Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[nick.flood]

Originally Posted by Radley77

Considering that candidates don't have to officially file nomination papers until September 20th (11 days away) and the election is on October 18th (39 days away), are there any candidates that are running for mayor that may change to running for alderman?

Any candidates that will drop out of the mayoral race entirely?

I wonder if Naheed could run for a NE ward alderman if he doesn't think he can get the votes needed for mayor? It wouldn't be hard to change his campaign pitch... ward 10 - Andre Chabot? Or maybe even Joe Connelly's old ward 6?

In order for Nenshi to win at this point, he would have to get 100% of the undecided vote, plus steal away votes from other candidates.

I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

[MalcolmTucker]

I wouldn't say never. Polls are a snap shot, and in my experience even cheap robo polls are surprisingly accurate.

Plus, Higgins' support is likely a mile wide, an inch deep, every Higgins' voter McIver knocks free is a potential for the field to take. Also, most of the undecided 'I am sure I will vote' people are likely non-voters. A poll that sub sampled out people that say they voted last time would likely be more accurate.

But that doesn't change the topline numbers at all, since the sample size in either case is still 'significant'.

In 2007 the undecided actually grew during the length of the campaign, but didn't have a credible 'home' to come to. Most stayed at home in the end. I don't think that will happen this time to as large an extent, but I still don't think we will see turnout over 50%.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Please bear in mind that among the randomly selected respondents something like 67% said that they would vote- which is nonsense. There, as Brian and I have discussed, is an important bias in surveys like this as people don't want to admit that they won't vote. We can expect a turnout, if this is a typical Calgary election we can expect an absolute maximum turnout of, oh, 40%. MAX.

It's all about mobilizing your support.

[fusili]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Please bear in mind that among the randomly selected respondents something like 67% said that they would vote- which is nonsense. There, as Brian and I have discussed, is an important bias in surveys like this as people don't want to admit that they won't vote. We can expect a turnout, if this is a typical Calgary election we can expect an absolute maximum turnout of, oh, 40%. MAX.

It's all about mobilizing your support.

Exactly. I think the biggest problem with well-known candidates like McIver and Higgins is that their support is rather shallow, although wide spread. Although many people will say they support these candidates, the chances of them actually voting is smaller. Candidates like Nenshi on the other hand, have narrower, but more dedicated support. Nenshi is seeming to attract the super-engaged, which can be a good thing, because they really will come out and vote.

[MalcolmTucker]

Hyper engaged are really good at convincing others to vote their way as well, the best example of that was the 2006 election with the Christmas swing. Hopefully Nenshi will get the thanksgiving bump.

[Radley77]

Some of these videos further highlight where Barb Higgins stands and what her priorities are:

Barb Higgins Issue #1 - Financial Responsibility
• Video Link
*Separate must haves, and nice to haves (transportation infrastructure)
*Audits as per institute of internal auditors
*Audit committee should be a better mix (not 5 aldermen and 2 financial experts)

Barb Higgins Issue #2 - Public Safety
• Video Link
*Drug deals occurring in the street on broad daylight, increase number of beat cops

Barb Higgins Issue #3 - Improve City Hall
• Video Link
*If making presentation to council, make a service available so that presenters are notified via technology to more effectively use people's time
*Online voting record

Barb Higgins Issue #4 - Transportation and Infrastructure
• Video Link
*"Breather in some areas, other areas are needing relief"
*System to make it easier for people to park cars, and take public transit

Barb Higgins Issue #5 - Planning and Development
• Video Link
*Plan-It sets a new framework, and is the sum of 18,000 people that took part
*Work with business to bring Plan-It to life

Barb Higgins Issue #6 - Health and Lifestyle
• Video Link
*Extend recycling to condos, and start towards industrial waste

Barb Higgins Issue #7 - Arts, Culture and Sports
• Video Link
*Paying for a soccer ball, costs less than paying for justice system
*Creative cities are dynamic cities, make city a good home for arts and culture

[Riise]

Originally Posted by Radley77

*Paying for a soccer ball, costs less than paying for justice system

I must admit, I really like that phrase.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Riise

I must admit, I really like that phrase.

I think it is important that she thinks of arts, culture and sports as a valuable tool to improve public safety. Her work as co-chair of a non-profit organization, the United Way, and her insight gained from working with those most at risk, also speaks to why she thinks of arts, culture and sports in this way. More specifically, she has said she supports, "zoning for artists who want to live in industrial areas,- and support for programs that keep kids off the street."

This may colour her experience differently from Nenshi's experience working as chair of the Epcor Centre for Performing Arts and lead to different priorities of how one thinks of arts and culture. I think given Naheed's background, his preference may be to support centres for excellence, rather than programs and places for discovery as Higgins has indicated.

Based on council's 100% approval of the Cantos National Music Centre, I think that both Higgins and Nenshi would vote for approval on this issue if they were given the opportunity, although the rationale for doing so would be slightly different.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Please bear in mind that among the randomly selected respondents something like 67% said that they would vote- which is nonsense. There, as Brian and I have discussed, is an important bias in surveys like this as people don't want to admit that they won't vote. We can expect a turnout, if this is a typical Calgary election we can expect an absolute maximum turnout of, oh, 40%. MAX.

It's all about mobilizing your support.

Exactly what it's all about. That's one thing Nenshi has going for him, is the people who follow him will get out to vote, whereas many of the people supporting McIver or Higgins aren't as likely. they select those two in th4e poll because those are the two they're familiar with.

[Wooster]

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=95163

new mayoral poll on calgarypuck for those interested. The third one. Interesting trends.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Exactly what it's all about. That's one thing Nenshi has going for him, is the people who follow him will get out to vote, whereas many of the people supporting McIver or Higgins aren't as likely. they select those two in th4e poll because those are the two they're familiar with.

Or that Higgins support goes from a mile wide and an inch deep to a mile wide and a mile deep in part due to explaining her platfrom, reaching out to communities, and her name recognition. Not that this is scientific in any way (I am a "fan" of all three (McIver, Nenshi and Higgins) so I can keep informed).

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/622474--writing-s-on-the-facebook-wall



Nenshi can keep on expanding his base exponentially, growth of Nenshi supporters is dependent on current supporter recruitment, whereas Higgins has an opportunity to grow hyperbolically simply by tapping into her shallow but large potential base. Nenshi's launch of "buildthetunnel.ca" places specific importance on geographic needs. It's possible to have a fervent base, but localized in terms of geographics and demographics. The good news is it is clear he is still gaining momentum, so has not saturated any region. Higgins platform places fiscal responsibility first, and the separation of needs and wants during the budget process is a message that has a wider scope than the one Nenshi is currently concentrating on. To date, Higgins campaign lags Nenshi's announcement and she has also been slow in releasing a more detailed platform.

I hope that Nenshi is a part of council in some form as each of the 15 votes on council is important. I do not think that McIver would make a good mayor, so would prefer either Nenshi or Higgins. I am concerned that neither vote will be politically viable if they both end up officially running against each other. A midnight phone call and a concession on September 19th may be an option for increasing both candidates political viability.

As a side note: polls may not necessarily be accurate, but if you have enough of them, and use them appropriately, you can pull out good information. Predictions markets like Intrade where people place money have generally been good systems for measuring probabilities of future events, but rely on decent trading volumes and liquidity.

[mr.steevo]

Hi Radley,

For the colour blind in the group... Can you tell me who the top three lines are in the graph?

I can't tell.

s.

[nick.flood]

Current Facebook Page Fans:
Ric McIver: 2040
Naheed Nenshi: 2019
Barb Higgins: 774
Kent Hehr: 726

In the graph posted by Radley, Higgins is the 3 segment line, but has passed Hehr since the graph was made.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Wooster

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=95163

new mayoral poll on calgarypuck for those interested. The third one. Interesting trends.

It could show that people who are more likely to follow hockey (men) are more likely not to vote for Barb Higgins (woman). Calgary Construction Forum is also predominantly men.

One could ask why there is a gap between these internet forums (who are predominantly men) and telephone polls. Is some of the response to Nenshi also due to more advanced forms for communicating (tweeting, podcasts) with the internet generation?

Also, the previous polls performed indicates there was already a group-think consensus established prior to Higgins annnouncing her candidacy. Do new polls have new value when a consensus has already been reached between a group of peers? I am thinking about disasters like subprime and BP oil spill... Sometimes consensus does not equal best practices, it simply means more consensus.

[MalcolmTucker]

^ nah, men are much more likely to vote for women than women are (well, not much more likely, but women have a distinct preference for male candidates while men are neutral, or at least they have in recent elections (haven't read an analysis of the Australian election yet, so shall see if it is fading))

[Radley77]

Agreed about your point Sir H., gender bias wouldn't even come close to explaining that large of a spread between telephone polls and an online forum poll... Also, I think that if I remember right that during the Obama\Clinton primaries that it was females that were a part of the component of what helped Obama win.
_____________________________________________________________
I am concerned about a number of Nenshi's policies including lack of support for Calgary Police. The current staffing levels of police have barely managed to prevent open drug dealing in broad daylight. Also new funding has helped reduce crimes like in park'n'ride lots (I personally had my Jeep stolen from a Park'n'Ride lot a few years ago, and was used as a drug den, as well have a lot of lots of other stories from friends that have parked at the lots and had windows busted and belongings stolen). It's important to recognize that the cost of cleaning up drug dealing leverages a lot of other resources due to a reduction in overall crime levels that happen associated with decreased drug use. I agree with Higgins prioritization of police services, as well it is a big component of the budget, so it is important that this branch is adequately managed and budgeted for, not an afterthought.

Nenshi also has not mentioned how he intends to deal with the new budget, which is already a 6% forecast tax increase in one year, plus another 6% due to the $60 million revenue shortfall, and he is also planning to spend another $150 million budget allotment on the tunnel, plus get rid of the park'n'ride fee. Something needs to be cut and he is not saying what, and a tax increase of +10% a year is also not a politically viable solution... If SE LRT is to be built, Calgary needs a politician that won't overpromise on other budget issues.

Barb Higgins platform on the other hand just haven't given me a reason to object to her candidacy. She simply hasn't promised anything that I don't think she can reasonably deliver. I support Plan-It and therefore is a big reason why I support Ms. Higgins candidacy.

[bob1954]

I thought Nenshi supported "Plan it"! Who doesn't?

[RicoLance21]

Fellow forumers..I am officially a Nenshi supporter

[SubwayRev]

Originally Posted by Radley77

_____________________________________________________________
I am concerned about a number of Nenshi's policies including lack of support for Calgary Police. The current staffing levels of police have barely managed to prevent open drug dealing in broad daylight. Also new funding has helped reduce crimes like in park'n'ride lots (I personally had my Jeep stolen from a Park'n'Ride lot a few years ago, and was used as a drug den, as well have a lot of lots of other stories from friends that have parked at the lots and had windows busted and belongings stolen). It's important to recognize that the cost of cleaning up drug dealing leverages a lot of other resources due to a reduction in overall crime levels that happen associated with decreased drug use. I agree with Higgins prioritization of police services, as well it is a big component of the budget, so it is important that this branch is adequately managed and budgeted for, not an afterthought.

Why the big push for increased police spending, when crime is at its lowest level in forty years? I don't understand this. Almost all crime in Alberta is down, including violent crime, drug crimes and property crime. But to hear some government people talking, it sounds like Canada is turning into Detroit.

[DizzyEdge]

I'm curious who is supporting those candidates out side of the big 3 (McIver/Higgins/Nenshi) and more importantly what is it that has attracted you to them?