I asked similar questions about capacity on the Translink forum before they shut them down. This is the reply I got from Colleen Sondermann, at TransLink.
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Hey BCPhil -- So I've got some answers to your questions from one of the technical staff at InTransitBC, the company contracted to design, build, partially finance, operate and maintain the Canada Line for a 35-year period -- yes, I'm sure you know this : )
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BCPhil wrote:
I wonder what the actual max capacity of the Canada line is. The main problem I see developing will be a result of the single track used near Richmond center at the end of the line.
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At a 3.75 minute headway, you're looking at 6,000 people per hour, per direction. If the headway was reduced to 2 minutes, you're looking at just over 10,000 people per hour, per direction. The ultimate capacity on the Bridgeport to Waterfront section is 15,000 people per hour per direction. With every second train going to Richmond this means the capacity of that section would be 7,500 people per hour per direction. Note though that 'ultimate capacity' is referring to three-car trains.
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BCPhil wrote:
What's the maximum frequency of trains you can get in and out of Richmond Center due to the single track and no runoff.
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It's estimated that the current single track configuration would permit a headway of 3.0 to 3.5 minute headway. Ultimately the track can be doubled which would permit 2.0 minute or slightly less headway. A complicating factor is the mixing of trains on the Bridgeport to Waterfront section.
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BCPhil wrote:
How many trains an hour maximum can you get out of the single track?
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Approximately 20 trains an our in each direction at a 3 minute headway.
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There are some interesting things said about ultimate capacity is achieved using 3 car trains, and they can squeeze 3 minute headways out of the single track if needed.
I think if you look at the numbers for an entire day, yes C-Line can handle it. The problem is that I don't think at current Headways it will meet demand out of the Richmond Branch during peak hours. Bridgeport -> North I bet will be OK, but 7,500 per hour out of Richmond during peak sounds rather low.
It also sounds like they have a "plan" to double the track through Richmond Center station if it's needed to extend the system further. I don't really see how, but I guess it could be done if they tear down that Bank next to Richmond Center Station that's right next to the Guideway, or I guess they can put the new track on the West side of No 3 Road and have the East Station be North bound and West Station be South Bound.
I hope they do have it planned so they can double the track, because I would bet that within 10 years people in Richmond will want it extended past Richmond Center. I have a feeling as people there get used to it they are going to love it and are going to be disappointed it takes so long to get TO the C-line from other places in Richmond due to traffic.