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  #1421  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2010, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
Another off-the-wall column by Tim Bousquet. It shows his anti-establishment leanings. I guess that he is still licking his wounds because the convention centre appears to be moving forwards.
Yes, he seems to have given up on some of the fallacious arguments he had previously been making against it, and now is opining that he doesn't think lenders will provide financing to Rank. Grasping at straws...
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  #1422  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2010, 2:16 PM
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I wonder if the province is still interested in building new offices at Barrington and George, filling in the north end of the block and retaining the Dennis Building facade?
Interesting point. The land swap with the municipality is done now and they did just announce this week that they're going to sell the Joe Howe Building when they own it outright in, I think, 2013. I would be surprised if they weren't considering their options.

Last edited by spaustin; Oct 8, 2010 at 4:45 PM.
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  #1423  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2010, 5:17 PM
beyeas beyeas is offline
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Interesting point. The land swap with the municipality is done now and they did just announce this week that they're going to sell the Joe Howe Building when they own it outright in, I think, 2013. I would be surprised if they weren't considering their options.
Wonder if there is any chance of them planning on getting space in the Nova Centre as part of the deal?

AllNS said that there might be talked between the province and Ben McRae... interesting that the total floor space in Waterside and the total floor space needed by the province is an exact match. Basically the Waterside could become basically nothing but NS Gov offices.
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  #1424  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 7:16 PM
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Sounding like good news out of council:

Quote:
Centre has its supporters
Most councillors support project, but some reserving judgment
By MICHAEL LIGHTSTONE City Hall Reporter
Sat, Oct 9 - 1:00 PM


There’s strong support on regional council for a new convention centre in downtown Halifax, but not all councillors have made up their minds about the proposed project.

The Chronicle Herald canvassed council’s 23 members plus the mayor Thursday night. Not every councillor replied by mid-afternoon Friday.

Those who did were either in favour of the project or said they’re reserving judgment pending more information about it.

Coun. Steve Adams (Spryfield-Herring Cove) said Friday he’s already decided.

"I’m in," he said in an interview.

"If we’re going to lose money on it, then no," Adams added. "But the business case for the tax (revenue) alone shows that it’s a good deal."

With the information he has now, Coun. Bill Karsten (Portland-East Woodlawn) is another supporter.

"There is a strong business case for a new convention centre," he said in an email.

"I believe that it can be the catalyst to jump start the $6.5 billion in approved development for the downtown and evolve it into being a vibrant, modern and exciting economic capital district."

Coun. Mary Wile (Clayton Park West) also backs the proposed complex.

"The cost is quite high but what isn’t today," she said in an email. "The current Trade Centre has a limited capacity to hold various functions."

Coun. Lorelei Nicoll (Cole Harbour) said she needs details before making a decision.

"The only information I have seen is what has been printed in the media. Therefore, it would be difficult to say where I stand on the issue," she said.

Coun. Peter Lund (Hammonds Plains-St. Margarets) said he’s all for it, "if indeed there is a sound business case."

In an email, he said, "We need incentives in the downtown, and without input of public monies in combination with tax incentives, there will be no growth."

Coun. Steve Streatch (Eastern Shore-Musquodoboit Valley) is firmly behind the proposed development.

"But, as a councillor, it will also come down to the provincial ‘ask’ of our taxpayers here in HRM. After all, it is the government of Nova Scotia’s decision and the lion’s share of the costs must be borne by the province," he said in an email.

Coun. Linda Mosher (Purcells Cove-Armdale) said the planned development will be good for the city, province and Atlantic region.

"From what I’ve seen so far," she said, "this is a no-brainer."

Coun. Darren Fisher (East Dartmouth-The Lakes) is, at this point, a supporter too.

"I would say I’m in favour of the project getting the green light. If and when this does come to council I will base my decision on the information provided."

A mixed-use development is planned for the fenced site of the demolished Halifax Herald Ltd. building on Argyle Street in the downtown core. Provincial officials released some information about the proposal on Wednesday.

The whole project is to cost up to $500 million but taxpayers would only be involved with the convention centre component.

A senior bureaucrat with Nova Scotia’s Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal Department said the cost of building the convention centre is $159 million, which includes $119 million for construction, $21 million for engineering and design and $19 million for interim financing.

The developer would be responsible for any cost overruns.

Provincial government staff have said about $86 million in direct and spinoff benefits for the province are projected over a 10-year period. Benefits include an estimated $40 million in provincial tax revenue in the first decade of operation.

Also, thousands of jobs are to be created during construction and while the planned complex is operating.

The province wants to share the cost of the project with Halifax Regional Municipality and the federal government. The split is still up for negotiation, but city hall would contribute a significant portion if regional council agreed.

Though he’s been a vocal supporter of the proposed complex, Mayor Peter Kelly said Thursday that regional council "needs specific details" before it can give the plan a thumbs up or down.

Municipal staff "will complete their analysis of the data and prepare a presentation and discussion points for council" to review during a regular session at city hall on Oct 19, Kelly said.

The mayor backs the concept of a new convention centre for downtown Halifax.

Supporters of the project say such a project will act as an economic engine for a downtown district in the doldrums. They say the World Trade and Convention Centre is losing large groups of delegates to other cities because the facility is too small to accommodate them.

Opponents question the business case for a new centre and say two towers that are part of its design will block the view from historic Citadel Hill.

"The historic nature of downtown Halifax is a primary economic asset," the Coalition to Save the View says on its website.

"The proposed convention centre towers fly in the face of current best practices in the world’s great historic cities."
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  #1425  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 7:23 PM
worldlyhaligonian worldlyhaligonian is offline
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That's total bullcrap that it flies in the face of best practices... most cities are integrated with old and new, have a real trade centre.
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  #1426  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 7:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Wishblade View Post
Sounding like good news out of council:
Notably not mentioned: Watts and Sloane. I can't imagine either of them getting behind this, even though Sloane said she was on the fence last I heard.
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  #1427  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 7:42 PM
fenwick16 fenwick16 is offline
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One item that the opposition continually overlook is that the convention centre will generate direct revenue - even the outdated WTCC is generating $6 million yearly. I feel that even a conservative estimate of revenue would be $10 million annually for the new centre (based on the huge increase in bookings that the Ottawa convention centre is seeing). This will basically pay the annual mortgage and operational costs for the HRM and province. On top of that direct revenue, the HRM will get increased property tax and the province/federal governments will get increased HST and personal income tax.
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  #1428  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 8:52 PM
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Originally Posted by kph06 View Post
Notably not mentioned: Watts and Sloane. I can't imagine either of them getting behind this, even though Sloane said she was on the fence last I heard.
Both are anti-development in general, and Sloane of course is a member of the Save The View Facebook group, so don't expect anything good out of her. Watts has opposed pretty much everything and is a protege of Howard Epstein, so her vote is already decided.
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  #1429  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
One item that the opposition continually overlook is that the convention centre will generate direct revenue - even the outdated WTCC is generating $6 million yearly. I feel that even a conservative estimate of revenue would be $10 million annually for the new centre (based on the huge increase in bookings that the Ottawa convention centre is seeing). This will basically pay the annual mortgage and operational costs for the HRM and province. On top of that direct revenue, the HRM will get increased property tax and the province/federal governments will get increased HST and personal income tax.
Overlook or Ignore? I find the worst aspect of this fiasco is there is barely any articles that clearly outline the bid and break it down. The general public just get confused by all the different numbers thrown out there and then focus on the boldest headlines, which unfortunately are usually released by the opposition - usually based on conjecture, worst case scenarios, or plain BS.
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  #1430  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by kph06 View Post
Overlook or Ignore? I find the worst aspect of this fiasco is there is barely any articles that clearly outline the bid and break it down. The general public just get confused by all the different numbers thrown out there and then focus on the boldest headlines, which unfortunately are usually released by the opposition - usually based on conjecture, worst case scenarios, or plain BS.
I agree, the opponents peg the taxpayer cost for the project at 357 million with lease payments and the fed portion.

Can't someone in the know (Developer) do a cost breakdown.......?

Expenses:

- yearly lease payments HRM/province
- feds 46 million upfront cash infusion
- all other expenses for HRM/province .....financing/debt servicing etc.

Revenue:

-12 million HRM property tax
- fees...permits etc.
- GST infusion

Projected Revenue:

- $1600 per single convention attendee = old trade centre 2009 amount of attendees x 3
- Provinciial/federal income tax for direct and indrect employees
- hotel revenue
- % uplift in tourism
- % increase in development
- % increase in new business connections
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Last edited by Empire; Oct 10, 2010 at 2:43 AM.
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  #1431  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2010, 11:00 PM
worldlyhaligonian worldlyhaligonian is offline
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Originally Posted by kph06 View Post
Overlook or Ignore? I find the worst aspect of this fiasco is there is barely any articles that clearly outline the bid and break it down. The general public just get confused by all the different numbers thrown out there and then focus on the boldest headlines, which unfortunately are usually released by the opposition - usually based on conjecture, worst case scenarios, or plain BS.
Meh, it doesn't really matter. Do you think any of these opponents or the average person would even understand a pro-forma income (exepenses vs. revenues) statement?

None of the people against this know anything about business and will say anything to scare the average tax payer.

The reality here is that revenues will be generated and its not entirely dependent on the convention space alone. The deal is really good for Nova Scotians and Haligonians because of the federal funds.

Its actually pretty basic, its just the proponets aren't able to provide all of this information before things have been finalized. The opponents are the ones that are being heavy handed here, using misinformation fear tactics to scare the public.

The money is being spent on a revenue generating project. There is clearly an anti-height bias underlying everything the opponents say.

The people who are against this are the same ones that were against UG and everything else taller than "5 or 6 stories". They think they have already killed that development, but I don't think they are going to stall this one into the ground.
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  #1432  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2010, 1:38 AM
Buckey Buckey is offline
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OH I can read I/S and B/S. I do it daily and at one time was paid nicely to do it. The misinformation of the job numbers alone are enough of a red flag at this point. I would love to have the numbers. I am completely against this at this point. If the NS AG looks it over and approves it IM ok with it. A lot of wierd numbers.

I would argue that most of the people bl;indly supporting this would know f all about what you speak.

Meh, it doesn't really matter. Do you think any of these opponents or the average person would even understand a pro-forma income (exepenses vs. revenues) statement?

None of the people against this know anything about business and will say anything to scare the average tax payer.
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  #1433  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2010, 2:21 AM
worldlyhaligonian worldlyhaligonian is offline
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OH I can read I/S and B/S. I do it daily and at one time was paid nicely to do it. The misinformation of the job numbers alone are enough of a red flag at this point. I would love to have the numbers. I am completely against this at this point. If the NS AG looks it over and approves it IM ok with it. A lot of wierd numbers.

I would argue that most of the people bl;indly supporting this would know f all about what you speak.

Meh, it doesn't really matter. Do you think any of these opponents or the average person would even understand a pro-forma income (exepenses vs. revenues) statement?

None of the people against this know anything about business and will say anything to scare the average tax payer.
Every way I calculate it, its a good deal. When compared to the cost of a 40 million 4 pad arena, its a better business case. The structure of the deal is highly beneficial to Halifax and its about time we get a big provincial expenditure where it will really make a difference.

Even if we don't have the exact numbers, the ratios of funding sources all clearly reflect a positive business case. This doesn't even take into account spinoffs of different varieties. The amortization is fairly attractive due to the small amount paid annually. The interest rate will likely be favourable.

It sounds like you are buying into misinformation and are against infrastructure due to unfounded fear of its cost.

I don't know how you can say the jobs that are created by this aren't significant. Also, I don't think we have accurate totals yet, but if its anything close to what has been revealed (i.e. 160 million) we can definitely afford it. We're talking downtown tax rates on this property and density!
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  #1434  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2010, 2:29 AM
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I think that a good comparison is the Ottawa convention centre and the big increase in bookings that they have seen. The Halifax area and Nova Scotia do well in the tourism sector, so the HRM and province are expanding a business that they can succeed at.

Buckey - I don't know where these numbers are coming from that you quoted - could you provide a source? I read that it was 1200 construction jobs.

Quote:
28,000 direct jobs within ten years and 12,000 immediately???????
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  #1435  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2010, 2:29 AM
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The Auditor-General does not offer prospective opinions. Or at least they shouldn't if they want to have a shred of credibility and objectivity left down the road when they might be asked to review something in relation to said project.

For a smart guy, it's funny you don't know such things.
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  #1436  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2010, 4:06 PM
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Quite a nice article from todays paper. I know people on here have bashed Dan Legere for publishing misleading information, but this article seems to sum up the argument quite well in my opinion.


Convention centre angst: clashing views and indecision


Sometimes it seems like this place survives in spite of itself, or perhaps in spite of its leaders.

Case in point: the flap over the new convention centre.

No matter whether you’re for it or against, the pussy-footing by our political leadership has not been helpful. It would be very refreshing if someone would simply take a stand, yea or nay.

A reading of tea leaves sug gests that the provincial govern ment will agree to help finance the project and that the city will tag along, to the tune of $57 million each. It’s expected, but not guaranteed, that Ottawa will chip in another $47 million.

But we don’t know any of that. The NDP government has been remarkably opaque about its position. Infrastructure Minister Bill Estabrooks promises a deci sion in “a few more days, weeks or months."

By late last week, Premier Darrell Dexter was making warm, fuzzy noises about the project, suggesting that his gov ernment’s “level of comfort" with the proposal “continues to grow." That sounds like a yes, too.

Halifax Mayor Peter Kelly has been nowhere to be seen. He relayed a copy of a provincial news release about it on his Twitter feed, but fell far short of taking an actual position. That’s disappointing, because if anyone should have something clear to say about a development that will have a massive impact on downtown Halifax, it’s the may or. But Kelly’s not much for clear stands on public issues.

It’s true that this issue isn’t simple or straightforward. Even proponents of the $500 million private-public development must see there are legitimate questions about whether the investment will turn out to be money well spent. Taxpayers are being asked for $159 million, money that proponents promise will be reco vered over the long term in taxes, wages and economic spinoffs.

The opponents counter that the economic impact studies are too optimistic, that the conven tion centre might not attract new business and taxpayers will be left on the hook.

The problem is, you can’t prove either argument. The pro ponents can’t really prove that “if you build it, they will come," because predicting anything in this economy is all but impos sible. You can make an educated guess. You can develop models that are accurate most of the time in most cities. But you can’t guarantee it.

Equally, the opponents can’t prove that it won’t work. Just because public-private part nerships have not worked well in the past doesn’t mean it won’t work this time. Uncertainty rules.

So the question boils down to attitude. On one side, the opti mistic view of Halifax as a place where people will want to visit, spend money, work and live.

That’s the business view and business people tend to be opti mists. After all, why even be in business if you don’t think you’ll do well and make a profit?

It feels like the opponents have a much more pessimistic view.

They’re saying that business can’t be trusted, Halifax can’t grow coherently and that we should simply cling to what we have now. “If you build it, it will fail" summarizes that argument.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that younger people appear to believe that Halifax can grow into a more dynamic city, where the modern lives in harmony with the tradi tional. That happens in great cities around the world. Fusion Halifax, an organization of young professionals, is a strong proponent of the project.

Maybe it’s a characteristic of advancing years that people conclude the city has grown enough and that new construc tion downtown should be limited to low-rise buildings resembling those already standing in the city’s historic heart. Maybe older citizens just know from experi ence that not every great plan works out.

Generational clash or not, the debate’s been obscured by cant and propaganda. There hasn’t been a single believable survey on the topic and we don’t know the public’s will.

That’s probably what’s hold ing up the decision. The Dexter government probably wants to go ahead, but doesn’t have a clear green light in public opin ion. But it can’t delay forever and if it wants to lead, it has to show leadership.

Dan Leger is director of news con tent for The Chronicle Herald. The views expressed here are his own.

([email protected])
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  #1437  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2010, 5:10 AM
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Just now finished going through all the posts over the weekend - I decided since my Friday off was last week; I'd enjoy a total disconnect from here if at all possible. What happens when I call my relatives? They all want my perspective on the convention centre - typical family. I think Dan's article seems to be pretty balanced. He's taking a down the middle approach. I totally agree with him about the political leadership though - I find it annoying that they won't actually come out and say they are in support or not. Pick one and have the backbone to stand up to the onslaught of critism. I was very annoyed by some of the nasty stuff posted in the CBC forums when these stories came up - but I realized that many of them are against the proposal or lack an understanding of it. So i'm not going to loose sleep over it.

Tim's article last week made me laugh. He reminds me of a reporter out here for the Calgary Sun - Rick Bell. As I like to think of him (and now Tim) - they both like to see their words on a page for all to see. Whether they contribute to the discussion is a whole different story. With both, no matter what happens - it's never right. I think that's part of the reason why Canadians complain so much (that's a joke). Tim does make an interesting point though - it's sad that the downtown business commission isn't even in downtown anymore. But on the opposite side, if I'm not mistaken the Coast offices aren't in downtown either. Tim's article to me, really gave off the impression that the opponents of this project are grasping at straws now. They know the argument about the view is week (the pictures from Rank and on CBC showed nicely how George's island wasn't impeeded and the oil refinery actually got covered up - an improvement in my view). So now; it's a desperate search to find anything. It's like putting gauze in front of a semi truck and saying 'you can't come through' - not going to work.

Dan's article really hits the nail for me in terms of the economic impact. I don't understand the economic part of this - but when they said 12,000 jobs even I went...REALLY? That seems like a really big number and I didn't really think it was possible. But unlike the people on CBC who didn't believe that most people spend about $1,600 at a typical convention, I decided to test the theory. I chose 3 different hotels, for the same 3 nights in November (arriving November 14, leaving the 17th) - a typical 3 night conference. The hotel rates I got back varried from a low of $140/night, to a high of $210/night. With 3 nights and taxes, you could range from around 550 to as much as 750. With airfare from Calgary (assuming it was me that went) I came out to between 1450 to as high as 1700. So that number works...

But what I can't get is the job numbers - so perhaps someone can help me out here. I know the number has been bounced around of between 1,000 and 1,200 construction jobs to put the building up. Are the rest of the jobs those associated with the centre and spin off jobs? It's funny that we find the economic spin offs so far fetched, yet whenever the Airport Authority publishes what it's spin off jobs and economic impact are - no one bats an eye. Odd that eh?

The thing I found interesting - was the herald's poling of council and where they stand. It's good to see that so many are firmly in the yes side. But what struck me about that article was Bill Karsten's quote from his email:
"I believe that it can be the catalyst to jump start the $6.5 billion in approved development for the downtown and evolve it into being a vibrant, modern and exciting economic capital district." I was floored when I read that - is that accurate? I know twisted sisters was going to be pricey, but did HRM really approve that much? If so, I have to say that I am very impressed.

Finally - I'll leave my last comment to be about the wonderful save the everything people. Their two lines at the end were priceless. Flies in the face of best practice eh? Some people obviously haven't been to Europe or even to New York and other old cities. London has tremendous heritage - yet there are tall buildings there and the world didn't explode! Oh well - these are minds that are so narrow in their thinking, they will never change.
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  #1438  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2010, 7:55 AM
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Nova Centre is $500M and the UG towers were originally $150M (back in 2004 or so) - I'm sure they'd be much more today. There are other big long-term projects like King's Wharf (got to be hundreds of millions) and the 3 office towers on George Street plus International Place, Salter, and many others. Still, $6.5B seems like a lot, although these buildings are not going up overnight and some will not be built ever.

I suspect the job number is so high because it counts one year of employment as a "job". In other words, if you have 250 people working on a construction site for 4 years it counts as 1000 jobs created. This is a reasonable way to look at it but shouldn't be confused with permanent full-time positions. They may also consider a single contractor employee coming in to do work a job. I don't believe they mean that 1000 people will be paid for full time work for the duration of the construction.

$1,600 is very easy for me to imagine even over a 3 day period. Keep in mind that these people are also paying for the conventions themselves (some goes to the venue), they're going out to dinner, paying for taxis ($120 return from the airport ), and then they have their flight and hotel.

Tim Bousquet and many others are very very defeatist. He has an article up in The Coast about how Nova Scotia is naturally poor and how people should just give up on trying to attract business. The reality is that the province has pretty much average advantages and can be just as successful as other places. Nova Scotia's biggest disadvantage is that it has too many whiners, not the it has a lack of natural resources (why is Boston so wealthy? Secret gold mines?) or "rugged climate" (Hello? Alberta?) or the other BS in that article.
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  #1439  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2010, 8:51 PM
Buckey Buckey is offline
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Why wait to do a Post Mortem

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Originally Posted by Keith P. View Post
The Auditor-General does not offer prospective opinions. Or at least they shouldn't if they want to have a shred of credibility and objectivity left down the road when they might be asked to review something in relation to said project.

For a smart guy, it's funny you don't know such things.
Id rather dissect the patient now rather that look back many years down the road to find out we didnt have all the information. Jumping in blindly on Hype with our tax dollars is unwise.
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  #1440  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2010, 8:54 PM
Buckey Buckey is offline
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Originally Posted by fenwick16 View Post
I think that a good comparison is the Ottawa convention centre and the big increase in bookings that they have seen. The Halifax area and Nova Scotia do well in the tourism sector, so the HRM and province are expanding a business that they can succeed at.

Buckey - I don't know where these numbers are coming from that you quoted - could you provide a source? I read that it was 1200 construction jobs.
IM quoting the presentation on the WTCC site and the original articles on the feasibility also at the WTCC site. However the media and peopl all over the place were quoting 28,000 jobs and not bothering top mention that was man years.
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