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Originally Posted by lrt's friend
I am getting terribly confused. If building surface rail downtown will only save a couple of hundred million, what is driving the cost of the current project so high? After all, the North-South project included surface rail downtown, two new Rideau River bridges and a Dow's Lake tunnel, more than twice the length of track and cost less than half the cost and did not include a supposedly LRT convertible Transitway. Is Transitway conversion really as cheap as everybody assumes?
Everybody quotes the $735 million cost estimate for the tunnel, but does that actually include track, power supply, signalling, etc.? Are we really comparing apples with apples when we compare the cost of a tunnel with the cost of surface rail?
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I think that is why there was so much distrust about the old N-S LRT pricing – extra cost items kept being revealed.
I don’t believe the $735M tunnel and stations cost figure includes any of the rail or electrical components, it is just the tubes and stations, and assorted equipment to run those (ventilation, pumps, lighting, escalators, etc). I would imagine that the stations would also include ticketing machines, turnstiles, and the like, but I’m not sure on this point. It might be like the articulated bus garage where the building is under one department and the tools under another and therefore under a different budget item. (But the budget for the tools always gets approved since the building is completed but empty. Staff has become pretty good at getting a bare minimum cost item approved and then adding in all the other costs to actually make the original item useful. Oh, that didn’t include wheels, but since we have the rest of the truck, Staff recommends that the City approve the expense of $10,000 to buy wheels for the $32,000 truck that the City just bought for a bargain $30,000. Oh, did you want tires for those new wheels?)
It would be roughly the same cost to build the tunnel for buses first: There would be some extra cost for more mining of passing lanes at the stations and perhaps a small increase for more ventilation; although the ventilation needed to satisfy the fire regulations for the train is probably pretty close to what would be needed for buses. The upgraded ventilation would likely be only a few million dollars more; not a significant increase.
Speaking of ventilation, I really don’t think it is fair to compare the St. Laurent tunnel to what the full DOTT tunnel would be like. The St. Laurent tunnel is very short and thus relies on ceiling mounted fans to keep a minimum air-flow through the tunnel. The fact that the St. Laurent tunnel is so short is its draw-back. In a longer tunnel, there would be a proper positive pressure ventilation system for each of the stations and negative pressure within the tunnel. The fumes should not be flowing to the passengers. Even after the conversion to rail the ventilation system would still be used for the comfort of the passengers in the stations.
As I mentioned above, there would be extra lanes mined out in the station areas but the running lanes between stations would be single lane so a larger diameter bore is not needed. In the future, after conversion, these extra lanes could be used by passing trains or for car storage.
Another change in the tunnel for buses would be a cross-over at each end of the tunnel so that the buses could make use of central platform stations, since that is what will eventually be used for the trains. The cross-overs would be removed during the final conversion to rail.
I am not saying that a bus tunnel would cost the same as the train tunnel, and neither is Haydon. (I think I heard his figure was $810M, but I don’t remember where I heard that and it might not have been from Haydon but some other source.) Nor would it be a process without disruption. There will no doubt need to be a period of Transitway shut-down during final rail implementation and testing, but hopefully that could be done during the summer months. There would be isolated disruptions to sections of the bus Transitway during ‘straightening’ operations, but hopefully these could also be planned for minimum system disruption. This incremental plan will cost more than shutting down the bus Transitway for three years and converting it to rail all at once, but, like the Rapid Bridge Replacement operations that the Province has used to reduce disruption during 417 widening, sometimes the added cost can be justified. In fact, the tunnel boring that Ottawa is planning is being done to minimize surface disruption, and is costing more than a shallow Cut & Cover tunnel.
As for the cost break-down, the last I heard was that Staff was estimating $90M for each of the mined stations and (I think) $70M for the Cut & Cover Campus Station, for a total of ($90M x 3 + $70M =) $340M. That leaves about $400M for the tunnel boring, or about $115M per Kilometre. There is also a $250M cost for the maintenance facility. The remainder of the $2.1B (roughly $1.1B) is to provide the 12.5 Kilometres of rail, electrical supply, re-worked stations, alignment straightening (except around Hurdman where it will actually be worse), public art, disruption mitigation, and LRT vehicles. This, undoubtedly seems high to most people (and it might be, as dado points out), but it is what we have been given and it is based on Staff’s best ‘guess’. Personally, when I see numbers like $15M for a re-facing of the Lees Station, I am amazed, but how many projects have come in significantly under the cost Staff has estimated? And how many have come in over what was forecast?
In the case of a shallow tunnel, with the moving of utilities and additional land which would need to be acquired, it is likely to cost in the neighbourhood of $400M-$500M for the tunnel and stations. If I recall correctly (and I’m sure I’ll be corrected if I am wrong), the Friends of the O-Train suggested a surface option which ran about $350M (but Staff said that it would have cost much more). Of course that option did include rail from LeBreton to Hurdman so you are quite right that the saving would be more like $500M for a surface rail option; thank-you, I stand corrected.