DENVER | Transportation Thread - Page 45

glowrock · #**881** Posted **Mar 5, 2009, 3:00 PM**

I still don't believe the $2.2 billion shortfall. As wong pointed out, RTD's gone from overly optimistic numbers to numbers so pessimistic that not even Caldara would believe to be accurate!

I definitely don't like the way RTD is essentially trying to shove another tax increase down everyone's throat. I don't like the way that they're being so political in their estimated costs and estimate revenue. I don't like any of it. RTD needs to be realistic on its costs and revenue, and go from there. If a tax increase IS needed, then ask for it, but don't just throw some numbers out that make no sense whatsoever and expect people to fall for it hook, line, and sinker!

Aaron (Glowrock)

electricron · #**882** Posted **Mar 5, 2009, 5:07 PM**

I don't think the transit agency is being political with their estimates. It's just that the estimates were made during different economic climates. It's difficult to assume the economy is going to crash during good times, likewise difficult to assume the economy will take off like gang busters during bad times.

Personally, I believe the earlier estimates were a little too good to be true, and that the present estimates are more real, maybe a little too bad to be true. But that's what happens when anyone tries to predict the future. Just check the accuracy of your local weather 5 day forecast if you don't believe me.

diablo234 · #**883** Posted **Mar 5, 2009, 10:50 PM**

You know with the cost of construction materials such as steel plummeting faster than the revenue from the sales tax, in addition to federal goverment support for building/repairing infastructure, it sounds like RTD should just go over their numbers again, since it is likely they were using older cost estimates earlier.

Strange Meat · #**884** Posted **Mar 5, 2009, 11:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by diablo234

You know with the cost of construction materials such as steel plummeting faster than the revenue from the sales tax, in addition to federal goverment support for building/repairing infastructure, it sounds like RTD should just go over their numbers again, since it is likely they were using older cost estimates earlier.

No kidding. With all the hullabaloo surrounding the budget overrun, I'd think they'd want to get those estimates re-done as soon as possible.

bcp · #**885** Posted **Mar 5, 2009, 11:20 PM**

while i know it's complicated...something is wrong if it takes 6 months to do each of these estimates. hope we can catch up on the schedule by throwing more bodies into the work.

SnyderBock · #**886** Posted **Mar 6, 2009, 1:19 AM**

This estimate was actually done by an outside company, hired to do it. All the previous estimates were done internally by RTD. I think this fact alone would result in discrepancies from the previous estimates, to this one-should it not?

But as my signature directs... Have they calculated the cost of laying railroad track using fully automated robotics, instead of paid labor? Is that simply not possible yet? They have been developing that technological capability since the mid-1990's. I mean, Northrup Grumman is now technologically ready to develop a fully automated, artificial intelligence controlled fighter/bomber. A robot simular to the tunnel boring machines, but designed for laying at-grade railroad, seems simple by comparison.

wong21fr · #**887** Posted **Mar 6, 2009, 6:33 AM**

^No, no, and no.

BTW, Northrop Gruman's UCAV is not fully automated nor could it be considered to possess a A.I. It's a glorified cruise missile with evasion capability.

Octavian · #**888** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 1:50 PM**

http://www.denverpost.com/popular/ci_11874853

DENVER AND THE WEST
New tax for FasTracks?
Some metro-area mayors see eased-in rail plans as viable option and path to more funds
By Jeffrey Leib
The Denver Post
POSTED: 03/10/2009 12:30:00 AM MDT
UPDATED: 03/10/2009 06:16:53 AM MDT

Some Denver metro-area mayors want a FasTracks sales-tax increase on the November ballot and, to boost regional support and the chances of winning such a vote, propose slowing plans to build the DIA train and the Gold Line to Arvada/Wheat Ridge.

At a Monday meeting of a Metro Mayors Caucus task force, several mayors said they fear that RTD's financial prospects are so bleak that the airport, Gold Line and West Corridor trains could eat up so much of the agency's revenues over the next 25 years that none would be left to complete other lines that would be built initially only as shortened "stubs."

"What if everybody is at risk when we go to the ballot?" Aurora Mayor Ed Tauer asked as he offered the "third option" to two untenable

Post Poll - FasTracks

Would you vote for a potential sales-tax hike to support FasTracks? (Read Related Story)

Yes
No
Unsure
I don't like taxes period

alternatives: building the West, DIA and Gold Line trains while "nothing else gets built," or "building one-third of everything."
The Interstate 225 light-rail line in Aurora is one of the lines in danger of being shortened, along with the North Metro line to Thornton/Northglenn and the Northwest train to Boulder/Longmont. Light- rail extensions to Lone Tree and Highlands Ranch also are threatened.

If the Regional Transportation District pushes ahead with plans to build the West light-rail line to Golden, the Denver International Airport line and the Gold Line, some residents in those corridors may have less incentive to back a tax increase that aims to ensure all FasTracks lines are built on time, say some mayors.

"We can't put ourselves in a position where we get nothing," said Thornton Mayor Erik Hansen, who is among those facing shortened lines.

RTD recently said it will cost $6.9 billion to build all FasTracks lines to their intended lengths by 2017, yet it expects to have only $4.7 billion in revenue to construct the project unless new money is raised.

The $2.2 billion funding gap could widen more if sales-tax trends continue.

RTD based its $4.7 billion in expected revenue on a forecast that sales-tax collections would decline 4.4 percent this year from 2008's level. In January, RTD's sales-and-use tax collections were down 13 percent from the same month a year ago.

RTD's current 0.4 percent FasTracks sales-and-use tax would have to double to allow the agency to build all FasTracks lines by 2017, operate and maintain them, and service the billions of dollars in debt the agency will need to take on to build the system, according to a model presented to mayors Monday.

A vote in 2010 or later could mean planning for the DIA and Gold Line trains would be so far advanced that building regional support for a tax increase to complete remaining lines would be less likely, some mayors worry.

A new state law gives RTD's board the authority to decide how much of a tax increase to seek and when to do so.

On Wednesday, the entire 38-member mayoral caucus will be briefed on options available to them, including a possible tax hike.

Support of the caucus is seen as critical to winning a tax increase and keeping RTD at the top of the list for federal money.

The West light-rail line to Golden has received a commitment of $308 million from the Federal Transit Administration.

Tauer's plan calls for slowing or "phasing" the effort to bid for $1 billion in federal money for the DIA and Gold Line trains and an equal amount of private financing from companies interested in building and operating the two lines.

If plans for those lines are "phased" and a vote on a sales-tax increase fails, it will force RTD and local officials to make some difficult choices.

The grant of federal money is predicated on ridership expected from completed lines to DIA and Arvada/Wheat Ridge, said FasTracks planner Julie Skeen.

"Either we do shorter versions of everything without federal money," she said, or assume the full buildout of lines to DIA and Arvada/Wheat Ridge and shorter versions of others.

Jeffrey Leib: 303-954-1645 or [email protected]

glowrock · #**889** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 2:01 PM**

I don't agree with a new tax right now. While of course with the economy the way it is sales taxes are below projections, there's no way they're going to stay that low for the duration of the FasTracks program. I'm sorry, but I see RTD's numbers as being so horrendously pessimistic right now that they're nearly insane!

RTD wants another tax hike, and I don't think this is the way to convince the voters of that.

Aaron (Glowrock)

bcp · #**890** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 2:11 PM**

i dont quite get this 'everybody should suffer' attitude with these lines...i've heard many times from RTD that each line's process and budget are completely seperate and that funds CANT be passed from line to line.

also...why didnt they apply for stimulus $$? the concept of 'shovel ready' is kind of ridiculous - if something is about to break ground, they have financing. it's projects that are far along in the plannign process (like RTDs) that could really use the committment...why didnt they apply for $2BB? woudl be a much better use than what we've done thus far with the stimulus.

Octavian · #**891** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 2:16 PM**

A few things to note:

Quote:

RTD based its $4.7 billion in expected revenue on a forecast that sales-tax collections would decline 4.4 percent this year from 2008's level. In January, RTD's sales-and-use tax collections were down 13 percent from the same month a year ago.

Keep in mind the miracle (or curse) of compounding interest. If the economy is down one year, it has an effect on revenue for every subsequent year.

bcp, the rationale for slowing down the other lines is that voters along those corridors won't vote for a tax increase if their line is getting built.

Having said all that, a tax increase in this economy is really hard to swallow.

mr1138 · #**892** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 2:58 PM**

The way I understood it, the reason RTD didn't apply for stimulus money is because they are anticipating a transit-specific federal bill sometime later this year. They are pushing ahead with the Gold Line and East Corridor because those two are the closest to being "shovel ready." If they can complete the FEIS by spring, then they will be shovel ready and eligible for federal funding should a transit-specific bill be passed. The truth is that if every single worthwhile project in America was able to get funding from the stimulus bill, it would have cost in excess of $2 Trillion. There is no way a bill that expensive could have gotten passed, so the requirement "shovel ready" was added to keep the cost down and make sure the $$ went to immediate use. I have also heard talk of an energy-grid-specific bill, healthcare-specific bill ect. ect. over the next few years in addition to a transit-specific bill. It sends the message to organizations such as RTD that if they hurry up and complete their final impact statements and become shovel ready, more money may become available soon.

Octavian · #**893** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 5:10 PM**

More RTD news:

http://www.iwantmyrocky.com/category/kevin-flynn-news/

Be sure to read the story on tolling DIA. A very different take than that in the Denver Post.

Istanbul5280 · #**894** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 5:47 PM**

So with commodity prices now back down to 2004 levels, where is the extra $2.2 billion going? What has changed from the intial cost estimate? The new budget even includes the design scale backs of the last 3 years to minimize the funding gap, right? Someone please enlighten me. Although I support a tax increase to finish the full project by 2017, its disheartening to see what appears to be a multi-billion dollar &@%# up.

Octavian · #**895** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 5:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Istanbul5280

So with commodity prices now back down to 2004 levels, where is the extra $2.2 billion going? What has changed from the intial cost estimate? The new budget even includes the design scale backs of the last 3 years to minimize the funding gap, right? Someone please enlighten me. Although I support a tax increase to finish the full project by 2017, its disheartening to see what appears to be a multi-billion dollar &@%# up.

To answer your question:

http://www.iwantmyrocky.com/2009/03/03/f...-billion-but-rtds-budget-gap-gets-wider/

wong21fr · #**896** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 5:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Octavian

More RTD news:

http://www.iwantmyrocky.com/category/kevin-flynn-news/

Be sure to read the story on tolling DIA. A very different take than that in the Denver Post.

Interesting. Though both acknowledged the political reality that killed the idea. The technology excuse was merely a flimsy justification.

Great site BTW, Octavian. There's the nucleus for a reborn Rocky when whoever it will be comes in and picks up the pieces.

SnyderBock · #**897** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 6:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr1138

The way I understood it, the reason RTD didn't apply for stimulus money is because they are anticipating a transit-specific federal bill sometime later this year. They are pushing ahead with the Gold Line and East Corridor because those two are the closest to being "shovel ready." If they can complete the FEIS by spring, then they will be shovel ready and eligible for federal funding should a transit-specific bill be passed. The truth is that if every single worthwhile project in America was able to get funding from the stimulus bill, it would have cost in excess of $2 Trillion. There is no way a bill that expensive could have gotten passed, so the requirement "shovel ready" was added to keep the cost down and make sure the $$ went to immediate use.

I think the point is, RTD has "shovel ready" projects. West Corridor has broken ground. Union Station is to break ground with in 180 days. Both projects could have benefited from increased funding.$19 million for a bike station that they got is nice, but nothing close to what they should have requested. 47 states (out of 50) requested more money per capita than Colorado.

Why not request something in the middle of the pack? And extra $20 million to restore some security and efficiency features to the West Line and another $50 million for Union Station. I mean Dallas asked for like $2 billion and the whole state of Colorado ask for just over $500 million. He signed the bill into law in Colorado, touting Colorado's alternative energy importance, yet very little of the alternative energy money in that bill is going to Colorado companies compared to some other states.

mr1138 · #**898** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 7:01 PM**

I guess I don't really know why Colorado asked for so little money overall. According to 9news.com the other day, Union Station will be receiving $18.6 Million from the stimulus bill, and several other road projects tied to FasTracks will be receiving money (such as grade separating Pecos where the trains will eventually cross). I seem to remember reading that the West Corridor received some amount of federal funding a few months before the stimulus bill as well.

I think the main reason RTD didn't ask for more money is because none of the lines are in fact "shovel ready" (except for the West line which was being planned even before FasTracks was approved). Union Station is the only component that is actually shovel ready, though why they only received $18.6 Million I can't say. According to this Dec. RTD presentation http://rtd-fastracks.com/media/uploads/nw/2008-0923_FasTracks_Public_Presentation.pdf the Gold and East corridors are still being planned full speed ahead so they can remain eligible for #1 billion in federal funding. It seems to me from the presentation that they are still planning to ask for federal dollars for at least those two lines, but have to complete the FEIS to be considered "shovel ready."

Does anybody know if any other states received funding for non shovel ready projects? If so that would completely change my understanding of why RTD didn't ask for more money right away.

Octavian · #**899** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 7:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr1138

I guess I don't really know why Colorado asked for so little money overall. According to 9news.com the other day, Union Station will be receiving $18.6 Million from the stimulus bill, and several other road projects tied to FasTracks will be receiving money (such as grade separating Pecos where the trains will eventually cross). I seem to remember reading that the West Corridor received some amount of federal funding a few months before the stimulus bill as well.

I think the main reason RTD didn't ask for more money is because none of the lines are in fact "shovel ready" (except for the West line which was being planned even before FasTracks was approved). Union Station is the only component that is actually shovel ready, though why they only received $18.6 Million I can't say. According to this Dec. RTD presentation http://rtd-fastracks.com/media/uploads/nw/2008-0923_FasTracks_Public_Presentation.pdf the Gold and East corridors are still being planned full speed ahead so they can remain eligible for #1 billion in federal funding. It seems to me from the presentation that they are still planning to ask for federal dollars for at least those two lines, but have to complete the FEIS to be considered "shovel ready."

Does anybody know if any other states received funding for non shovel ready projects? If so that would completely change my understanding of why RTD didn't ask for more money right away.

Keep in mind that requests do not equal appropriations. I'm not even sure there's any correlation. RTD can't count on the federal government for a bailout.

mr1138 · #**900** Posted **Mar 10, 2009, 7:51 PM**

True, in fact even the Union Station funds didn't come until Gov. Ritter announced a second round of projects that would receive funding just a few days ago. RTD also understands it can't count on federal funding... the federal funding is only a small part of that presentation. What their plan appears to be is to fully fund the Gold, East and West lines out of the $4.7 Billion they already have, because those are the farthest along in the planning process, and because they open a window to federal funding.

RTD lays out several options for how to proceed (like only building half, canceling certain lines, asking for taxpayer money ect.) in the presentation. But it looks like unless today's new proposal to slow down the Arvada and DIA lines is successful, those two lines really aren't in any danger of being delayed at all. It is the remaining lines that will be delayed, redesigned or canceled (which is why those mayors mentioned in the Post article are angry). Of course, if the East and Gold lines are actually successful in receiving $1 billion or more in federal funding later this year, that would change everything and allow RTD to proceed closer to the original plan.