Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[PoscStudent]

This link shows more of a breakdown in the poll, by 🞵🞵🞵, education and income.

In the category of completed univeristy it shows only a 5 point difference between the 3 candidates. I always wonder when I see polls if education makes a difference with the likliness of someone voting. If university educated people are more likely to vote then this could be very interesting and it could take a while before the mayor is officially named.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10036

[MalcolmTucker]

With the amount of advanced voting, it will be a late late night.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

With the amount of advanced voting, it will be a late late night.

If not a couple of days, with several hundred thousand people voting and such a close race a thousand votes makes a big difference. I'd say expect a judicial recount.

[Wooster]

Markusoff had an interesting post about how Mandel won Edmonton in 2004 and the polls leading up to election day:

http://communities.canada.com/calgaryher...10/11/three-to-one-pulling-a-mandel.aspx

So the polls came out thusly:

Sept 23: Noce 24, Smith 22, Mandel 8, undy 44.5
Oct 9: Smith 29, Noce 30, Mandel 20, undy ??
Oct 15 (mandel camp poll): Noce 24, Smith 19, Mandel 17, undy 29
Oct 15 (smith poll): Smith 24, Noce 19, Mandel 15, undy 37
Results, Oct 18: Mandel 41, Smith 33, Noce 25

[Bigtime]

Edit: Deleting this post because it has made everyone sad this morning.

[CorporateWhore]

So Nenshi is going to win, but nobody will see it till it's too late?

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by CorporateWhore

So Nenshi is going to win, but nobody will see it till it's too late?

No no! This time the goal light will go off!

Great, now I'm getting depressed remembering that night. That was going to be my story to tell children and grandchildren in the future, how I was there as the Saddledome exploded into cheers of victory...

Edit: Don't you go over to Calpuck and crush my identical post over there! If anything, my comparing of Nenshi to the grinding '04 Flames should get some more votes headed his way!

[Radley77]

Another poll out by IVRnet conducted on October 9th, of those that responded that they were very likely or somewhat likely to vote:

McIver: 24.1%
Nenshi: 17.3%
Higgins: 33.8%

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/659956--higgins-leaps-into-lead-poll

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

If Nenshi doesn't win this election what do you think the chances are that he would try for an alderman position next time around?

The mayor is an important position, but keep in mind that when it comes to council votes, the mayor is only one vote, same as the alderman. If he were on council as an Alderman he would still have alot of influence.

I have always thought that Nenshi would be virtually guaranteed a seat as alderman for this civic election. He is good at troubleshooting, a strong desire to improve the quality of life in Calgary, and able to champion issues of importance. That he is running such a strong campaign against well established people like Kent Hehr, Bob Hawkesworth, Craig Burrows et al points to that there is a lot of potential for his political future.

The mayor's seat would be hard fought for by all of the candidates. That Nenshi's base is with younger voters and a good track record for retention is a good thing as that demographic ages his grassroots base should continue to build.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Radley77

Another poll out by IVRnet conducted on October 9th, of those that responded that they were very likely or somewhat likely to vote:

McIver: 24.1%
Nenshi: 17.3%
Higgins: 33.8%

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/659956--higgins-leaps-into-lead-poll

While a Saturday poll would likely cause some selection bias due to people being away from their houses at different rates according to their age and income, IVRnets polls for us in the last election were within a couple points. Also, by its nature this would be a 'prompted' poll. Also, the sample would not be demographically corrected like the Ipsos one would have been.

[CorporateWhore]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Great, now I'm getting depressed remembering that night.

That's why you never ever bring up the 2004 playoffs.

As fun as it is to reminisce about the good moments, it inevitably leads to that utterly soul crushing realization that that spontaneous and beautiful rise of a down-and-out hockey club looking to redeem itself with ultimate glory in unison with it's joyous (and 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵!) citizens, was tragically snatched away in such a bitter fashion. Those were once-in-a-lifetime circumstances, and they will never be re-created or experienced in the same light again. We all lost our innocence that year.

And you had to bring it up!

[Bigtime]

Wow, you managed to put into words that totally soul crushing feeling.

Tuesday is the new Monday this week.

[CorporateWhore]

Just walk away and promise to never think about it ever again. Look to the future my friend.

Then again, thinking about the current state of the Flames isn't soul-lifting either, ha.

[freeweed]

The lesson from 2004 is this: underdogs always let you down.

Here's hoping Nenshi has transitioned from "underdog" status.

[Bigtime]

You know what, forget I even brought up 2004. I'm deleting that post!

Go Nenshi!

[freeweed]

Wow, xenophobia is alive and well in Calgary. Just had another person tell me that there's no way they'd vote for Nenshi, because "you just can't trust those Muslim/brown/whatever people". I didn't catch the exact wording as this rapidly devolved into a 1950s-worthy racist rant and I had to walk away before I punched a cow-orker.

[DizzyEdge]

Bob Hawkesworth says he 'can't win the mayor's race'



http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hawkesworth+says+mayor+race/3658422/story.html

Love this quote:


"If he endorses, Higgins would appear to be his pick. Hawkesworth said he entered the race because he disliked McIver's vision, and he's campaigned bitterly against Nenshi.

As for Higgins' priorities, "I have questions. I'm not sure absolutely what those (priorities) are," Hawkesworth said"

I suspect those two points are true for most Calgarians who plan to vote for her.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by freeweed

Wow, xenophobia is alive and well in Calgary. Just had another person tell me that there's no way they'd vote for Nenshi, because "you just can't trust those Muslim/brown/whatever people". I didn't catch the exact wording as this rapidly devolved into a 1950s-worthy racist rant and I had to walk away before I punched a cow-orker.

My wife had the same conversation with one of our neighbours, she openly admitted to not voting for him based on his colour and that he could be a "sleeper cell".

I really hope these people are the 0.1% minority in our city.

[nick.flood]

Hawkesworth concedes!! ....... kind of.

Bob Hawkesworth says he 'can't win the mayor's race'

By Jason Markusoff, Calgary Herald October 12, 2010 10:05 AM

CALGARY - Bob Hawkesworth has conceded that he can't win the mayor's race, but is unsure whether he'll endorse anyone or even stop campaigning.

"Short of a miracle -- and apparently these happen -- I'm not going to be Calgary's next mayor," he said in an interview Tuesday morning.

Polls have repeatedly shown him unable to top four- or three-per-cent support, and far back from Naheed Nenshi, Ric McIver and new frontrunner Barb Higgins.

He said he appreciates his "rock-solid base" but it's "far from a winning majority, so I have to be frank about it and I will."

With six days to the civic election, the Ward 4 veteran said he'll either keep campaigning to stress his priorities or back a candidate his views line up with.

If he endorses, Higgins would appear to be his pick. Hawkesworth said he entered the race because he disliked McIver's vision, and he's campaigned bitterly against Nenshi.

...

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hawkesworth+says+mayor+race/3658422/story.html#ixzz12A8ZZXt0

[Calgary_Guy]

So lets say McIver did in fact win the election.... I'm willing to bet the Airport tunnel is not built, and the SE LRT gets the go ahead. Does anyone else think this could in fact be the case as well? I can only imagine the feeling of clossing Barlow Trail to the airport north of McKnight Blvd. will anger a lot of people in the city.