Calgary Public Transit II

[Koolfire]

Originally Posted by Bassic Lab

I would not be surprised if the operational profit on a combined N-SE line was in the neighbourhood of 150-200 million a year in 2010 dollars. The city has reported operational expenses on the current LRT system of roughly $0.25 per rider. The question is how would that change the current revenue versus cost situation for Calgary Transit. If we would end up with significant savings it could really help us to afford a major contribution.

I would be surprised
150,000,000/365 days= 410958.9 Profit a day
410958.9/$2.25= 182648.4 passengers a day
Consider a person takes 2 trips a day.
So about 91,000 people a day need to make a trip back and forth everyday of the year. About 8% of the population of Calgary.

Currently the Weekday boardings for the South and NW line is about 190,000.

So yeah, I would be quite surprised. 100 million might be more realistic.

[Koolfire]

Double post

[Koolfire]

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

Well, it all depends. If we could get a 30 year funding agreement from the province at $200 million a year starting in 2017, with the agreement being that the amount comes first out of the gas tax/MSI/everything, before it transfers to the city, and then get the feds to buy into $60 million a year dedicated from the federal transfer it could be doable.

Raising $90 million from the city shouldn't be all too hard. Remember the agreement would cover operations and maintenance while the city gets the fares.

I whipped up a quick excel sheet that uses payment availability to calculate the size of capital investment a business may be willing to make based on the assumptions contained within:


I'll post this excel sheet with areas marked that you can modify on google docs in a couple minutes.

Edit:
Here it is:

You can modify the cells marked green. https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=...51anEtc2VOQUFYM2c&hl=en&authkey=CNOOkdUG

525 million profit on 5 billion for 30 years is like a 0.2% return per year. I guess the interest would be paid to the company which would make it a 4.2% return. That would be a really hard sell to any investor as there is risks in cost overruns.

Now if the company gets 9% per year then it would be good. But 260 million with 35 million operating expense works out to a 2.3 billion capital expense up front.

It's really insane that if the city could save 260 per year and get 9% then it would only take less then 7 years to get 2.3 billion in capital. But then you get into inflation and the project costs 3 billion etc.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by Koolfire

I would be surprised
150,000,000/365 days= 410958.9 Profit a day
410958.9/$2.25= 182648.4 passengers a day
Consider a person takes 2 trips a day.
So about 91,000 people a day need to make a trip back and forth everyday of the year. About 8% of the population of Calgary.

Currently the Weekday boardings for the South and NW line is about 190,000.

So yeah, I would be quite surprised. 100 million might be more realistic.

It was a quick back of the envelope kind of thing but I don't think it would be too unrealistic as a high end projection. I didn't mean initial ridership would be that high, just the average over time. Operational costs per rider should also be lower with five car trains cutting down on labour costs per rider. I would imagine ridership on all lines would increase with greater system coverage. I don't see any reason why a N-SE line couldn't do as well as the NW-S has for ridership.

[MalcolmTucker]

The main reason we can't count on the money is that we still have to pay the subsidy to get people taking buses onto the train. It would be reduced by more coverage by LRT no question, but there is no reason to believe that at least 50% of riders on the new line wouldn't be arriving by bus, ending up costs the system as a hole more than they contribute.

Fare revenue in that sense is really just an offset - unless you require a new fare for the LRT - which isn't uncommon in many of the worlds great transit cities.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

The main reason we can't count on the money is that we still have to pay the subsidy to get people taking buses onto the train. It would be reduced by more coverage by LRT no question, but there is no reason to believe that at least 50% of riders on the new line wouldn't be arriving by bus, ending up costs the system as a hole more than they contribute.

Fare revenue in that sense is really just an offset - unless you require a new fare for the LRT - which isn't uncommon in many of the worlds great transit cities.

Yeah, I have no idea just how much more efficient the total system would end up. The 3 and 301 might already have small operational profits and reworking the rest of the network to more of a feeder system could go either way.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Koolfire

525 million profit on 5 billion for 30 years is like a 0.2% return per year. I guess the interest would be paid to the company which would make it a 4.2% return. That would be a really hard sell to any investor as there is risks in cost overruns.

Now if the company gets 9% per year then it would be good. But 260 million with 35 million operating expense works out to a 2.3 billion capital expense up front.

It's really insane that if the city could save 260 per year and get 9% then it would only take less then 7 years to get 2.3 billion in capital. But then you get into inflation and the project costs 3 billion etc.

Well, you have to remember the project is actually 3 parts, construction, finance, and operating/consortia management that each make money. You don't know what people will bid until you tender. In general the world has too much capital, is looking for safe havens that aren't already over capitalized and this would be one of them. The model isn't generous, only the rates, and those can be changed.

It really is annoying looking at the costs of projects like these and comparing to traditional provision - either pay as you go, or debt finance. In the end I think it comes down to in the alternate cases if you end up without the piece of infrastructure for ten years, the P3 is likely worth it. Especially when you consider that with inflation the real value you're paying against the project drops all the time while the project still exists!

[srperrycgy]

Finally got to ride on one of these this afternoon:


SD160-8-7 by srp775, on Flickr

[jeffwhit]

I've narrowly missed one at Sunnyside 5 times.

[DizzyEdge]

Is the red decals? it looks more shiny than the busses. (and better)

[mersar]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Is the red decals? it looks more shiny than the busses. (and better)

Paint. They're no longer using decals again. Plus some of the red parts are actually moulded red plastic (on the roofline)

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by mersar

Paint. They're no longer using decals again. Plus some of the red parts are actually moulded red plastic (on the roofline)

Nice, the glossier sheen looks waaaay better.

[You Need A Thneed]

Ticket checking was happening this eve, I had my ticket checked on the way to the hockey game. The peace officers were checking tickets as people came off the train at Franklin as we were waiting for our inbound train to come. Then they got on the train with us and were checking tickets. Now, I realize that checking isn't done a lot during rush hour, but it does seem to happen enough outside of rush hour. I certainly would not be further ahead never buying a ticket and instead paying the fines in my train riding experience.

[Ferreth]

Originally Posted by You Need A Thneed

Ticket checking was happening this eve, I had my ticket checked on the way to the hockey game. The peace officers were checking tickets as people came off the train at Franklin as we were waiting for our inbound train to come. Then they got on the train with us and were checking tickets. Now, I realize that checking isn't done a lot during rush hour, but it does seem to happen enough outside of rush hour. I certainly would not be further ahead never buying a ticket and instead paying the fines in my train riding experience.

I can only think of a couple of times seeing tickets being checked during the rush in the last few years - that was at lesser used stations such as Bridgeland and Barlow Max Bell. But outside of rush hours, I'd agree that you'd need to be a bit lucky to get ahead on paying for tickets vs. paying fines.

[freeweed]

Even if I could "get ahead" by not paying, I'm not an anti-social douchebag living off the coattails of others.

[mersar]

The 2011 service implementation plan has been posted on the CT web site, mainly details how they are using up the 140,000 new service hours in their budget.

Couple things to note: route 100 (new mcknight/airport route) begins in March, more evening/weekend service in industrial parks, weekend peak periods are moving to 10 minute frequency for the CTrain, and more/later service on shuttle routes.

[frinkprof]

Here's the 2011 Spring Service Revisions, effective March 14th, 2011.

Most of the changes were included in the 2011 Service Implementation Plan posted above. Lots of improvements to evening and weekend service for community feeder and some of the routes servicing industrial areas.

Also, it looks like a lot of the times for the various feeder routes terminating at McKnight-Westwinds in the northeast are having their schedules revamped to improve reliability. If you use one of these routes in your commute, you may want to check out the changes.

New routes added are:

Route 100 Airport Express - to and from McKnight Westwinds

Route 445 Skyview Ranch - 25 minute frequency during afternoon and morning peak, to and from McKnight-Westwinds

[You Need A Thneed]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

Here's the 2011 Spring Service Revisions, effective March 14th, 2011.

Most of the changes were included in the 2011 Service Implementation Plan posted above. Lots of improvements to evening and weekend service for community feeder and some of the routes servicing industrial areas.

Also, it looks like a lot of the times for the various feeder routes terminating at McKnight-Westwinds in the northeast are having their schedules revamped to improve reliability. If you use one of these routes in your commute, you may want to check out the changes.

New routes added are:

Route 100 Airport Express - to and from McKnight Westwinds

Route 445 Skyview Ranch - 25 minute frequency during afternoon and morning peak, to and from McKnight-Westwinds

Of note, CT think it will take 24 minutes to get from Skyview ranch to MKWW, and 32 minutes to get from MKWW to the airport.

CT seems to know that 36th Street and CHB are going to be a mess after April 3.

I laugh at those still thinking that the Airport Trail tunnel only saves people 3 minutes.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by You Need A Thneed

I laugh at those still thinking that the Airport Trail tunnel only saves people 3 minutes.

It does - at 2am.

[DarkKeyo]

It feels good to see a lot of improvements all at once; They seem to be increasing communication, and I like that. Although, the closure of downtown last weekend was as much a pain as always.

As a resident of the mid-NW, I'm glad that route 8 is somewhat useful now, although it only forms part of a useful "outer circle route" that would work better if route 430 had the same frequencies.

Anyone been past City Hall to see what work they did over the weekend?

Also of note, they released the 2011 transit route map (more than a year after the previous version) 3 weeks before the schedule changes, and therefore it doesn't have routes 100 and 445 on it. Why not wait 3 weeks and include the fairly major change that route 100 will make?