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Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby
Most of the tunnel money comes from unallocated MSI, while the police budget is funded through direct grants from the feds and province, and property taxes. $20 million in interest or thereabouts would have to come out of the tax supported budget over the next likely ten years as the MSI is future revenue and we need to spend now, but that is pretty small on an annualized basis. We don't live in a zero sum game.
The police force's budget has been growing faster than inflation + growth for a while now. To do that forever is by definition unsustainable. Holding the police budget to the same constraints of other departments in average years helps to start with.
Higgins gives a good speech, but she seems to be speaking out of both sides of her mouth on lots of issues. Her mayoral style of choice from the begging has been aspirational leadership and support, but that doesn't mean anything. Everything I see points to her being a 1 out of 15 Mayor, not a first amongst equals.
Does she have at least one signature policy point that she wants to do? A reason why she wants to become Mayor? I know there is over a month left but come on. The only interesting policy she seems to have is allowing residents to live in light industrial zones.
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I get that it's not a zero sum game. I wonder however how it stacks up against other transportation opportunities and acknowledge time is of the essence with respect to the tunnel construction. Proponent Nenshi's own figures state the value as $4 million annually, and at a tunnel cost of $150 million is only a yield of 2.6%. Even a riskless GoC bond yield is 3.5% and would offer a better yield. Leveraging other provincial and national monies to bring the yield up to 8%... seems like a better strategy and would become a more attractive investment opportunity (cap rate exceeds long term bond yield) from a city perspective.
I think at this point, for new entrants it's important to have a major signature policy to help them develop a base. Higgins plan to place financial responsibility first is something that will appeal on a broad level, but is unlikely to attract a super-engaged base. Her campaign meme is based on "trustworthy" vs. Nenshi's "better ideas", will also attract a slightly different personalities. Nenshi will likely take the majority of the vote along young idealists (e.g.: university students), particularly with his better communication to generation y via the internet, and his roots as student union president and professor. Even if Nenshi has 100% breakthrough in terms of public knowledge about him, I think he will also need to expand his focus beyond the geographic and demographic bases he has been focusing on.
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