2010 Mayoral Election - Page 20

markbarbera · #**381** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 10:51 AM**

Predicting the next Mayor is difficult to say. Conventional wisdom at the start of the race would say Di Ianni and Bratina will split the vote of discontent, giving Eisenberger the opportunity to slip up the middle. But Fred's support level is way down from the last go. The Spec poll shows the swing vote is away from him leaving him with mainly his core supporters and little room for growth (mind you he has the largest group of core supporters of the three leaders).

It's pretty clear there is palpable dissatisfaction with city hall has performed the past four years, and how that dissatisfied vote spreads itself will be the deciding factor. The question is how much of the swing vote has kept with Bratina since the Spec poll and how much has shifted elsewhere. Bratina held his own in the past week campaign-wise, and neither of the other two have had a breakawy advantage materialize, so not much has happened to make those Nanos poll numbers shift.
It's going to come down to who has the machine to get the vote out. If Bob had not run, this would have been the Di Ianni comeback story. Instead it's going to be an interesting night, and the vote is too close to call. But I am going to go out on a limb and predict Bratina will top the heap. But I am prepared for the possibilty of having to eat crow in 14 hours' time.

padthai · #**382** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 12:29 PM**

I can tell you that Matteo Gentile hasn't exactly been endearing me to him in Ward 2 with the robo-calls I've received from him over the course of this campaign...

I'm on the Do Not Call Registry...how is that allowed?

SteelTown · #**383** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 1:10 PM**

Election calls are exempt from the Do Not Call list.

SteelTown · #**384** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 1:13 PM**

You can see where Di Ianni is really putting all his effort with signs and flyers, West Mountain. Signs even on the Linc.

Nords · #**385** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 1:49 PM**

It was cute to see Mr. Tony waving at cars this morning at Main and Dundurn. Even though I'm voting for McHattie, it's still impossible not to see that man's moustache and wave back!

McHattie for sure in Ward 1, I hope Martinus in Ward 2 (Jelly is fine too), but I think there will be too much vote splitting. Maybe someone like Eric Hess would take advantage of that? I hope it's Tetley in Ward 3 but I can't see Morelli losing. I guarantee this will be his last term though. I'm sure he'll retire after this. I'm happy if Powers and Duvall come back. Pearson is the best sitting councillor we have so I really really hope she wins. Whitehead, Collins and Merulla I'm sure will be safe (all unfortunately). Jackson I like more then most of those guys so I wouldn't lose sleep if he wins again. Lloyd's lets build a bunker around Ancaster to keep poor people out is tiresome, but he'll win for sure and he deserves too actually, as he is at least smart at city wide matters.

I'm not following ward 11, but that's a ward that if a decent candidate ran, then Mitchell would lose. He is out of touch with urban voters. With all the residential growth in Binbrook, north of QEW and south of Rymal in his ward you'd think he'd be vulnerable. But I don't know who is running against him. Clark rubs me the wrong way too. He is way too smug. But I don't know how his competition is.

mattgrande · #**386** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 1:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by padthai

I can tell you that Matteo Gentile hasn't exactly been endearing me to him in Ward 2 with the robo-calls I've received from him over the course of this campaign...

I'm on the Do Not Call Registry...how is that allowed?

I emailed him (and another candidate, don't remember who) to inform them I wouldn't be voting for them because of that.

How hard is it to get out there and talk to people? I've had Matt Jelly, HooJung Jones, and Jason Farr come to my door personally, and volunteers for Marvin Caplan, Martinus Gelensye, and James Novak. If you're going to just leave a message on my machine, don't bother.

Going back a few weeks, was anyone surprised by the lack of candidates at Supercrawl?

padthai · #**387** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 2:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattgrande

Going back a few weeks, was anyone surprised by the lack of candidates at Supercrawl?

Very much so. I only saw Matt Jelly and a booth for Eisenberger. I had heard Martinus was there earlier in the day. With 19 candidates, you'd think they'd all be scrambling to get some exposure there.

Going back a bit further, Di Ianni was the only candidate I saw at the Locke Street Festival.

SteelTown · #**388** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 2:20 PM**

I've had Whitehead at my door three times. Some may not like him but he definitely stands up for his ward, either right or wrong on the issue.

Ward 8 got most of the stimulus money and obviously Whitehead had a lot to do with it. Westmount will have a new rec centre, finally we aren't paying for Ancaster's fire service, Rymal and Stone Church Road west has sidewalks!, Omni roundabout (a beauty!), I like how he's approachable by setting up a booth each month at Westcliffe to meet with people and he fought the good fight over Flamborough's casino money to the rest of the City.

SteelTown · #**389** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 2:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by padthai

Going back a bit further, Di Ianni was the only candidate I saw at the Locke Street Festival.

Eisenberger was definitely at the Locke Street Festival so was Martinus. He's part of the AGH World Film Festival.

mattgrande · #**390** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 3:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by padthai

Very much so. I only saw Matt Jelly and a booth for Eisenberger. I had heard Martinus was there earlier in the day. With 19 candidates, you'd think they'd all be scrambling to get some exposure there.

Going back a bit further, Di Ianni was the only candidate I saw at the Locke Street Festival.

I saw Jason Farr as well. One mayoral candidate and three councillors? At the biggest festival in the Ward? Dismal...

drpgq · #**391** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 3:31 PM**

I voted for Jelly for Ward 2 and have seen support for him online at sites like the Hamilton subreddit, but I have no idea how groups like older people in the North End are going to vote. There's just so many candidates. Personally I like it and see Ward 2 as an endorsement for term limits.

Anders Knudsen · #**392** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 4:56 PM**

drpgq, exactly, I think Jelly and Geleynse will suffer greatly from age and lack of experience in most eyes. There are enough signs for Hess north of Herkimer, where people actually vote that I'll be very surprised if he doesn't get it. Caplan has been a nutjob and Farr comes across as a likable goof.

Anyone else hoping Powers gets tossed? I don't have a clue if there's a chance, but looking through his voting record I note that he's voted for the airport expansion and AEGD, against any changes to area rating, and he's absent all the time. Dundas could benefit from a more progressive voice I think.

oldcoote · #**393** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 5:12 PM**

Ward 2 will be fun to watch.

Less than 6000 total votes in that ward in 2006. Will Jelly and/or Geleynse inspire those that may not have voted in 2006 to do so in 2010? Will less than 1000 votes take this ward?

markbarbera · #**394** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 6:00 PM**

No matter who wins the Mayor's seat and the 15 ward races, the only certainty is that women lose big time in 2010. With few women among the candidates there is a strong chance there will be at best just one female voice on council. And absolutley no visible minorities.

Am I the only one who finds it a little disconcerting that we have basically an exclusively white male council in the making?

SteelTown · #**395** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 6:08 PM**

It'll be equal number of females on council. We had Pearson and McCarthy. New session it's likely Pearson and Partridge.

padthai · #**396** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 6:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by markbarbera

Am I the only one who finds it a little disconcerting that we have basically an exclusively white male council in the making?

Yes! But this seems to be the norm around us. Burlington - 1 female, rest white males. Oakville - 11 of 13 are white males. Niagara Region - 8 females, 22 white males...
Hopefully this will change as we continue to see more a population shift.

I'm even surprised to see Toronto have only 3 white males as the leading candidates given their multicultural reputation. Interesting article in the Globe last week about Toronto being jealous of Calgary's new Muslim mayor...http://bit.ly/cxfym3

oldcoote · #**397** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 6:42 PM**

Women are too smart to go into politics.

emge · #**398** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 6:47 PM**

Of course it's disconcerting not a lot of women are running, but I run off my mouth too much to go into politics.

Then again, it seems to be a prerequisite these days...

SteelTown · #**399** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 7:04 PM**

I'd love to see the day we get a female Mayor. There isn't a shortage of qualified female candidates such as Marie Bountrogianni, Teresa Cascioli, Sheila Copps, etc.

omro · #**400** Posted **Oct 25, 2010, 7:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelTown

It'll be equal number of females on council. We had Pearson and McCarthy. New session it's likely Pearson and Partridge.

You may get a shock and HooJung Jones may get elected in Ward 2