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  #861  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 2:31 AM
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SnyderBock SnyderBock is offline
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Sales tax collections are only like 4.5% below projection. Current sales tax collections do not change future sales tax collection projections--assuming economic recovery. RTD will not collect $1 billion less in it's sales tax over the next 5 years. Therefore, if costs go down by $1 billion, the $2.1 billion gap will NOT increase, because sales tax collections are not going to be more than $1 billion less than originally projected. They might be $250 million less at the most. That would still be a net reduction in the budget gap of $750 million.

Anyway, it said TODAY, anyone have the numbers?
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  #862  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 5:08 AM
Eliyah78 Eliyah78 is offline
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Friends,

Here is an opportunity for transit advocates to speak:

Public Hearing
Which metro area transportation projects should receive economic recovery funding?
6 p.m. Wednesday, March 4, 2009
1290 Broadway, Denver

The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) will hold a public hearing to hear comments about projects to be considered for funding in the Denver region with anticipated federal transportation economic recovery funds. The DRCOG Board of Directors will select projects to receive recovery funds immediately after the public hearing or at subsequent Board meetings.

.........

http://view.exacttarget.com/?j=fe5e15797...7873&jb=ffcf14&ju=fe2f16727766047e721278

Best,
Eliyah
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  #863  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 9:38 AM
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Originally Posted by FrancoRey View Post
it's not like they're going to charge $5.00 to go over a bridge or through a tunnel like NYC.
Good to mention though that you're only generally charged to get out of NJ, no matter where, so that ~$5.00 cost is double because you are only charged going one way...
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  #864  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 11:41 AM
Octavian Octavian is offline
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"A new financial evaluation of the transit expansion program shows that the shortfall has grown by $100 million since last summer."

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_11830130

DENVER AND THE WEST
Peña Blvd. plan on hold
Logistical stop signs change mayor's mind on idea to toll Peña Blvd.
By Christopher N. Osher
The Denver Post
POSTED: 03/04/2009 12:30:00 AM MST
UPDATED: 03/04/2009 02:02:15 AM MST

The notion of charging drivers a toll on Peña Boulevard to help pay for the huge deficit facing the FasTracks regional transit project all but disintegrated Tuesday as Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper called the plan unlikely and not one he considers viable.

Mayors in the northern suburbs, worried that their FasTracks rail lines could get cut to bring costs under control, have suggested tolling Peña as an option. Broomfield Mayor Pat Quinn said Hickenlooper had brought up the concept during a Metro Mayors Caucus retreat.

Post Poll - Peña Toll

Would you want to see a vehicle toll on Peña Boulevard to help pay for train service to DIA and FasTracks expansion? (Read the story.)
Total Votes = 3524
No
68.70 %
Not sure
4.511 %
Yes
22.64 %
Don't care or never drive on Peña
4.143 %

But Hickenlooper on Tuesday quickly distanced himself from the idea, saying he floated the proposal during the meeting months ago as just one of numerous options under consideration. He said he had since learned there were logistical hurdles that made such tolls unworkable on the primary route to and from Denver International Airport.

"It is very unlikely that anyone will toll Peña Boulevard," he said at a news conference. "The technology isn't in place, and I think it would be down near the bottom of the list, but it was something that was discussed by a number of people over the last six months as one of a many funding possibilities."

The tolling proposal would be a partial cure for the Regional Transportation District's FasTracks project, now facing a budget gap that has grown to $2.2 billion.

Construction costs that surged last summer have since dropped. But the sales-tax revenue needed to build the project has dropped even further because of the economic downturn, increasing the current funding gap.

On Tuesday night, RTD general manager Cal Marsella told the agency's directors that tolling Peña Boulevard could yield about $500 million that could be used to reduce the shortfall in FasTracks funding.

A new financial evaluation of the transit expansion program shows that the shortfall has grown by $100 million since last summer.

Feds would want hunk of pie

Hickenlooper, who hadn't returned calls Monday because he was traveling, said Tuesday that he had learned that the Federal Aviation Administration had helped finance the building of Peña and probably would have to approve any tolls. He said that the federal government would probably want to receive much of the toll revenue generated along the road.

"You wouldn't make any money, so why would anyone support it?" Hickenlooper said.

Tolling Peña had already received dim reviews from business travelers, residents along the road and Denver City Councilman Michael Hancock, whose district encompasses the road.

"That toll idea has been passed around before," Hancock said. "I think it would be a very bad move because a lot of local people would be hurt by it."

Hickenlooper said that while the tolling proposal seems unlikely, it's clear that he and the other mayors must come up with a revenue solution for FasTracks, probably within the next two months.

He said RTD and the Metro Mayors Caucus are working on finding a solution "so that we can deliver a project this community believes in and desires, and what I'm going to support is the one that is most efficient at delivering what the voters were promised and is the least burdensome."

"I've been fairly consistent"

Hickenlooper said he doesn't support eliminating FasTracks lines as a way to reduce costs.

"I think I've been fairly consistent all the way along that we, as a community and a region, made a commitment together that we were going to build something, and that we should follow through on that," he said.

He stressed that he is withholding judgment on what to do until the Metro Mayors Caucus finishes weighing options and makes recommendations.

"I think that if you go talk to all the mayors, they're not waiting for one person to put a cape on and step forward," Hickenlooper said. "If you talk to the mayors, they are struggling with a very difficult problem, but I think they are very committed to doing it as a group."

Hickenlooper stressed that FasTracks is vital for the region, making note of last year's record-high gas prices.

"What was happening to our lower-income families at that point in terms of their mobility costs?" he said. "That's why FasTracks is so important.

Christopher N. Osher: 303-954-1747 or [email protected]

Last edited by Octavian; Mar 4, 2009 at 12:21 PM.
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  #865  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 2:55 PM
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How the hell does a 4-5% drop in sales tax revenues equate to more than a billion dollars in reduced funding? Am I reading something wrong in the article here?

Please help me understand this. Something's mighty fishy!

Aaron (Glowrock)
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  #866  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 3:27 PM
Octavian Octavian is offline
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No link, but the Denver Post has the story. Search for "RTD" on their site.

Costs fell by 1 billion to 6.9 billion, but revenue, local, federal and private fell to 4.7 billion. So the gap is now 2.2 billion with everything included.
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  #867  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 3:45 PM
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I agree with glowrock, the only way they can be figuring the sales tax collections have dropped this much, is if they are now projecting all the sales taxes they will ever collect, off of current collection rates; without significant economic recovery. So RTD would basically be saying the feds are wasting a couple trillion dollars in federal tax payers funds on bailouts and economic recovery plans, because there won't be any recovery.
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  #868  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 3:49 PM
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It appears that RTD is fudging the final numbers. I guess that they've decided that a tax increase is the best bet to get increased funding and some analysts have told the board that a $2 billion shortfall is what resonates with the public enough to have a reasonable chance of succeeding.
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  #869  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 4:18 PM
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Here is the story link:

So if RTD will only have $4.7 billion to build FasTracks now and $1 billion of that will be from PPP's, that means only $3.7 billion will be Federal and RTD sales tax funds. Of that $3.7 billion, RTD says $1.3 billion will be Federal funds. which leaves only $2.4 billion as coming from RTD Sales Tax District Collections.

$2.4 billion in RTD Sales Tax Collections over it's life sounds very, very low. The article also says doubling the existing tax would cover the costs of FasTracks. Well, if you double the tax, then $2.4 billion becomes $4.8 billion, plus $1.3 billion in Federal Funds equals $6.1 billion. Plus $1 billion from PPP's equals $7.1 billion for a $6.9 billion project. Plus RTD should be able to get at least $200 million more from the feds than now expected under Obama's new transit budget, leaving RTD with $7.3 billion to work with if the sales tax is doubled.

That leaves $400 million in slack in case material prices go back up some. If they don't, that leaves $400 million for system upgrades, to put all the meat back on the bones they have cut off to save costs.

All that in consideration, I think it might be possible for RTD to ask for as much as $1 billion more than the $1.3 billion they are expecting from the Feds. The new transit budget is huge and it is supposed to funnel extra funds into projects already locally funded and underway. RTD can now ask for 60% federal funds on the east and Gold lines, instead of only the 40% they are calculating. An increase from 40% federally funded to 60% federally funded on the Gold and East lines will result in an increase of $500 million in federal assistance, taking RTD's current budget up to $5.2 billion without any tax increase.


So anyway, the point is, RTD is saying sales tax collections will be $1.1 billion lower now. They will only receive $2.4 billion fro the sales tax now. That means they were projected to receive $3.5 billion from the sales tax before. A fall from $3.5 billion down to $2.4 billion, means sales tax collections are now expected to be 31% lower than before.

This is interesting, because I have been reading how sales tax collections are down by ~5% and a 31% fall is far much more than an ~5% fall.
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  #870  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 4:47 PM
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Originally Posted by wong21fr View Post
It appears that RTD is fudging the final numbers. I guess that they've decided that a tax increase is the best bet to get increased funding and some analysts have told the board that a $2 billion shortfall is what resonates with the public enough to have a reasonable chance of succeeding.
If this is what RTD is doing, then they should immediately disband. Bullshit like this will cause the impending doom of FasTracks, as people will actually start listening to the II and Caldara!

Why give those idiots any ammo to work with? In this case, I'd be all with them getting a petition together to repeal FasTracks!

RTD simply CANNOT fudge the numbers like this an expect to be taken seriously. This seems to be a load of pure crap.

That being said, I'll wait to see their final cost estimate before going overboard. I just can't believe their sales tax forecasts were more than 30% too high, it just seems ridiculous!

Aaron (Glowrock)
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  #871  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 5:04 PM
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Dude, it's politics. RTD can deliver the product, but I think they are taking a longer term approach as they've now got all of the Denver mayor's on their side and have the ability to ask for a tax increase or work with the mayor's on a alternate funding scheme.
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  #872  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 5:12 PM
Paulopolis Paulopolis is offline
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Maybe it's a scheme to get NexTracks worked in there somehow.
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  #873  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 5:50 PM
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Dude, it's politics. RTD can deliver the product, but I think they are taking a longer term approach as they've now got all of the Denver mayor's on their side and have the ability to ask for a tax increase or work with the mayor's on a alternate funding scheme.
This is political suicide, though! I can understand FasTracks SUCCESS leading to a tax extension for the so-called NexTracks, but for RTD to essentially purposefully fudge the budget numbers to make it look like FasTracks is in a more dire financial situation than it's really in is just insane.

A little massaging of the numbers is okay, but this is downright mathematical masturbation!

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  #874  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 5:52 PM
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Add that to the dual wordings never put together. Mathematical masturbation....

I'm googling it now.

EDIT: Too many hits. It was actually quite scary.

Anyho, I agree the inflated budget shortfall numbers are absurd. I don't see how this helps RTD in the least to be looked at as a viable transit agency for any future project, assuming FasTracks ever even comes into fruition.
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  #875  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 6:00 PM
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how has it been determined that they ARE fudging the numbers?

the DIA toll thing is ridiculous on so many levels...but if it happens, there used to be tolling stations a few miles outside DIA on pena. we spent a ton of money ripping it out and re-routing the road....
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  #876  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 6:24 PM
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Slides from last night's presentation: http://www.rtd-fastracks.com/main_152

Last edited by Octavian; Mar 4, 2009 at 9:13 PM.
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  #877  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 6:44 PM
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Originally Posted by glowrock View Post
This is political suicide, though! I can understand FasTracks SUCCESS leading to a tax extension for the so-called NexTracks, but for RTD to essentially purposefully fudge the budget numbers to make it look like FasTracks is in a more dire financial situation than it's really in is just insane.

A little massaging of the numbers is okay, but this is downright mathematical masturbation!

Aaron (Glowrock)
I wouldn't say they are purposefully fudging the numbers. Rather, they are selecting the numbers that best benefit them. It looks like they went with the worst case scenario for revenue growth, having the economic downturn lasting through 2010.

I say the are underestimating revenues while overestimating costs, due to manufactured products lagging behind raw materials for price decreases. It's not dishonest, but instead of being somewhat optimsitic they are being very, very pessimistic.
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  #878  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 6:51 PM
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Their original numbers were overly optimistic and did not consider commodity and gas price fluctuations as well as market fluctuations. Now, it looks like they are reversing their strategy, and it makes some sense to me. Their message is that FastTracks is in big trouble - and why wouldn't it be, everything else in the economy sucks. So, once the economy recovers, the actual numbers will look better than the estimates, and RTD can tout (for the first time) that they are doing better than estimated. If they can overcome the initial backlash, they can rub it in to the likes of John Caldara and other opponents.

PS: I still think that the US-36 BRT line is stupid.
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  #879  
Old Posted Mar 4, 2009, 10:11 PM
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**http://www.rtd-fastracks.com/main_152

Looking at this, if 2008, 2010 and 2011 are better than being projected, it woudl close the funding gap significantly. However, many people have lost their jobs and new jobs may not be created this fast. I still don't get how these small reductions in projected sales tax equate to a 31% reduction in total sales tax collections. I guess 1% less per year, over 30 years woudl be 30% less in total? Is this sales tax decline going to last for 30 years?
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  #880  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2009, 1:58 PM
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http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_11838906

DENVER AND THE WEST
FasTracks unity derailed
A $2.2 billion deficit that may delay some metro routes forces mayors to take sides.
By Jeffrey Leib
The Denver Post
POSTED: 03/05/2009 12:30:00 AM MST
UPDATED: 03/05/2009 06:20:35 AM MST

The once-solid coalition of Denver metro-area mayors that unanimously promoted RTD's FasTracks tax five years ago is splintering into camps of potential winners and losers as they grapple with ways to close the project's $2.2 billion budget deficit.

At a FasTracks task force meeting of the Metro Mayors Caucus on Wednesday, Broomfield Mayor Pat Quinn said he cannot support the Regional Transportation District's pursuit of commuter-rail lines to Denver International Airport and Arvada/Wheat Ridge if doing so means the Northwest corridor line that will serve his community is relegated to a secondary position.

RTD is pushing forward the DIA train and Gold Line to Arvada/Wheat Ridge because it expects the two commuter lines will get $1 billion in federal money and a private consortium will build and operate them and bring another $1 billion to the project.

RTD officials were looking for support from the mayors' group by March 31 to advance the DIA/Gold Line public-private partnership so it remains in line for federal funding.

But at Wednesday's meeting, because of rifts within the group, the mayors present said they would not try to come to agreement on promoting the DIA/Gold Line venture by the end of the month.

Quinn said he has been meeting with fellow mayors in the U.S. 36 corridor and they worry that pushing those two lines forward may leave the Northwest corridor languishing.

"You're asking us to support the concept of completing East (DIA)and Gold," Quinn told the task force. "We're not going to go there.

"Trains are leaving one by one, yet if you're the last train, you may not leave at all," he added, referring to the Northwest line's status as one of three full FasTracks rail lines without adequate funding if RTD is unable to close the $2.2 billion gap.

The others are the North Metro light-rail line to Thornton/Northglenn and the Interstate 225 line.

At Wednesday's meeting, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper urged his fellow mayors to stay united and avoid letting frustration over the FasTracks funding gap break apart the coalition.

"I worry that the level of communication is getting antagonistic here," Hickenlooper said.

In 2004, all 31 members of the mayors caucus backed the FasTracks tax vote. The caucus now has 38 members.

Hickenlooper urged his colleagues to look to the federal government for more funding as a way to bail out FasTracks.

On Tuesday, RTD officials presented a new FasTracks financial analysis showing that one way to entirely make up for the $2.2 billion shortfall would be to double the existing 0.4 percent FasTracks sales tax that Denver metro residents now pay.

Some mayors and other transit supporters say voters are unlikely to approve a 100 percent increase in the FasTracks tax while the economy is mired in recession.

Aurora Mayor Ed Tauer said a doubling of the tax might be needed.

"Quite frankly, if RTD can't build it and run it (by) doubling the tax, we have the wrong people at RTD," Tauer said.

If money cannot be found to close the $2.2 billion FasTracks funding gap, Quinn said, "we want all corridors to share the deficit."

Jeffrey Leib: 303-954-1645 or [email protected]
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