Millennium Line - Broadway Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by cabotp

One thing to remember about Mr Condon is he is not a tranportation expert.

...except that he's got the cachet of being a university professor and he's writing articles and being quoted in a context which makes it seem to the uninitiated that he is a transportation expert.

Broadway can and should be a walkable community. Heck, it's already a walkable community. But that doesn't mean that it's not ALSO a major regional transportation corridor. There's a rapid transit line passing right underneath Broadway and Cambie right now - that certainly hasn't made the area any less pedestrian-friendly. In fact with all of the new development just south of the Cambie bridge there are far more pedestrians milling around than there was just a few years ago.

Is Skytrain more expensive? You betcha. But there's no sense in paying a billion dollars for an at-grade solution that may have 20-25% more speed and capacity than the existing bus service and will be maxed out in a relatively short time. Far better to pay a couple of billion dollars for a solution that's got 2-3 times the speed, frequency and capacity with an expected service life of 50 years or more.

For the life of me I don't see why this isn't obvious to everyone.

[madmigs]

Originally Posted by satishreddy

I too have looked at Condon's numbers. We don't know what assumptions he is making. Here is my simple calclulation

$2.1 billion capital cost
7% annual interest rate
25 year amortization period

Using a mortgage calculator, this means the monthly payment is

14,842,260

If we assume 36,000,000 boardings per year, this means 3,000,000 per month. Assuming 7.5km ride = 4.7 miles, I get 14.1 million (passenger-mile) per month. Hence I compute capital cost at

$14,842,260/14,100,000 (passenger-mile) is about $1.05/passenger-mile. This This compares to $2.34/(passenger-mile) computed by Condon. Of course, he doesn't explain his numbers.

MadMigs: you report in units 1/(passenger-km) and don't include interest in the capital cost, so our numbers are different.

That is true on both points. Also it is highly doubtful that our gov't is paying 7% interest and even 1% lower makes a significant difference.

Either way, Condon's #'s seem highly suspect for real-world conditions. Either that or he assumed that there would only ever be 50,000 boardings a day or some unreasonable short lifetime. Expo has been going for 25 years now, and apart from some capacity issues, is still more or less working just fine.

Even our numbers are somewhat unreasonable, as we are assuming only 100,000 boardings/day for its lifetime, when really that number will keep growing as time goes on.

As for operating cost, translink's 2009 annual report claims an average cost of $2.50 per vehicle-km or roughly $4 per vehicle-mile. Note: that is vehicle-km not passenger-km. So taking my earlier number of 87.5 million vehicle-km, that works out to ~$219 million in 25 year lifetime operating costs or $292,000 per month. Converting that to passenger-miles makes it $0.02 per passenger-miles(using your 14.1 million miles/month).

So with using your $1.05 + $0.02 operating, we have $1.07.

Surprisingly Condon uses 4.6 miles as his average trip cost($12.34/$2.66), so with our numbers that makes an average trip about $5. And you'll notice Condon uses 1.6 miles for the average trolley bus trip, 3.6 miles for the average diesel bus trip, 7.8 miles for the explorer, and 8.7 miles for the hybrid. ~8 miles is the distance between Commercial Drive and UBC. I wonder what the averages are for Metro Vancouver. But I highly doubt the average diesel bus trip is only 3.6 miles.

[madmigs]

Originally Posted by cabotp

Notice also how in the first graph it compares the capital cost of each system.

Then in the paragraph before the 2nd graph he talks about looking at the difference between the operating costs. Yet the graph includes the capital cost as well.

If you look at the difference this would be the operating cost.

Street Car = $0.52
Trolley = $1.08
Skytrain = $0.32
LRT = $0.41
BRT = $0.90
Diesel Bus = $1.31
Prius = $0.32
Explorer = $0.52

Although the problem with the Prius and Explorer is no one knows what kind of travel pattern are we talking about. A Prius would be good in the city where the electric motor can always run. But once you get on the highway its fuel cost would start to rise.

To put that number in perspective, using 14.1 million passenger-miles in a month(calculated a few posts back), this would make Canada Line's monthly operating costs at $4.5 million or $150,000/day.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

...except that he's got the cachet of being a university professor and he's writing articles and being quoted in a context which makes it seem to the uninitiated that he is a transportation expert.

Broadway can and should be a walkable community. Heck, it's already a walkable community. But that doesn't mean that it's not ALSO a major regional transportation corridor. There's a rapid transit line passing right underneath Broadway and Cambie right now - that certainly hasn't made the area any less pedestrian-friendly. In fact with all of the new development just south of the Cambie bridge there are far more pedestrians milling around than there was just a few years ago.

Is Skytrain more expensive? You betcha. But there's no sense in paying a billion dollars for an at-grade solution that may have 20-25% more speed and capacity than the existing bus service and will be maxed out in a relatively short time. Far better to pay a couple of billion dollars for a solution that's got 2-3 times the speed, frequency and capacity with an expected service life of 50 years or more.

For the life of me I don't see why this isn't obvious to everyone.

Some people sadly enough live in a dream world

And I do agree with your first statement. It just goes to show how some people will read something and believe it just because it might have been written by someone who is a professor. Yet they never stop to analyze or question whether what they read is true or not.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by madmigs

Surprisingly Condon uses 4.6 miles as his average trip cost($12.34/$2.66), so with our numbers that makes an average trip about $5. And you'll notice Condon uses 1.6 miles for the average trolley bus trip, 3.6 miles for the average diesel bus trip, 7.8 miles for the explorer, and 8.7 miles for the hybrid. ~8 miles is the distance between Commercial Drive and UBC. I wonder what the averages are for Metro Vancouver. But I highly doubt the average diesel bus trip is only 3.6 miles.

It may very well be 3.6 miles... however, what it forgotten in that equation is that post-SkyTrain, bus trips are designed to be shorter. They are designed to be feeders.

One example: The #16. Say you're up on Renfrew and 25th ave and you're going downtown. You can either jump on the bus and take it down Renfrew along Hastings for a one-seat ride (36 minutes) or take it up to the Skytrain for a one-transfer ride (23 minute). Almost ALL will take the train. Pre-SkyTrain they'd take the one-seat bus into town... 8.5km (5.4 miles), post-SkyTrain it's 1000m (walkable, to be honest).

So, yes, average bus trips may be short, but how long is average TRIP length... a far more accurate way of calculating where people are going to and from.

The #16 is a trolley.

[squeezied]

Below is Vancouver's zoning district plan. It shows considerable upzoning beyond Arbutus until Alma. There might not be alot of highrises or "visible density", but there still is density, similar to how Commercial-Broadway doesn't look too dense but really is.

http://vancouver.ca/commsvcs/currentplanning/coloured_zoning_map.pdf

[punface]

I received the following email from the City of Vancouver today:

RE: TransLink's UBC Line Rapid Transit Study Shortlist of Alternatives


September 28, 2010


Dear Interested Party:

RE: TransLink’s UBC Line Rapid Transit Study Shortlist of Alternatives

The above-noted Administrative Report dated September 28, 2010, will be considered by Vancouver City Council’s Standing Committee on Transportation and Traffic at its meeting on:

DATE: Tuesday, October 5, 2010
TIME: 9:30 am
PLACE: Council Chamber
Third Floor, City Hall

The agenda for the meeting and the relevant report can be viewed at: vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/councilmeetings/meeting_schedule.cfm no later than the Friday preceding the meeting. Hard copies will also be available upon request at that time.

If you wish further information on this matter, please contact Jerry Dobrovolny at 604.873.7331. If you wish to address the Standing Committee, please call me at 604.871.6399, by 1:00 pm on Monday, October 4, 2010. Please note speakers are requested to limit their comments to no longer than five minutes.

For your information, all meetings of Council are webcast and can be viewed at: vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/mayorcouncil/councilmeetings/video.htm. The minutes for this meeting can be viewed at: vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/councilmeetings/meeting_schedule.cfm approximately two days following the meeting. Hard copies of the minutes are available upon request.


Yours truly,
Terri Burke
Meeting Coordinator
tel: 604.871.6399
City Clerks Office e-mail: [email protected]

[jlousa]

The Need for Rapid Transit

The Broadway Corridor is served primarily by the 99 B-line; the busiest bus route in North America with over 50,000 passengers per day and the 9 which carries an additional 30,000 passengers per day. When all the bus routes serving the Broadway corridor are included, there is well over 100,000 daily passengers travelling the corridor. This high ridership has placed significant pressure on the transit system and improvements have not kept pace. Service is currently nearing capacity and buses are full. During the morning rush, approximately 2,000 passengers are passed up at the Broadway-Commercial station and travel times throughout the day are unpredictable. Early analysis on the Evergreen Line project indicates that there will be a major increase in passenger volumes through this station in 2014, that require significant station improvements to accommodate the transfers. Without an extension to Central Broadway the number of passengers being passed up at this location will be further exacerbated.

Passenger volumes are expected to grow and the regional bottleneck at Broadway-Commercial will further be exacerbated when the Evergreen Line comes into service.

Based on existing zoning and policies, population and employment in the city portion of the corridor are expected to grow by 30% to over 230,000 by 2041.

The 2004 TransLink Trip diary survey indicates that 24 hour transit mode share for Central Broadway is in the range of 20%. In order to meet the Provincial target for Metro Vancouver of 22% transit mode share by 2031 this will require large population and employment centres like Central Broadway to have a major increase in transit ridership. It is anticipated that Central Broadway would need to achieve a 44% transit mode share by 2031, something that is not possible with the existing transit system. A high capacity, regionally connected, efficient system connecting Central Broadway and an extension to UBC will be required to meet these objectives.

Lots of additional details
http://vancouver.ca/ctyclerk/cclerk/20101005/documents/ttra1.pdf

[punface]

Two quotes from the above that I found interesting:

1) The recommendation:

RECOMMENDATION
THAT Council support TransLink’s recommended Rapid Transit Alternative Shortlist be
brought forward for additional evaluation and analysis and further public consultation
as part of the UBC Line Rapid Transit Study (the study). Noting that the shortlist
includes options that would meet existing and projected demand for Central Broadway
as well as provide alternatives for serving UBC.

2) Further confirmation that the regional growth strategy announced earlier this month includes both Broadway *and* Surrey as Priority #2 (and not just Surrey as suggested by most media.)

The draft RGS (Sept. 2010) proposes that there should be two priorities for the staging of
rapid transit expansion within the region, as follows:
• Priority 1: the Evergreen Line connecting Coquitlam’s urban centre to the Lougheed
urban centre; and,
• Priority 2: connecting Surrey Metro Centre to other Urban Centres south of the
Fraser; and, connecting the central Broadway area in Vancouver to the
existing rapid transit network serving the eastern and southern parts of the
region.

[Zassk]

What the media siezed upon is that the Priority #2 mentions Central Broadway, but specifically excludes UBC.

[Hot Rod]

just do it right the first time, haven't we learned our lesson?

[roleypolinde]

If focusing on central broadway means it actually gets built in the next ten (ha!) years, I'm all for it. Removing all the commuters and hospital traffic from the 99 would be a boon. All that route would be is for Kits/Point Grey and Students transfering from the M-line. They could keep the frequency with half the buses!

It also achieves connecting the C-line and the M-line together. Given how many people get off the 99 at Cambie this has got to be a huge trip generator for the Canada Line and connects the truely massive commercial district on Broadway. I bet you everyone knows at least someone who works on that Avenue =D

[SpongeG]

thats what i've thought they should do too

i'd rather see it done before the evergreen line - use the e-green line money to get the m line extnded as least as far as granville or arbutus

[Zassk]

It's scary how close M-line comes to C-line without touching it... 2 km or so... surely it couldn't cost too much to make the link even with an expensive tunnel. Imagine the relief that it would bring to Commercial/Broadway, a) by moving the bus connections further west and b) giving downtown commuters the choice of avoiding Expo line. It must be cheaper to build 2km of M-line and buy a few Rotem trains than to upgrade all of Expo line for 100m trains.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by Zassk

It's scary how close M-line comes to C-line without touching it... 2 km or so... surely it couldn't cost too much to make the link even with an expensive tunnel. Imagine the relief that it would bring to Commercial/Broadway, a) by moving the bus connections further west and b) giving downtown commuters the choice of avoiding Expo line. It must be cheaper to build 2km of M-line and buy a few Rotem trains than to upgrade all of Expo line for 100m trains.

It is actually closer to 3Km.

And while I would love to see the M-Line extended to at least Cambie just to cover that small gap.

I also realize that people in the Tri-Cities region have waited for their Evergreen line. And people complain that Vancouver always gets everything. So with that in mind I'll glad wait a few more years for the M-Line to be extended.

[nname]

They should be marketed as a same line:

Evergreen Line connecting the Tri-Cities with Canada Line, Airport, and Downtown Vancouver

Doesn't it sound nice?

[amor de cosmos]

not sure if this is the right thread for this...

Campbell was speaking to municipal leaders at the Union of B.C. Municipalities convention on Friday when he said his government wants to build on the Olympic momentum.

"It's time to get started doing a Skytrain to Langley City, which has planned itself to provide the opportunities for the future that are required to make sure transit works. It's time to get ready to build a rapid bus from Langley to Chilliwack. It's time to build rapid transit to UBC," said Campbell.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/10/01/bc-campbell-ubcm.html

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by nname

They should be marketed as a same line:

Evergreen Line connecting the Tri-Cities with Canada Line, Airport, and Downtown Vancouver

Doesn't it sound nice?

This has been an idea kicking around in my head for a long time, why don't they add 200 million more to the price tag, and build the missing link from VCC-Clark to the C-Line.

I don't know why, but saying that you are building an entirely new mass transit line (the Evergreen Line) along with extending the M-Line west to Broadway for a mere 1.6 billion (less than the entire Canada Line) would sound so much better to the uniformed public than to say you are spending 1.4 billion just on connecting the tri-cities.

Then they could say with the 1.6 billion they are adding TWO important links to our transit system, creating two new major hubs (Lougheed and M/C line hub), and building a new storage yard. Seems like a far better political pill to swallow, and then you are pleasing residents in far more areas than just the tri-cities.

Oh, and they province should fund the gap, as we were made to think originally when they announced their long forgotten "15 billion dollar transit plan."

[jsbertram]

Originally Posted by amor de cosmos

not sure if this is the right thread for this...

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/10/01/bc-campbell-ubcm.html

Yada [study UBC skytrain]
Yada [more transit]
Yada [study Langley Skytrain]

(repeat next year)

Get on with it!

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by jsbertram

Yada [study UBC skytrain]
Yada [more transit]
Yada [study Langley Skytrain]

(repeat next year)

Get on with it!

Until I see a fricking shovel in the ground. It is all bull 🞵🞵🞵🞵 and worth nothing.

And thanks for briefing the story for me. I know don't have to read it and from what you post. I have a very good idea of what it is about.