Randell Denley's piece this morning
Wrong time to shut out O’Brien
Seems this election is reduced to being a popularity contest
By Randall Denley, The Ottawa Citizen October 23, 2010 8:26 AM
One of the axioms of politics is that the voters are always right. Maybe, but Ottawa voters at the municipal level have not distinguished themselves recently. In 2006, they enthusiastically endorsed candidate Larry O’Brien even though he hadn’t a minute of experience at City Hall and his
“zero means zero” tax promise was completely unrealistic.
Four years later, voters are set to reject O’Brien, even though his skills and knowledge of the job have increased markedly and despite the fact that he has some major achievements. It’s a strange twist.
During O’Brien’s term of office, council approved and found the money for a much-improved light-rail plan. Council tackled the mess at Lansdowne Park and had the courage to seize the opportunity despite strong criticism. The city finally put money into the new convention centre. Councillors also approved a plan to severely limit the perennial problem of sewage leaking into the Ottawa River.
O’Brien didn’t do all of that by himself, but mayors get the lion’s share of blame for what goes wrong.
O’Brien didn’t do all of that by himself, but mayors get the lion’s share of blame for what goes wrong. They are entitled to the credit for things that go right. O’Brien was also willing to let other councillors lead on key files, particularly Peter Hume, Alex Cullen and Maria McRae.
That record of progress on big issues ought to be enough to pretty much guarantee an incumbent re-election, but recent public opinion polls say that O’Brien hasn’t a hope. Voters aren’t prepared to consider the good things O’Brien has done or what he might do in the future.
The mayor hasn’t helped himself by running a weak campaign. It has lacked momentum and professionalism and his policies have been poorly articulated. O’Brien’s biggest problem isn’t the campaign, though. It’s the fact that voters have turned against him. Some felt betrayed after buying into his tax-freeze promise. Others don’t like his demeanour or his behaviour. Having to face criminal charges in court didn’t help, either. Pick your own reason. Apparently about 80 per cent of voters have.
When people look at their mayor, they want to see a reflection of themselves. When we looked at O’Brien, we didn’t always like what we saw.
Jim Watson is benefiting from the other side of this simple equation. Rationally, Watson’s connection to the unpopular McGuinty government should have been a problem, but it hasn’t been. People like Jim. If they like you, you can get away with a lot.
On the two issues that matter most to voters, O’Brien actually has a sound approach. The light-rail transit plan is not just a concept, as some seem to believe. It has been approved by council and the funding is in place. The financial plan doesn’t threaten the city’s finances, as some opponents claim, and the plan itself is what we need for the long run. Even Jim Watson likes it.
On taxes, people scoff at O’Brien’s latest version of “zero.” Too bad, because he has finally figured out the only way to keep tax numbers down. Freezing departmental budgets is the simplest and best way to limit tax increases. Producing a low number requires a broad, systemic approach, not the nips and tucks that Watson proposes. O’Brien could certainly deliver on his plan to create a tax-freeze budget. Whether the public or the council would really find the consequences palatable is another matter, but his approach is the toughest of any of the major candidates.
O’Brien’s plan to expand the urban boundary defies the popular view of the moment, but he is framing the question the right way. Despite intensification, our suburbs will continue to grow. We need to talk about how and where they grow. Whether it is within today’s urban boundary or not, any suburban growth will occupy more farmland. Where should that growth go?
The key thing to understand about O’Brien is that he is passionate about making this city the kind of exciting, vibrant place that it needs to be to compete for talented people and economic growth. Despite all the turmoil of the last four years, we are moving in the right direction.
Unfortunately for O’Brien and ourselves, we have made this election about the past, not the future. People look to the last election with regret and want to press O’Brien’s famous reset button.
We have been unwilling to grapple with the serious issues, preferring to reduce this election to a simple personality contest, a battle between unloveable Larry and affable Jim. A vote that can be summarized as “I don’t like Larry, so I’ll vote for Jim,” doesn’t serve our city well. We’re voting for a mayor and a vision of the future. We’re not electing a pal-in-chief.
O’Brien’s political and interpersonal skills are still far from perfect, but he’s a leader. That’s what our city needs and as flawed as O’Brien is, he’s the only one on offer.
Contact Randall Denley at
613-596-3756 or by e-mail,
[email protected]
© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen
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