Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by magnetite

When it comes to elections, I'm never sure who to vote for. I wouldn't want to just vote because I have to (picking anyone without making an informed decision). Sometimes I'm afraid I'll make the wrong choice. Last time I voted was in 2001 I think.

If it makes you feel any better, you have just about zero odds of your vote being the deciding factor in a "bad" outcome. I've never heard of any major election in Canada being decided by literally one vote.

[Jack Doe]

Originally Posted by magnetite

When it comes to elections, I'm never sure who to vote for. I wouldn't want to just vote because I have to (picking anyone without making an informed decision). Sometimes I'm afraid I'll make the wrong choice. Last time I voted was in 2001 I think.

Why not vote? Sure you could be wrong, but who's to say you aren't right? 50-50. I'll let you in on a little secret. Nobody loses by one vote. Your piddling little vote isn't going to make the difference. You might as well vote your conscience. As far as I'm concerned voting gives you the right to complain. If you want to influence the vote of others it's far more effective to donate money or time.

My proposal to increase voter turnout: Make elections revenue neutral. Those who vote receive a receipt which they attach to their income tax forms. Those who don't vote have to pay for the election in the form of a special tax. Who gives a s**t what they think, they don't vote.

OTOH this will encourage alot of uninformed people to vote just to save money. OTOOH it might encourage them to take an interest in what's going on around them and contribute to their community. Worth a try, IMHO.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Ferreth

FWIW, I'm noticing less signs along Ogden Rd., east of the Bow River than normal. Perhaps the candidates have not gotten there yet. I'm noticing more billboard ads for Mayor in the industrial SE. Seems to be more money for those floating around with all the candidates this time I guess.

Last time it was hard to get ad space with the boom and all - the worst part was you could only buy points, not locations, the ad company got to choose locations. So you end up with a bunch of billboards in definitely 'B' locations when you buy enough points to cover good areas as well. This time around I'd bet there are a lot more stale boards to go around, making it all easier.

I still think the best bang for the buck are the square poster ads right next to the doors on the LRT - even a minor campaign can saturate those with little cash.

[Jack Doe]

Originally Posted by freeweed

If it makes you feel any better, you have just about zero odds of your vote being the deciding factor in a "bad" outcome. I've never heard of any major election in Canada being decided by literally one vote.

You beat my response by a couple of minutes. You're absolutly right. AFAIK, the only election in Canada that was decided by one vote was in the BC provincial riding of Atlin (extreme NW of the province) in 1979. Still didn't make a difference as the Socreds won that election 31-26.

Generally, if the vote totals are within ten or less, there is a judicial recount. The most likely scenario is that they have another vote. You can always find at least ten people who voted in the wrong riding. In the 1984 federal election I voted in two different ridings (I hope the statute of limitations has passed on that little crime). Had the results been anywhere close that could've used that as evidence to rerun the election.

[magnetite]

All I'm interested in for a mayoral candidate is someone who's doing transportation and most seem to want to help our transit system.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by freeweed

If it makes you feel any better, you have just about zero odds of your vote being the deciding factor in a "bad" outcome. I've never heard of any major election in Canada being decided by literally one vote.

While not really a major election last year in Paradise, Newfoundland and Labrador, which is a town of about 15,000, the incumbent mayor who is a former provincial cabinet minister tied with a 19 year old university student. Then they drew a name out of a reycling bin and the incumbent won.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

While not really a major election last year in Paradise, Newfoundland and Labrador, which is a town of about 15,000, the incumbent mayor who is a former provincial cabinet minister tied with a 19 year old university student. Then they drew a name out of a reycling bin and the incumbent won.

Wow. That's major enough in my books. I'll re-state my story from now on. Thanks for sharing.

[freeweed]

I have to say, Nenshi might just be picking up a LOT of steam in this city. People that I would never have expected to even know about him, let alone vote for him, are saying he's their preferred candidate.

Maybe I'm not paying close attention but I originally saw this shaping up as McIver = right-wing, fiscally conservative voters and Nenshi = left-wing, progressive voters. Which is generally how these things play out these days. But I just had one of the most die-hard conservative types I know (this guy actually still defends GWB simply because he's "conservative") tell me that he's voting for Nenshi.

If this kind of person can be swayed, I can see a real upset happening.

[bigcanuck]

Anyone going to the forum at BMO Centre that can provide highlights?

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by bigcanuck

Anyone going to the forum at BMO Centre that can provide highlights?

Your best best is to follow the #yycvote hashtag on Twitter. I know that DJ Kelly is there and will be live tweeting the event, it is just starting right now.

[nick.flood]

djkelly McIver: "I'm not applying to run a tv station. I'm applying for a job that I have experience at." #yycvote

djkelly Nenshi gets first applause of the forum by saying he hasn't spent 9 years being angry and doing nothing. #yycvote

[fusili]

Originally Posted by freeweed

I have to say, Nenshi might just be picking up a LOT of steam in this city. People that I would never have expected to even know about him, let alone vote for him, are saying he's their preferred candidate.

The incredible amount of media attention he is getting doesn't hurt. Even the sun is putting him in most articles about the election.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by freeweed

I have to say, Nenshi might just be picking up a LOT of steam in this city. People that I would never have expected to even know about him, let alone vote for him, are saying he's their preferred candidate.

Maybe I'm not paying close attention but I originally saw this shaping up as McIver = right-wing, fiscally conservative voters and Nenshi = left-wing, progressive voters. Which is generally how these things play out these days. But I just had one of the most die-hard conservative types I know (this guy actually still defends GWB simply because he's "conservative") tell me that he's voting for Nenshi.

If this kind of person can be swayed, I can see a real upset happening.

Totally. Nenshi appeals to people from all political stripes because he doesn't frame issues in a partisan way. He frames them in terms of 'what's the best solution to this problem' and presents well thought out and detailed ideas.

The fact that he broke from the big pack of pretenders in the last poll was critical, even if it was just 8%. Just look at the front page of the online Herald right now. Headline reads: "Mayoral frontrunners take aim at one another at Calgary forum" and right there is a picture of Nenshi alongside Higgins and McIver.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Mayora...y+forum/3592437/story.html#ixzz10rn2avi0

Once the frontrunners have been defined, this is how the media covers things and the others tend to get ignored. This was absolutely critical for Nenshi. Now, even people who had never heard of Nenshi will take notice and learn about him. More often than not, once they read his stuff they have very positive impressions. Adding to that is the fact that message boards of all kinds (like this one, calgarypuck, beyond), twitter, facebook as well as the news media comments sections are usually flooded with positive Nenshi supporters and comments and that begins to be quite persuasive.

I'd expect quite a bump up in the next major poll, which will only feed the perception that he is the candidate with all the momentum. He's still got a hill to climb, but now it's getting interesting.

[Radley77]

^^ On the same theme, from the Calgary Sun today: Analysts Predict Three-Horse Race. It has been coined.

[Jack Doe]

Originally Posted by magnetite

All I'm interested in for a mayoral candidate is someone who's doing transportation and most seem to want to help our transit system.

I hope you realize putting people on transit reduces road congestion.

[Radley77]

I notice even Ric McIver is starting to look like very anti-free market. His latest parking plan calls for pricing based on "what is good for Calgarians", and elimination of the park'n'ride fee which he blames for a decline in ridership (it hasn't; I've checked the APTA reports).

I'd like to see more parking downtown as well, but would like to know more about what he plans to do about the externalized costs of road infrastructure in comparison to other modes of transportation.

http://www.ricmciver.ca/parking-policies/

[Koolfire]

Originally Posted by Radley77

elimination of the park'n'ride fee which he blames for a decline in ridership (it hasn't; I've checked the APTA reports).

http://www.ricmciver.ca/parking-policies/

Hmm, maybe he's looking at how packed the lots are and not ridership. If the ridership is the same and the lots are not packed maybe we shouldn't get rid of the $3 fee.

[jeffwhit]

I wonder if McIver's going to try anything big to try to regain some momentum, he's just been sort of hanging on for the last week. I hope it's Craig Chandler "nuclear bomb;" really curious to see what that guy pulls out of his enormous ass.

[MalcolmTucker]

I wouldn't be surprised if he announced he would initiate a P3 to build the SE LRT including the Centre St subway as a P3, Canada Line build, operate, partially finance style. It would certainly be a big rabbit. Perhaps add to that reversible HOT lanes added to the Deerfoot as additional lanes financed privately.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by fusili

The incredible amount of media attention he is getting doesn't hurt. Even the sun is putting him in most articles about the election.

Yeah, he definitely plays well to the camera. I've actually been familiar with him for many years now, he's often been used as a "political expert" or whatever you call it in various news stories. Global had a minor fetish with him, getting his comments on damn near every civic issue at one point. When I heard he was running for mayor he was instantly the most recognizable (and well-spoken) candidate in my mind. I cannot stand CTV (sorry, old farts don't appeal to me) so I honestly had no idea who Higgins was until the rumours started about her running.

McIver is starting to get desperate sounding. I suspect he's in a bit over his head, or as someone else mentioned, something is about to come out (mind you, I think Chandler is a psychotic nutbag). McIver being attacked for his actual record at City Hall is perfectly valid and is in no way mudslinging in my books. His retort? "I'm not trying to run a TV station here". Very juvenile and really turning me off.

Who knows, voters are fickle. But 2 weeks ago I would have predicted something like McIver 60%, Higgins 30%, Nenshi 10%, or thereabouts. As of today, if things go the way they have been, I wouldn't be surprised to see McIver and Nenshi split the top fairly equally, with Higgins trailing a fair bit below. I just don't see people honestly voting for her in droves.

And this is going to sound extremely pretentious, but Nenshi is reminding me very very much of a mini-Obama. Coming out of seeming nowhere, and suddenly attracting support from all sorts of unexpected angles. And advocating a whole lot of change. I don't want to get into a discussion of post-election Obama, but the lead up to his victory has definite parallels with Nenshi so far. Right now I'd say Nenshi is a few days away from Obama's early primary victories, where pundits really had to re-think their predictions.

I'm far from a political expert. In fact I still don't really know which way to vote and probably never will. Civic politics just bores me to tears. But I do pay close attention to the mood of the populace and I haven't seen a mayoral campaign quite like this in a long, long time. Then again, maybe I'm just full of shit here.