Transit Capacity Planning 101
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_webdoc_6-c.pdf
There's many variables that affects train headways and capacity. Commuter rail operations vary significantly across the country.
Commuter rail ridership in North America is dominated by the systems in the New York area where the busiest routes use electric multiple-unit trains on dedicated tracks with little or no freight service. The capacity of such systems can best be determined from the procedures of Chapter 6, Grade-Separated Systems Capacity.
The final step in the complete method of determining a grade-separated rail transit line’s maximum capacity is to determine the closest (minimum) headway as the sum of the calculated value of the minimum signaling system train separation, plus the calculated or estimated value of dwell time, plus the assigned operating margin.
Equation
H min = T(s) + td + tom
The maximum number of trains per hour Tmax then is:
Equation
T max = 3,600 / H min = 3,600 / T(s) + td + tom
The maximum capacity Cmax is the number of trains multiplied by their length and the number of passengers per unit length, adjusted from peak-within-the peak to peak hour.
Equation
Cmax = Tmax LPm (PHF) = 3,600 LPm (PHF) / T(s) + td + tom
where:
Hmin = minimum headway (s);
T(s) = minimum train separation (s);
td = dwell time (s);
tom = operating margin (s);
Tmax = train throughput per hour;
Cmax = maximum single track capacity in passengers per peak hour direction;
L = train length (m or ft);
Pm = loading level in passengers per meter or foot of train length; and
PHF = peak hour factor
Remember, these formulas are for calculating the maximum passenger capacity. Engineers design corridors for specific goals, which determines the size of trains, type of platforms, type of train controls, number of tracks, and headways of trains, etc.
An engineer can design for less. Engineers can design timetables or schedules for train meets, and determine where passing sidings are require. But there is a point where smaller headways will require more tracks.