The US Census Bureau thread

[LMich]

I've become less and less convinced over the years of talk of undercounting, but I'm seeing numbers off by so much in cities like Chicago and Birmingham and St. Louis and Baltimore and even in cities that grew like Houston and Dallas, and I'm beginning to wonder if cities didn't grow as staunch decline as quickly as we thought they did, or if this Census was a particularly unorganized/underfunded one?

Basically, if your city was posting losses, either slight or huge, for estimates over the decade they lost big time. I'm not sure I'm buying that that is the reality, particularly when many of these cities had had populations decline contiuously slowing down over the decades, and then all of a sudden they just accelerate again last decade? Really? Is "black flight" really lagging white flight by that many decades that we'd start seeing net losses increasing after they'd been steady decreasing (and in some cases, reversing)? Hell, they even have St. Louis County posting a slight loss over the decade, which while having grown only modestly for decades was still growing.

[pico44]

Originally Posted by LMich

I've become less and less convinced over the years of talk of undercounting, but I'm seeing numbers off by so much in cities like Chicago and Birmingham and St. Louis and Baltimore and even in cities that grew like Houston and Dallas, and I'm beginning to wonder if cities didn't grow as staunch decline as quickly as we thought they did, or if this Census was a particularly unorganized/underfunded one?

Basically, if your city was posting losses, either slight or huge, for estimates over the decade they lost big time. I'm not sure I'm buying that that is the reality, particularly when many of these cities had had populations decline contiuously slowing down over the decades, and then all of a sudden they just accelerate again last decade? Really? Is "black flight" really lagging white flight by that many decades that we'd start seeing net losses increasing after they'd been steady decreasing (and in some cases, reversing)? Hell, they even have St. Louis County posting a slight loss over the decade, which while having grown only modestly for decades was still growing.

I don't buy the idea that all these cities are undercounted at all. We had the biggest housing bubble in the history of the country that happened almost exclusively on the peripheries of our cities. Of course many cities lost population. Chicago tore down thousands of homes and have been hemorrhaging working class people and families for decades. Of course they lost 200,000 people. All this whining about undercounting is pure bullshit. With all the curruption in Chicago I suspect that it is probably overcounted. Or maybe all you disappointed people from Jersey City, Detroit, Chicago...are right; maybe we are guilty of massive undercounting. Maybe the population of the US is really 400 million.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by LMich

I'm not sure I'm buying that that is the reality, particularly when many of these cities had had populations decline contiuously slowing down over the decades, and then all of a sudden they just accelerate again last decade? Really? Is "black flight" really lagging white flight by that many decades that we'd start seeing net losses increasing after they'd been steady decreasing (and in some cases, reversing)? Hell, they even have St. Louis County posting a slight loss over the decade, which while having grown only modestly for decades was still growing.

I buy it. Actually, it's not far-fetched at all, considering the federal government's push to boost minority homeownership, largely under the same model that it used to boost "mainstream American" homeownership: cheap loans for newly constructed, detached single family housing. If you are a city in the urban Northeast or urban Midwest, almost none of that newly constructed, detaching single family housing took place within your borders.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2004-01-20-fha_x.htm

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20020624_bushplan.htm

http://articles.cnn.com/2002-06-17/polit...ream-down-payment-fund?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS

[photoLith]

Jesus Christ, I thought st Louis population was supposed to have grown. How depressing

[Expat]

Originally Posted by Xing

The cities that lost population have increased population, and growth, in their city centers. I think, to remain positive, that these cities are setting themselves up for growth. I don't expect magic to happen in one decade. What was said earlier about family sizes of those moving in, and of those moving out, is an excellent argument. The negativity some feel, imho, is similar to that of a person who just planted a seed, and was disappointed that no plant emerged the next day. People have to be patient, and continue what has been encouraged.

I agree with you completely. In the older cities with losses, there are at least two different things going on. We must not miss the good news within the bad news. The central cores are in various stages of renewal. It is the seed and the future. At this point, let's not throw the baby out with the water.

[pesto]

I guess LV isn't quite dead yet. Huge growth not only in town, but in Henderson and NLV, which effectively have passed Reno for the top 3 cities in the state.

undercounts: I can't speak for everywhere, but I can speak for Stockton, where there are supposedly empty developments which in fact have 8 Filipinos to a house. Hard to imagine they got counted. (The residents are mostly illegal or have legal issues in California.)

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by tablemtn

Birmingham had a long, absurd, drawn-out, and hugely expensive public works debacle involving a new sewage treatment system and a series of complex financial instruments used to fund it.

Several former city officials are in prison for their role in the affair, but the upshot was that sewage rates exploded for city homeowners.

The whole thing demonstrated a type of horrifying corrupt incompetence on the part of city officials that probably didn't help with population growth.

I thought that was a county-wide (Jefferson) issue.

Anyways... shocking to think that Montgomery is about to surpass Birmingham as Alabama's largest "city".

[fflint]

Originally Posted by pico44

I don't buy the idea that all these cities are undercounted at all. We had the biggest housing bubble in the history of the country that happened almost exclusively on the peripheries of our cities. Of course many cities lost population. Chicago tore down thousands of homes and have been hemorrhaging working class people and families for decades. Of course they lost 200,000 people. All this whining about undercounting is pure bullshit. With all the curruption in Chicago I suspect that it is probably overcounted. Or maybe all you disappointed people from Jersey City, Detroit, Chicago...are right; maybe we are guilty of massive undercounting. Maybe the population of the US is really 400 million.

You've moved beyond a reasonable skepticism when you assert it's "bullshit" to think we're looking at undercounts. You don't know either way. Neither do any of the rest of us.

What we do know is many, many cities successfully sued when undercounted in the 2000 Census. How do you reconcile your assertion with this record of undercounts from 2000?

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by BevoLJ

Detroit got up to 1.8 million in the 50's but that is the highest I think it ever got. I guess Phoenix would be the next to likely join that group? Philly has fallen down to about 1.5 million but they could get back up there.

Philly proper's population has stabilized recently... but I'll bet dollars to doughnuts it never reaches 2M again within its current boundaries. Household sizes are much smaller... and Americans just don't live in such hyper-dense environments as 1950s Philly anymore. It's a built-out city with few opportunities for large-scale development.

A city like Phoenix likely will reach 2M in the not-too-distant future (barring continuing economic catastrophe or hard environmental constraints) because this sprawling incorporated unit has plenty of space to fill with new households. For comparison's sake... today's Philly has 4X the population density as Phoenix.

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by photolitherland

Jesus Christ, I thought st Louis population was supposed to have grown. How depressing

I believed all along that the annual "Census Estimate" challenges were a farce. The Bureau shouldn't indulge these city challenge requests... it merely mucks up the numbers and perceptions of growth/decline. It seemed every challenge came back with a higher number than the original estimate... as if the Bureau were acquiescing to these cities' need for an ego boost. Many of these cities will encounter a rude reality when confronted with Census 2010 numbers that conflict with challenge-distorted estimates of 2009, 2008, 2007, etc.

[Evergrey]

Coverage from the St. Louis paper:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/article_4af01497-bca8-5b63-8cc6-1c724c11dd08.html

Census shows city is 'hollowing out'



ST. LOUIS • The city's population has dropped to a level not seen since the late 19th century, with some neighborhoods in the north losing more than 20 percent of their residents.

In all, the city lost 8 percent of its population from 2000, about 29,000 people.

St. Louis County also saw its population drop, by 1.7 percent, to below 1 million people. Meanwhile, the rest of the Missouri counties in the St. Louis region grew, based on new population numbers released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Illinois numbers released last week showed that seven of the eight counties in the Metro East grew, giving the metropolitan area 4.2 percent growth.

The population loss in both the city and the county came from substantial drops in their white populations. Unlike towns in the Metro East, such as Belleville, the gain of blacks and other minorities in St. Louis County was not enough to offset the loss of whites. St. Louis County lost 10 percent of its white population, or 78,882 people. The black population increased 21 percent, or 39,723.

The city lost both whites and blacks, 8 percent and 12 percent, respectively. The overall population loss was a stunner for city leaders, who had aggressively fought the Census Bureau for the better part of the last decade on annual population estimates. The last estimate showed the city at 356,587, an increase of nearly 8,400 people from the 2000 Census. The 2010 number came in at 319,294, nearly 29,000 less than a decade ago.

...

According to this map... it appears the Greater Downtown area of St. Louis posted population gains... while the rest of the city declined. On a metropolitan scale, the St. Louis region is hollowing out... featuring widespread decline in older inner-ring suburbs and explosive growth on the exurban fringe (a sad trend also seen in Chicagoland and I suspect we'll see in many other "legacy" metros). Despite all this talk about a nascent "back to the city" movement... Americans still overwhelmingly favor living as far as they can possibly get from the urban core while still retaining access to metropolitan job markets.



How long are these people's commutes??? Or has the job base dispersed to the edges as well?



Missouri's balance of power appears to be tilting westward.




....


btw, there are some entertaining/disturbing comments from County executives and suburban mayors in the 2nd half of the article. A classic case study of myopia and delusion in a stagnating hyper-fragmented metropolitan area. The core is withering and the region is just reshuffling the deck chairs... "but my suburban fiefdom is doing just fine!".

[TimCity2000]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

Anyways... shocking to think that Montgomery is about to surpass Birmingham as Alabama's largest "city".

if the trends continue, alabama's "big 4" might all be sitting at 200,000 in 2020. huntsville might even be the largest by then.

[Matthew]

/\ Huntsville could become Alabama's largest city in late 2014 or early 2015! I'm actually excited about Huntsville and surprised it's not larger. As a center of science and technology, it's a good city to represent the state as the largest. Birmingham continues as a doughnut city, following in the path of Atlanta. They should seriously study a rail transit system. Montgomery's growth is no surprise. They've recently added jobs and everyone I talk to who is from there loves the city.

It's also good to see growth in Roanoke, Va., again.

[SpawnOfVulcan]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

I thought that was a county-wide (Jefferson) issue.

Anyways... shocking to think that Montgomery is about to surpass Birmingham as Alabama's largest "city".

Yea, that is a Jefferson County problem, not a Birmingham problem. Sadly though, if this whole thing isn't fixed, it would create financial problems for the entire state considering that about a 5th of Alabama lives in JeffCo.

Really though, the way that the leadership has been working in the city of Birmingham, I'm a lot more optimistic than I was in the past about the city turning around. Larry Langford was a crazy, corrupt man and I'm glad he was thrown into jail. William Bell, however, seems to have a good head on his shoulders and appears to be a great leader. A responsible one too.

It's all gotta start with the core, which has been one of the city's big black eyes for decades. What's going on in downtown has become a HUGE step towards restoring pride in the city, something that is necessary to a rebound.

Alabama Metros (per 2000-2010 Definitions)

1) Birmingham - Hoover 1,128,047
2) Huntsville 417,593
3) Mobile 412,992 (w/ Baldwin County 595,257)
4) Montgomery 374,536
5) Tuscaloosa 216,461
6) Decatur 153,829
7) Florence - Muscle Shoals 147,132
8) Dothan 145,639
9) Auburn - Opelika 140,247
10) Anniston - Oxford 118,572
11) Gadsden 104,430

Alabama CSAs (per 2000-2010 definitions)

1) Birmingham - Hoover - Cullman 1,208,453
2) Mobile - Daphne - Fairhope 595,257
3) Huntsville - Decatur 571,422
4) Montgomery - Alexander City 427,691
5) Dothan - Enterprise - Ozark 245,838

It's worth mentioning that all of the metros and CSAs (per the 2000-2010 definition) grew. Some more than expected (Gadsden, Anniston - Oxford, Florence - Muscle Shoals).

Also worth mentioning is the 13,000 additional people that have moved to the Mobile MSA (just Mobile County) moved there just within the past 2 to 3 years.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Urbanguy

Chicago city, IL: 2,695,598 (-200,418)
Houston city, TX: 2,099,451 (+145,820)
San Antonio city, TX: 1,327,407 (+182,761)
Dallas city, TX: 1,197,816 (+9,236)
Indianapolis city, IN: 829,718 (+37,792)
Austin city, TX: 790,390 (+133,828)
Fort Worth city, TX: 741,206 (+206,512)
El Paso city, TX: 649,121 (+85,459)
Baltimore city, MD: 620,961 (-30,193)
Seattle city, WA: 608,660 (+45,286)
Washington D.C.: 601,723 (+29,664)
Denver city, CO: 600,158 (+45,522)
Portland city, OR: 583,776 (+54,655)
Las Vegas city, NV: 583,756 (+105,322)
Oklahoma City city, OK: 579,999 (+73,867)
Kansas City city, MO: 459,787 (+18,242)
Virginia Beach city, VA: 437,994 (+12,737)
Colorado Springs city, CO: 416,427 (+55,537)
Tulsa city, OK: 391,906 (-1,143)
Honolulu CDP (incl. East Honolulu) 387,170 (+15,513)
Arlington city, TX: 365,438 (+32,469)
New Orleans city, LA: 343,829 (-140,845)
Aurora city, CO: 325,078 (+48,685)
St. Louis city, MO: 319,294 (-28,895)
Corpus Christi city, TX: 305,215 (+27,761)
Newark city, NJ: 277,140 (+3,594)
Plano city, TX: 259,841 (+37,811)
Henderson city, NV: 257,729 (+82,348)
Fort Wayne city, IN: 253,691 (+47,964)
Jersey City city, NJ: 247,597 (+7,542)
Norfolk city, VA: 242,803 (+8,400)
Laredo city, TX: 236,091 (+59,515)
Lubbock city, TX: 229,573 (+30,009)
Baton Rouge city, LA: 229,493 (+1,675)
Garland city, TX: 226,876 (+11,108)
Reno city, NV: 225,221 (+44,741)
Chesapeake city, VA: 222,209 (+23,025)
North Las Vegas city, NV: 216,961 (+101,473) *should this be included with Las Vegas here?
Irving city, TX: 216,290 (+24,675)
Birmingham city, AL: 212,237 (-30,583)
Spokane city, WA: 208,916 (+13,287)
Montgomery city, AL: 205,764 (+4,196)
Richmond city, VA: 204,214 (+6,424)
Des Moines city, IA: 203,433 (+4,751)
Shreveport city, LA: 199,311 (-834)
Tacoma city, WA: 198,397 (+4,841)
Aurora city, IL: 197,899 (+54,909)
Mobile city, AL: 195,111 (-3,804)
Little Rock city, AR: 193,524 (+10,391)
Amarillo city, TX: 190,695 (+17,068)
Salt Lake City city, UT: 186,440 (+4,697)
Newport News city, VA: 180,719 (+569)
Huntsville city, AL: 180,105 (+21,889)
Grand Prairie city, TX: 175,396 (+47,969)
Brownsville city, TX: 175,023 (+35,301)
Jackson city, MS: 173,514 (-10,742)
Vancouver city, WA: 161,791 (+18,231)
Springfield city, MO: 159,498 (+7,918)
Eugene city, OR: 156,185 (+18,292)
Salem city, OR: 154,637 (+17,713)
Sioux Falls city, SD: 153,888 (+29,913)
Rockford city, IL: 152,871 (+2,756)
Pasadena city, TX: 149,043 (+7,369)
Joliet city, IL: 147,433 (+41,212)
Paterson city, NJ: 146,199 (-3,023)
Fort Collins city, CO: 143,986 (+25,334)
Lakewood city, CO: 142,980 (-1,146)
Naperville city, IL: 141,853 (+13,495)
Alexandria city, VA: 139,966 (+11,683)
Mesquite city, TX: 139,824 (+15,301)
Hampton city, VA: 137,436 (-9,001)
McKinney city, TX: 131,117 (+76,748)
McAllen city, TX: 129,877 (+23,463)
West Valley City city, UT: 129,480 (+20,584)
Cedar Rapids city, IA: 126,326 (+5,568)
Elizabeth city, NJ: 124,969 (+4,401)
Bellevue city, WA: 122,363 (+12,794)
Lafayette city, LA: 120,623 (+10,366)
Thornton city, CO: 118,772 (+36,388)
Evansville city, IN: 117,429 (-4,153)
Independence city, MO: 116,830 (+3,542)
Springfield city, IL: 116,250 (+4,796)
Peoria city, IL: 115,007 (+2,071)
Provo city, UT: 112,488 (+7,322)
Norman city, OK: 110,925 (+15,231)
Columbia city, MO: 108,500 (+23,969)
Elgin city, IL: 108,188 (+13,701)
Pueblo city, CO: 106,595 (+4,474)
Arvada city, CO: 106,433 (+4,280)
Westminster city, CO: 106,114 (+5,174)
Gresham city, OR: 105,594 (+15,389)
West Jordan city, UT: 103,712 (+35,376)
Everett city, WA: 103,019 (+11,531)
South Bend city, IN: 101,168 (-6,621)
Centennial city, CO: 100,377 (n/a)

The Texas data can be found as a BIG CSV table at the Texas State Data Center. (California will have a good 40 or more cities beyond the top twenty that will make this list.)

The remaining Texas cities:

Killeen.............127,921 (+41,010)
Waco..............124,805 (+11,079)
Carrollton.........119,097 (+9,521)
Beaumont........118,296 (+4,430)
Abilene............117,063 (+1,133)
Frisco..............116,989 (+83,275)
Denton............113,383 (+32,846)
Midland...........111,147 (+16,151)
Wichita Falls.....104,553 (+356)

(Odessa was at 99,940. So close!)

[Chase Unperson]

Amazing growth by Austin and fort worth. They blew by numerous cities b

[Urbanguy]

Dralcoffin, thanks! I will add those with the next update!

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by urbanactivist

I still can't get over Arlington, TX being "bigger" than New Orleans. It's just not right.

Cities are always rising and falling in America...

For some reason, one of America's oldest cities at the greatest natural port location in the country can be dwarfed by an exurb with absolutely no geographical assets (unless you count the Jerry Dome).

Originally Posted by LMich

I'm not sure I'm buying that that is the reality, particularly when many of these cities had had populations decline contiuously slowing down over the decades, and then all of a sudden they just accelerate again last decade? Really? Is "black flight" really lagging white flight by that many decades that we'd start seeing net losses increasing after they'd been steady decreasing (and in some cases, reversing)?

I think black flight is more of a "pull" than a "push". Obviously inner-city ghettos were/are awful places, but black Americans continued to live there because it offered them the greatest economic opportunities.

Now that alternatives exist - in places like Atlanta or DC - where a black middle class is growing, that's a very attractive alternative.

New Orleans is a slightly different story, but even here, I often hear black New Orleanians talking about how they're trying to "get out" and pursue better opportunities in another city. The Katrina diaspora scattered people all over the country, and lots of them liked their adoptive cities. Now they're encouraging their friends and relatives to move out as well.

I hate to say it, but a declining black population is consistently increasing the percentage of whites in the city, and I think we may even come out of this as a boutique city. The signs are increasingly pointing that way. Unfortunately, with the departure of blacks, New Orleans loses the culture that gave the city many of its hallmarks.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Matthew

/\ Huntsville could become Alabama's largest city in late 2014 or early 2015! I'm actually excited about Huntsville

^ How can anybody be excited about Huntsville, Alabama?

[Matthew]

/\ Huntsville is growing fast through jobs in aerospace, defense and research & technology and attracting a highly educated workforce. It's following the path of Raleigh. As Huntsville grows, it should be interesting to see how this impacts the state and how others view the state. It's growing into a city of great wealth, education and jobs most cities dream of. It may not have a big skyline, but it is exciting to watch its rise and to follow the potential impact it will have on the state and region. It wouldn't surprise me if the city does see one or two new tall building proposals after becoming the largest city in the state. I'm guessing in 10-20 more years, people will be more familiar with Huntsville. Right now, it seems many people aren't aware of its existence. Those who are familiar with it are usually big fans of NASA and space exploration. NASA is one of Huntsville's major employers.