Millennium Line - Evergreen Extension | Completed

[GeeCee]

Evergreen Line: Where will last $400m come from?

Feds, Victoria ante up, but mayors worry about TransLink's portion

Show us the money.

That was the reaction of Port Moody Mayor Joe Trasolini to Finance Minister Colin Hansen's proclamation in Tuesday's budget speech that the long-awaited Evergreen Rapid Transit Line would be built starting next year.

"We expect construction of the Evergreen Line to start in 2011, creating about 8,000 construction jobs and further adding to our quality of life," said Hansen in the speech.

The much-delayed Evergreen line linking Vancouver, Burnaby, Coquitlam and Port Moody was supposed to be built in the fall of 2010.

"I've heard so many dates, frankly, that dates don't mean much," said Trasolini, who is also vice-chairman of the council of Metro Vancouver mayors on Transportation.

But Trasolini and the other mayors wonder where TransLink is going to get its $400-million portion of the funding for the Evergreen Line.

"I have no concern with the commitment of the provincial government of their third of the capital funding and I have no concern with the other third of over $400 million from the federal government," said Trasolini.

"Those two figures are committed and they're on the table and I trust them."

"What we have uncommitted is the TransLink portion of the $400 million," he said. "I have not seen or been told or shown how TransLink is going to come up with that money."

And that worries Trasolini. "Well, clearly, you cannot go ahead with a project when one-third of the funds are not committed," he said.

TransLink spokesman Ken Hardie shares both Hansen's optimism and Trasolini's concerns.

"I mean, it's great news," said Hardie of Hansen's proclamation. "Everybody wants the Evergreen Line to be built. We simply have to find a way to pay our share of it and we're looking at our options."

But Hardie admitted TransLink does not know how it's going to raise the money.

"That's the part we don't know yet," he said.

Coquitlam Mayor Richard Stewart is firmly optimistic that the Evergreen Line will be built next year and that TransLink will provide its portion of the funding.

"The line will be built," said Stewart.

"I suspect that TransLink will borrow the money as it has borrowed the money for other projects."

Stewart said the provincial government must step up to the plate to ensure TransLink has its portion of the funding.

"We need the province to come to the table with an operating structure," said Stewart.

"And it's probably going to be the kinds of carbon-tax or gasoline-tax sorts of elements so that transit systems across the province can fundamentally operate."

Stewart said Coquitlam Town Centre is designed for the Evergreen Line and is just waiting for its arrival.

"Our city centre in Coquitlam is a transit-oriented city centre. The missing part is the transit. "

http://www.theprovince.com/Evergreen+Line+Where+will+last+400m+come+from/2635601/story.html

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

2014? The next election is 2013... I guess they want to have made enough progress that people forget the delays that happened... but before the opening, when ridership stats get tabulated ( likely to be nowhere near as impressive as the Canada line on opening day ).

Evergreen will be well on the way, but cars rolling over the new PMB will be the big election story I'd imagine. Set to happen at the end of 2012.

[mr.x]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

2014? The next election is 2013... I guess they want to have made enough progress that people forget the delays that happened... but before the opening, when ridership stats get tabulated ( likely to be nowhere near as impressive as the Canada line on opening day ).

The Evergreen Line would be a success in its first year of operations if it can attain 40,000 riders per day....it's a very 11-km short line with 5 or 6 new stations, there's no way it'll elapse the Canada Line.

[Zassk]

I hope the tri-cities absolutely explode with population growth over the next 20 years, because otherwise, this will have been a very expensive way to move 40,000 people/day.

Would we tolerate a $1.4B pricetag to move 40,000/day across 11 km in Surrey? I'm skeptical.

[officedweller]

I think it should be considered part of the Millennium Line (as originally envisaged) - so its ridership should be part of the M-Line's total, not separated out onto its own.

[Metro-One]

I agree with Officedweller.

The tri-cities are a perfect location for us to expand our region's population, simply because the majority of the area sits on bedrock (good for earthquakes) and that there is little ALR in the area, unlik south of the river, which needs to be preserved.

[cabotp]

The plan was always to increase the density of the Tri-Cities. But it was also dependant on skytrain getting out there.

In fact I'd love to see the area start to rival downtown Vancouver. In terms of residential towers. In other words once the line is out there. We need to be seeing tower after tower sprouting up and fast. Although this all depends on what the market is like at that time.

[nname]

Originally Posted by mr.x

The Evergreen Line would be a success in its first year of operations if it can attain 40,000 riders per day....it's a very 11-km short line with 5 or 6 new stations, there's no way it'll elapse the Canada Line.

I would say the ridership would be at least in the 60k range. Want to bet?

[satishreddy]

Originally Posted by nname

I would say the ridership would be at least in the 60k range. Want to bet?

I'll bet!

The Evergreen line is about 11km with about 6 stops. 60,000 boardings in the first year means on average 10,000 boardings per stop. There is no where on the entire skytrain system where there are 6 stops in a row with more than 10,0000 boardings per station per day, not even downtown Vancouver.

Where are all the people going to come from? Coquitlam has a population of 120K and Port Moody has a population of 30K.

I am using data from 2007.

http://www.paulhillsdon.com/?p=550

It includes both numbers of people getting on and off. Divide the numbers by 2 for an approximate number of boardings. The only stations > 10,000 are: Waterfront, Burrard, Granville, Main, Broadway, Joyce, Metrotown, Surrey Central, Lougheed, Commercial.

I did analysis of these numbers and found that the average number of boardings per station in Vancouver is around 9500. For Burnaby, New West and Surrey the average is less than 6000 per station.

Also, just because Skytrain is built doesn't mean development will come and riders will materialize. Look at the Millenium line and the figures in the website. That line was developed 8 years ago and the boarding numbers are pathetic at most stations. Even lowly Nanaimo and 29th Ave in Vancouver, which some people in this forum — on because there is little transit oriented development, beat out most stations, including Gilmore where there are some towers and Brentwood where there are towers and a mall.

As I have stated before, it is my belief the Evergreen line will have relatively low ridership because it goes through an area of low density. It is my belief that the initial ridership on the Evergreen line will be similar to that in Burnaby, New West and Surrey - around 6000 per station - which means about 36000.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by satishreddy

I'll bet!

The Evergreen line is about 11km with about 6 stops. 60,000 boardings in the first year means on average 10,000 boardings per stop. There is no where on the entire skytrain system where there are 6 stops in a row with more than 10,0000 boardings per station per day, not even downtown Vancouver.

Where are all the people going to come from? Coquitlam has a population of 120K and Port Moody has a population of 30K.

I am using data from 2007.

http://www.paulhillsdon.com/?p=550

It includes both numbers of people getting on and off. Divide the numbers by 2 for an approximate number of boardings. The only stations > 10,000 are: Waterfront, Burrard, Granville, Main, Broadway, Joyce, Metrotown, Surrey Central, Lougheed, Commercial.

I did analysis of these numbers and found that the average number of boardings per station in Vancouver is around 9500. For Burnaby, New West and Surrey the average is less than 6000 per station.

Also, just because Skytrain is built doesn't mean development will come and riders will materialize. Look at the Millenium line and the figures in the website. That line was developed 8 years ago and the boarding numbers are pathetic at most stations. Even lowly Nanaimo and 29th Ave in Vancouver, which some people in this forum — on because there is little transit oriented development, beat out most stations, including Gilmore where there are some towers and Brentwood where there are towers and a mall.

As I have stated before, it is my belief the Evergreen line will have relatively low ridership because it goes through an area of low density. It is my belief that the initial ridership on the Evergreen line will be similar to that in Burnaby, New West and Surrey - around 6000 per station - which means about 36000.

I do feel you are right, except for the fact that most of the people will load up at Coquitlam and a few more at Port Moody. Otherwise the rest of the stations will not be that busy.

[racc]

Originally Posted by Zassk

I hope the tri-cities absolutely explode with population growth over the next 20 years, because otherwise, this will have been a very expensive way to move 40,000 people/day.

Would we tolerate a $1.4B pricetag to move 40,000/day across 11 km in Surrey? I'm skeptical.

Well, people seemed to tolerate a $800 million pricetag to move 20,000/day from Maple Ridge to Langley (Golden Ears Bridge) and $800 million to move 12,000 per day (Sea to Sky).

All major transportation projects are expensive these days, but transit does seem to be a much better deal than the highway projects. As well, the capacity of the transit projects will be much greater than the highway projects. For example, the three lane GEB has a capacity of around 6,000 vehicles per hour per direction while the Evergreen Line will have a capacity of around 25,000 passengers per hour. Given that the average people per vehicle on roads is around 1.3, that is over 3 times the capacity for less than twice the price.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by cabotp

The plan was always to increase the density of the Tri-Cities. But it was also dependant on skytrain getting out there.

The WCE has been out there for many years. When the Skytrain comes, they will be the most transit connected area in Metro Vancouver, per capita. Time for the cities to "nut up or shut up" regarding density. I'm looking at Trasolini, if he's even around in 2014.

[GeeCee]

The tri-cities have tons of room to densify. And the WCE doesn't count as rapid transit - not by a long shot. It's only helpful if you work 9-5 M-F in the downtown core. On top of that, it costs a ton and if you board at Port Moody station you won't even get a seat!

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The WCE has been out there for many years. When the Skytrain comes, they will be the most transit connected area in Metro Vancouver, per capita. Time for the cities to "nut up or shut up" regarding density. I'm looking at Trasolini, if he's even around in 2014.

Although in defense of the Tri-cities area. And I don't live out there. Even though they do have the WCE. It really is only worth while for people who work downtown on the typical 9-5 job. So anyone who doesn't work like that ends up either taking the bus or driving.

[nname]

Originally Posted by satishreddy

I'll bet!

The Evergreen line is about 11km with about 6 stops. 60,000 boardings in the first year means on average 10,000 boardings per stop. There is no where on the entire skytrain system where there are 6 stops in a row with more than 10,0000 boardings per station per day, not even downtown Vancouver.

Where are all the people going to come from? Coquitlam has a population of 120K and Port Moody has a population of 30K.

I am using data from 2007.

http://www.paulhillsdon.com/?p=550

It includes both numbers of people getting on and off. Divide the numbers by 2 for an approximate number of boardings. The only stations > 10,000 are: Waterfront, Burrard, Granville, Main, Broadway, Joyce, Metrotown, Surrey Central, Lougheed, Commercial.

I did analysis of these numbers and found that the average number of boardings per station in Vancouver is around 9500. For Burnaby, New West and Surrey the average is less than 6000 per station.

Also, just because Skytrain is built doesn't mean development will come and riders will materialize. Look at the Millenium line and the figures in the website. That line was developed 8 years ago and the boarding numbers are pathetic at most stations. Even lowly Nanaimo and 29th Ave in Vancouver, which some people in this forum — on because there is little transit oriented development, beat out most stations, including Gilmore where there are some towers and Brentwood where there are towers and a mall.

As I have stated before, it is my belief the Evergreen line will have relatively low ridership because it goes through an area of low density. It is my belief that the initial ridership on the Evergreen line will be similar to that in Burnaby, New West and Surrey - around 6000 per station - which means about 36000.

Remember, if a rider make a round trip from, say Coquitlam Centre to Metrotown, then the station access will go up by 2 in both stations. Normally, you can say there is 1 boarding in each station; however, in this case, that rider wouldn't ride the train if there is no Evergreen Line. So in this case, both rides would be count as the Evergreen Line ridership. This is how they done when they open the Millennium Line (ie. the 15,000 or so riders that stayed on the train through Columbia) and Canada Line (only boarding datas are collected, not linked trip).

Regarding to population, the line would also serve the eastern suburb as all bus routes would now terminated at Coquitlam station (just think of Bridgeport). So the line would serve:
Anmore 2,200
Belcarra 700
Coquitlam 124,000
Maple Ridge 75,000
Pitt Meadows 18,000
Port Coquitlam 57,000
Port Moody 33,000

That gives a total population of 310,000, plus you can add some from Mission, Abbotsford, and part of Burnaby. Assume each rider ride twice per day, this gives a mode share of slightly less than 10% of the population, compared to 24% on Expo and Millennium Line (excluding Surrey).

Comparing to population density, as of 2006, ALL stations on the proposed Evergreen Line route have higher population density compared to all but 4 stations on the Millennium Line (Commerical, Renfrew, Brentwood, and Lougheed). And except for Commercial and Lougheed, the maximum difference is less than 10%. This does not include the majority of development on the Ioco and Coquitlam Town Centre area, which only started at around 2007/8.

And also, I always assume that 8 stations would be built on the line (Lincoln and West Port Moody).. without those two, yeah, 60k might be a bit stretching.

This is what I've predicted to each station:
Douglas - 5,000
Lincoln - 8,000
Coquitlam - 22,000
Ioco - 8,000
Port Moody - 6,000
Queens - 3,000
Burquitlam - 8,000
Lougheed - 0 (since I included them in the 7 stations above)

[satishreddy]

Originally Posted by nname

This is what I've predicted to each station:
Douglas - 5,000
Lincoln - 8,000
Coquitlam - 22,000
Ioco - 8,000
Port Moody - 6,000
Queens - 3,000
Burquitlam - 8,000
Lougheed - 0 (since I included them in the 7 stations above)

Am I understanding your figures correctly?

So you are saying, 22,000 people are going to board the train at Coquitlam? No offense, but if that's the case, I think you are crazy. That is roughly the same as Broadway (Expo Line) and Metrotown, the 2 busiest stations in the system. Exactly where are the 22,000 people going to come from? I think your numbers for the other stations are extremely high. I think that 11,000 boardings at Coquitlam is on the high side as well.

[nname]

Originally Posted by satishreddy

Am I understanding your figures correctly?

So you are saying, 22,000 people are going to board the train at Coquitlam? No offense, but if that's the case, I think you are crazy. That is roughly the same as Broadway (Expo Line) and Metrotown, the 2 busiest stations in the system. Exactly where are the 22,000 people going to come from? I think your numbers for the other stations are extremely high. I think that 11,000 boardings at Coquitlam is on the high side as well.

No, what I do is:
- Count 1 when the trip is between Coquitlam station and one of the 7 Evergreen Line station
- Count 2 when the trip goes to everywhere else (includes Lougheed).

So that means a boarding of slightly higher than 11,000.

For Coquitlam station:
- 3000 transfer from WCE
- 2000 who normally would take WCE, now take SkyTrain instead
- 8000 transfers from 701/791
- 4000 transfers from Port Coquitlam and NE Coquitlam routes (160, C38, etc.)
- 1000 transfers from Southern Coquitlam routes (177, 151, 152, etc.)
- 3000 park and ride and drop-offs
- 1000 pedestrians

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Evergreen will be well on the way, but cars rolling over the new PMB will be the big election story I'd imagine. Set to happen at the end of 2012.

Well, with the past election, Canada Line was going to open early, just after the election. Probably be pretty much the same for the next election. Trains will be in testing so people can see them and think "oh boy, them libs get things done" but not finished just in case something got screwed up. That way people can't ride it and think to themselves in the election booth "oh nuts, them libs screwed the pooch on this one".

[BCPhil]

I think if you want to see high ridership on the Evergreen line you need to have a few more stations near the end of the line. Not only do you want it to be a way for people from Coquitlam and Port Moody to get to the rest of the region, you want it to move people around the city itself.

I think you need a station much closer to the mall and to the condos near there to make it work. People won't hop on a train at Ioco to go to the mall if they have a 20 minute walk ahead of them to get from the station to the closest store. People will just keep on driving. Without at least a station added near Lincoln, Evergreen is nothing more than expensive, all day WCE service.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by racc

Well, people seemed to tolerate a $800 million pricetag to move 20,000/day from Maple Ridge to Langley (Golden Ears Bridge) and $800 million to move 12,000 per day (Sea to Sky).

All major transportation projects are expensive these days, but transit does seem to be a much better deal than the highway projects. As well, the capacity of the transit projects will be much greater than the highway projects. For example, the three lane GEB has a capacity of around 6,000 vehicles per hour per direction while the Evergreen Line will have a capacity of around 25,000 passengers per hour. Given that the average people per vehicle on roads is around 1.3, that is over 3 times the capacity for less than twice the price.

A persons time driving a truck is generally worth more then a students with a bus pass.

Joking aside this is a bit more complicated as the GEB saves the people using it more then 30min each, while the Evergreen line would save its users much less time. Also like I said the GEB users are more valuable then the Evergreen line users, a $50,000 truck with $100,000 + of product, or that lawyer in his hummer give a greater net benefit to society when they save time, compared to a middle class body on its way to work, a student, a senior citizen, or any other type of person that makes up most of transits ridership.(by the way nothing wrong with middle class workers, most of us are one).

Just saying theres a lot more involved.

By the way I fully support the evergreen line, I hope they build it soon as that sector has tremendous growth potential and expanding the roads is not really possible.

Also there needs to be a Lincoln station, its a no brainer as it would be very convenient to allot of people and the extra station would not impact travel times for 95% of the riders as the last station at Douglas College would not have many boardings, compared to Coquitlam center and maybe even Lincoln. I think it makes sense to have closely spaced stations at the end of a line as it makes that part of the line closer to more people, and more conveniet with limited impact in travel times for most users. Its the middle of the line that handles the most through passengers that you dont want too many stations as the people they would serve would pale in comparison to the impact on overall travel times for all the passengers just passing through.