with 10-minute intervals. Regular fares will apply on this service.

More details can be found:

- on Muni's website
- as a PDF file

On both sites, a map of where the express buses will stop is included.

[northbay]

^ its 1/4 mile, not 1/2 mile. its the same distance from the san francisco ferry building to the embarcadero bart station. everyone im sure agrees that the current plan for the larkspur station is not ideal, but it all comes down to money (as you mentioned yourself). there simply isn't enough for the current plan let alone what you are proposing. so unless smart finds a big pile of money somewhere its not gonna happen. besides, smart doesnt 'own' the shopping center or the ferry terminal so they cant just rip it up and rebuild it. it would be cheaper to just build a bunch of moving sidewalks, but that comes with a bunch of headaches too.

as for future extensions: i think extensions to sonoma or north to ukiah are much more likely as tracks and ROW already exist. an extension to richmond as gordo suggested would be much less complicated and cheaper than a rail line over the golden gate, but still is very unlikely. any extension south of larkspur will run into mountains, and a lot of rich NIMBYs who won't be riding the train anyways. the ridership wont justify the enormous cost.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by northbay

^ its 1/4 mile, not 1/2 mile. its the same distance from the san francisco ferry building to the embarcadero bart station. everyone im sure agrees that the current plan for the larkspur station is not ideal, but it all comes down to money (as you mentioned yourself). there simply isn't enough for the current plan let alone what you are proposing. so unless smart finds a big pile of money somewhere its not gonna happen. besides, smart doesnt 'own' the shopping center or the ferry terminal so they cant just rip it up and rebuild it. it would be cheaper to just build a bunch of moving sidewalks, but that comes with a bunch of headaches too.

Then cut off the project in Petaluma if there's not enough money. Making the connection at Larkspur seamless is a make-or-break proposition for the entire railroad. No commuter to SF will walk 1/2 mile through various shopping center and office complex parking lots, then across a long windswept pedestrian bridge, then across another parking lot to reach the dock. That commuter will gladly just drive down the 101 into the city, or continue to drive to Larkspur.

BART planners understood this when they designed eBART... the transfer at Pittsburg will be completely seamless and instant... just walk across the platform from the DMU to the BART train that is already waiting there. (The platform needs a roof in case of rain, but it's perfect otherwise)

[northbay]

^ actually only a few are projected to commute to san francisco. the vast majority are expected to be commuting within their respective counties.

im hoping that the phasing of the project allows them the chance to rethink the ferry connection, but i have a feeling that's wishful thinking. the ebart transfer is just from ebart to bart, but here we're talking different agencies - plus private owners and a difficult site. this is just a little more complicated.

(the ebart transfer has its flaws too - its not at the pittsburg bart station but at a second isolated transfer-only station.)

also ardecila, smart MUST include santa rosa, leaving out the largest city on the line would be silly. santa rosa is roughly the size of san rafael, novato and petaluma combined.

[Gordo]

As northbay mentioned, SMART is not really intended to connect Sonoma and Marin commuters to SF, it's more for Sonoma commuters to connect to Marin (Marin is now a net exporter of jobs) and to a lesser degree to provide a trunk line for commuting intra-either county or Marin to Sonoma.

The connection to the ferry is a logical endpoint, but it's not expected to be a primary driver of ridership. A good comparison of SMART's goal is something along the lines of how Caltrain ridership now falls, with the Larkspur endpoint analogous to 4th & King in SF. Ridership is heavy at commute times, but in both directions with several stations having substantial boardings/alightings. Larkspur will likely be the busiest station (as 4th & King is with Caltrain), but probably won't be as big of a draw as 4th & King, which is the busiest station for boardings AND alightings at all times of the day (a lot of reverse commuting and leisure trips originate in SF).

I can't seem to find the most recent ridership projections by station, but if I remember correctly Santa Rosa was projected to have the highest ridership of the initial line, with a couple other stations coming before Larkspur as well (can't remember which ones though - downtown San Rafael maybe? I think even Windsor was up there pretty high.)

eBART, on the other hand, is expected to really only be for folks connecting to the BART system, so it makes sense that that connection should be its largest concern. eBART's only real goal is to get people to and from that station.

[fieldsofdreams]

The connection to the ferry is a logical endpoint, but it's not expected to be a primary driver of ridership. A good comparison of SMART's goal is something along the lines of how Caltrain ridership now falls, with the Larkspur endpoint analogous to 4th & King in SF. Ridership is heavy at commute times, but in both directions with several stations having substantial boardings/alightings. Larkspur will likely be the busiest station (as 4th & King is with Caltrain), but probably won't be as big of a draw as 4th & King, which is the busiest station for boardings AND alightings at all times of the day (a lot of reverse commuting and leisure trips originate in SF).

I believe that Larkspur will not actually be the busiest station. In my opinion, the two busiest stations when SMART finally opens will be:

- Downtown San Rafael (thanks to the San Rafael Transit Center close by, a major transit hub for buses)
- Santa Rosa/Jennings Square (thanks to nearby Santa Rosa Transit Mall, with adequate connections to Santa Rosa CityBus)

However, I think that the Larkspur terminal station can be improved by putting the station closer to the ferry terminal rather than located close to the Marin Airporter terminal because it will reduce the walk time for commuters to connect between the ferry and the rail significantly, plus it's right next to a large park-and-ride area. And yes, Marin has a lot more jobs that it has become a job center, presenting another sign that the Bay Area has shifted its job base significantly away from the traditional centers of San Francisco and Oakland, which means when the train opens, it will ultimately remind me of the failed Golden Gate Transit Route 75 that used to provide service between Santa Rosa and San Rafael which was cut due to low ridership.

[northbay]

Originally Posted by fieldsofdreams

I believe that Larkspur will not actually be the busiest station. In my opinion, the two busiest stations when SMART finally opens will be:

- Downtown San Rafael (thanks to the San Rafael Transit Center close by, a major transit hub for buses)
- Santa Rosa/Jennings Square (thanks to nearby Santa Rosa Transit Mall, with adequate connections to Santa Rosa CityBus)

....

i think you mean RAILROAD square. jennings avenue was where the north santa rosa station was originally going to be located, but it is instead going to be closer to coddingtown mall on guerneville rd.

i agree that san rafael will be at least one of the busiest. i'll try finding the ridership projections when i have time.

[electricron]

Here's some recent projections, I wish it's was station by station, but it isn't.
http://www.sonomamarintrain.org/userfile...%20Ridership%20Update%20Presentation.pdf
IOS= Initial Operating Segment (downtown Santa Rosa-downtown San Rafael)
Full= Cloverdale-Larkspur
2015 IOS = 2,900 trips/weekday
2035 IOS = 4,800 trips/weekday
2035 Full = 6,550 trips/weekday

Key Assumptions
* Land use and population characteristics of ABAG Projections 2007 (different than 2006 EIR)
* Highway & transit improvements per MTC Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)
* No special increase in density around stations, other than what’s in ABAG Projections
* Substantial increase in gasoline prices by 2035- $7.47/gallon, but 32.2 mpg Avg. Fuel Economy
* SMART Shuttles make timed connections

Defining the Total Market
RTP Travel Forecasts for just inter-county commute trips, by all modes of travel:
2015
* 12,100 trips Marin residents-Sonoma jobs
* 29,300 trips Sonoma residents-Marin jobs
*41,400 total weekday trips
2035
* 16,100 trips Marin residents-Sonoma jobs
* 37,300 trips Sonoma residents-Marin jobs
* 53,400 total weekday trips

FYI, just a little bit of math.....
2,900 / 41,400 = 7%
4,800 / 53,400 = 9%
6,550 / 53,400 = 12%

Some more math...
2,900 passengers / 158 passenger seats per train = >18 trains.
Let's get real and assume 25% of the seats are empty per train as an average, they'll need to run at least 23 trains a day, or up to 12 round trips...

With a train running on average every half hour, they'll need to run trains for 6 hours each day, 3 hours in the am and 3 hours in the pm.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Gordo

As northbay mentioned, SMART is not really intended to connect Sonoma and Marin commuters to SF, it's more for Sonoma commuters to connect to Marin (Marin is now a net exporter of jobs) and to a lesser degree to provide a trunk line for commuting intra-either county or Marin to Sonoma.

Is SMART really oriented to serve these jobs? IIRC, downtown San Rafael, Novato, Petaluma, Santa Rosa, etc. are mostly lifestyle centers, with shopping and restaurants - not employment centers. Maybe Santa Rosa has some employment, but its downtown is pretty low-scaled.

[Gordo]

They're not huge employment centers, but that's largely why ridership isn't projected to be huge. San Rafael (in addition to Santa Rosa) does have a pretty decent amount of employment downtown, and Petaluma has some pretty aggressive development planned for downtown office space.

There's going to be a lot of dependence on local transit being re-routed to serve the stations, and the oft-cited "SMART shuttles" that connect major employers to stations. The shuttles are taking a page directly from Caltrain, which has upwards of 10,000 folks a day ferried back and forth from the Caltrain line via employer-owned and operated shuttles in the South Bay and on the Peninsula (you should see the line of Bauer buses at the Mountain View, Palo alto, or Sunnyvale stops in the morning - there are often 30+ at each station)

[fflint]

Originally Posted by SMART projection

2035 Full = 6,550 trips/weekday

Capitol Corridor gets about that many weekday riders these days, IIRC, and with a much longer corridor.

[northbay]

here's some station ridership numbers from 2002, so they're dated:

http://www.sonomamarintrain.org/documents/RidershipReport-LEHRev.PDF

[sammyg]

Originally Posted by fflint

Capitol Corridor gets about that many weekday riders these days, IIRC, and with a much longer corridor.

And Capitol Corridor doesn't go into downtown SF, either.

[Gordo]

Originally Posted by fflint

Capitol Corridor gets about that many weekday riders these days, IIRC, and with a much longer corridor.

In defense of SMART, the Capitol Corridor does pass through an area with a much, much larger population, generally higher population densities, and some fairly large trip generators like UC Davis.

IMO, if Capitol Corridor didn't have the track sharing issues that it has (especially with regard to the oft-delay prone section between Richmond and Fairfield), we'd see ridership significantly higher than it already is even without investing in more equipment and higher service frequencies. It's an absolute slam-dunk of a corridor for rail.

[northbay]

^ exactly, the capital corridor connects two large metropolitan areas. smart just connects two outlying bay area counties.

it should be noted that smart IS needed however. large stretches of 101 have 'F' levels of service during rush hour and widening the freeway past the planned/current 4 lanes in marin and 3 in sonoma is physically, politically and economically infeasible.

[fflint]

If SMART can get the same ridership at today's Cap Corridor it will be very impressive, for the reasons noted above. It wasn't meant as a slap at SMART, but rather as a compliment.