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Originally Posted by lrt's friend
I guess now that we see that 2017 is the earliest for Increment 1 of Phase 1. How much realistically will be built by 2031? It seems to me that 2031 transit network is nothing more than a pipe dream the way this is progressing.
It appears that there was a lot of talk about risks today. I wonder if they talked about the risk of not generating significant new ridership in Increment 1. If say, we only see a 5% ridership increase in the year following opening, will this whole thing be considered a white elephant causing the rest of the project to be deferred? Is there any possibility that this may happen?
My question to everybody here. After seeing Increment 1, will you realistically use transit more often or not and explain why? I asked this question at a group discussion with our city councillor a while back and the response was quite predictable and honest. The response was not encouraging and at that time, we were still looking at a more rapid build out of LRT. This question gets past all the emotions of who should get LRT service first, and gets to the real point, will we get new ridership? It is too bad that this simple question was not posed in the public consultations.
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I asked myself that same excellent question a few months ago when the plan was first made public.
I currently use OC Transpo seven-days-a-week. I deliberately chose to live near a Transitway station (Westboro) and I work/shop downtown. I also make the effort to use transit whenever it is a reasonable alternative (for me, “reasonable” means the transit trip is no more than 30 minutes slower than by car). I nonetheless have a car because there are some trips (e.g., to Merivale, to the Glebe and to Gatineau) where taking transit would be too circuitous, take at least one hour and require at least one transfer (versus a direct car trip of 15 minutes or less). I asked myself whether, under the plan (full build-out), I would switch to transit for these trips. The answer was unfortunately no. The plan would do little to make these trips more attractive.
For the people who live west of Tunney’s Pasture like myself, I figure that 2020 will be the earliest year we will see LRT service. Because of the construction and the operation of the initial Blair to Tunney’s LRT segment, we are going to be relegated to Scott Street for a period at least five years, and more likely seven. I’ve taken the #18 bus many times so I know what it’s like to go down Scott Street. Believe me it’s not pretty. One hopes that, at a minimum, they’ll reserve the inside lanes for transit vehicles. Even if they do that, right-turning cars and trucks are going to make the trek an ordeal for tens of thousands of riders. The Mackenzie King Bridge to Hurdman segment will face similar issues. Delays and operating costs will increase. Ridership will suffer.
And when LRT service does come, what kind of service will it be? For my trips to/from downtown (most of my trips):
• The LRT will be more reliable than current service and station-to-station travel time will definitely be faster (because of a more direct route, the tunnel and fewer stations).
• However, it will be less frequent so peoples’ waits will be higher. How less frequent is not clear since the peak and off-peak headways of the LRT service are not known at this time. If the headways are like the Expo Line or the Canada Line in Vancouver, then waits will not be a problem. If the headways are like Calgary’s LRT (5 minutes during the peak and 10 minutes off-peak), waits will be a problem. The latter scenario may be likely if the tunnel also has to accommodate trains from the South and from Gatineau.
• They still are planning to have only two downtown stations, instead of three (there are currently four downtown stations). Just as bad, they may put the easternmost station on Queen St., instead of Albert or Slater. Overall, this will mean longer walks for most riders.
• The rail cars will have fewer seats than currently is the case.
People view waiting and walking time as much more onerous than riding time (i.e., time spent inside a vehicle). Thus, overall, there is a good chance that the service will not be viewed as better than today's.
Finally, I have co-workers who are still seething at the fact that their bus route was truncated at Hurdman a few years ago. Whenever they see me, they complain about it. I think the advocates of the current plan are underestimating the impact that the forced transfers will have. Yes, most will continue to take transit, but they’ll be worse-off. Some will give up, or insist that bigger park & ride lots be constructed. These park & ride lots will diminish TOD opportunities near stations.