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Originally Posted by Dado
I saw these numbers earlier and shook my head in complete disbelief at the Lincoln Fields numbers. They make no sense whatsoever. Currently, there are 3500+ passengers travelling inbound in the morning peak hour between Pinecrest and Queensway Station. So, already there are more passengers travelling along here than they are projecting to transfer at Lincoln Fields in 2031. Something is simply not adding up here. We would have to be losing ridership big time for this projection to be true. That, or I wonder if there isn't some idea floating in the background to keep running express buses from Kanata to downtown Ottawa on the Parkway.
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As I said, I was a bit taken aback by the estimates as well.
I would be really surprised if they kept the express buses. While I fully expect that express riders will be upset at losing their no-transfer service, they carry less political weight than downtown business owners. Also, the express buses would probably get bogged down in or just west of the downtown core.
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Anything above 3000 pphpd is more than good enough for full LRT, even across greenspace. If Ottawa were Calgary, they'd be looking at LRT extensions to Orleans and Kanata already. The N-S LRT was - and still is - justified on less than two thirds of this, nor does Carling hit 3000 and we're going to put LRT there as well. What there isn't justification for are trans-Greenbelt transitway projects (like the Southwest Transitway a few years ago) where bus lanes can provide the interim capacity. We should not be building any more radial transitways unless there's no chance they'll exceed 3000 pphpd or so in the next 20 odd years.
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The 3000 pphpd threshold is based on what? Where is the analysis showing that this is the right threshold from a cost-benefit perspective?
What would be the peak and, more importantly, the off-peak frequencies on these outside the Greenbelt extensions?
Carling would be much better served with a BRT service like the B-Lines in Vancouver. It could be done much more quickly and cheaply than with a $250M LRT, and cover a greater portion of Carling, instead of just the O-Train corridor to Lincoln Fields. I find it strange that a city with a supposed BRT mentality would push a costly project like that.
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Your logic escapes me. If this line of thought applies to extending to Bayshore, then it applies equally to extending to Baseline because what I heard one of the officials say is that they would park half the trains at Lincoln Fields (for people from Kanata) and send the rest to Baseline.
So what you're going to have at LF is a mess: Kanatans will be alternately heading for fullish trains from Baseline or empty trains just coming out of the train parking area, so I'm not too sure how having access to fullish trains actually constitutes an advantage. Another possibility though is that a third platform area - serving a stub track - would be built next to the bus terminal so Kanatans can head for a waiting empty train instead of heading to the regular Transitway platform. But if this is the case - and it would avoid a mess on the Transitway platform and delays to patrons already on the train from Baseline - then Kanatans are no better off than if they were able to get on a train at Bayshore. Indeed, they are worse off since they've had to suffer an extra few kilometres on a bus.
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I see what you are saying. But, if there are significant problems, they may end up running all of the trains to Baseline, which is not that far away from Lincoln Fields in any case.
The extra few kilometres on a bus would not be an issue, especially since it would be on a Transitway.
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What Bayshore gets us (who live inside the Greenbelt) is LRT access to the biggest shopping centre in the west end and it gets us LRT access to the retail and office space along the Queensway near Pinecrest, all without one of those extra transfers that you're usually so concerned about. It can also be done without blowing away two dozen houses.
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Yes, I had indeed considered this. At a personal level, an extension to Bayshore could benefit me, although not as much as more frequent, direct BRT service to Bayshore. However, for the people living east of Lincoln Fields, the Rideau Centre (which has many of the same stores as Bayshore and the Market right next door) would be as close if not closer time wise (remember all trains would go to the Rideau Centre). For me (living in Westboro), the Rideau Centre would remain my preferred choice. From this reason, I am very sceptical that Bayshore would attract a lot of transit traffic from the East. Another factor would be the continued availability of free parking at Bayshore (a strong disincentive to using transit). Shopping at Ikea pretty much requires a car.
Of course, other factors could change my mind. For example, if an extension to Bayshore has lower overall cost than completing the Pinecrest to SW Transitway segment as a bus Transitway, this could lead me to change my mind.
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This is supposed to be addressed by bus priority improvements on Baseline with buses from Bayshore or indeed Kanata itself.
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How would Bayshore be connected to Baseline? Via Richmond Road? A new road link? I doubt it would be as good as Transitway service all the way to Baseline and beyond.
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Umm, it'll cost less to operate and it'll be a better ride for more of the trip while supporting the goal of establishing a town centre in Orleans.
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Depending on the frequency, you could save on operating costs. However, how much would the extension cost? To users, I doubt the ride would be much different (empirical evidence suggests that they would be indifferent in cases such as these).
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I think Montreal Rd gets bypassed due to it being a long way (by walking) from anywhere. If the station were on the north side of the 174 near the Canotek business park with a shuttle bus doing a circuit, that low traffic count could be improved.
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The westbound station is already on the north side. To avoid the transfer penalty and the wait for the shuttle, I suspect that the few people that would use this station would probably walk to/from the business park. A shuttle would not attract a lot of riders and would probably be quickly terminated.
This is a low-density business park. This ranks among the least attractive types of development to service with rapid transit.
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The Cumberland Transitway will only terminate at Blair until the Hospital Transitway is built, after which point most traffic will head that way (maybe one regular route will head to Blair). I just can't see how the Blair Rd interconnection transitway can be justified in the long term.
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I hope the Hospital Transitway gets fully built, although I have my doubts.
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That "estimate" is rubbish unless the City carries on with its BRT-mentality of trenching everything everywhere (just wait for the Hospital and Cumberland Transitways). LRT doesn't require grade separation nearly everywhere like BRT does due to fewer vehicles, better adherence to schedule and tying-in to the signalling system. If they stick to a mainly at-grade alignment, it could probably be done for $50M.
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The city document, which I must admit was confusing on this issue, gave a range of estimates: it said the cost of going from Bayview to Lincoln Fields would be $135M using the Parkway and $235M to $295M using Byron (depending upon extent of cover). However, on the same page, the extra of cost of the Byron alignment was shown to be between $200M to $260M. It looks like someone forgot their calculator.
Grade separation may be required to have short headways. You’ll certainly need some trenching around Woodroffe and around any crossing of Richmond. Personally, if I lived in the immediate area, I would prefer a trench, but that's just my view.
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Now there's a problem we won't have. We're having trouble keeping the drivers we already have and we require lots of overtime from them. Suburban feeder routes could be increased in frequency as well. Combine that with attrition from retirements that will be coming fast and thick when the tunnel finally comes online and we're not going to have to layoff any bus drivers. This really is a non-issue.
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I hope you are correct. However, I was told on this forum that Calgary did get rid of a lot of its bus drivers as its LRT system came online. The increased suburban frequencies (which I agree may be required to offset the sting of the increased transfers) would cost money (or, put differently, reduce the operational savings from the conversion).
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