Mobile Development Thread

[NitekKetin]

I wouldn't mind hypothetically locating this waterpark along Industrial Parkway (AL 158) near the site of the Racetrack.

[MobiMan]

I would like to see one on these Downtown

[MobiMan]

sorry it wouldnt work heres the link

www.buggy.com

[pkp]

Originally Posted by BamaGrad04

Airport passenger counts down
Decline at Mobile Regional much steeper than neighboring airports
Tuesday, July 22, 2008By JEFF AMYBusiness Reporter

Passenger traffic at Mobile Regional Airport fell nearly 15 percent in June compared with the same month in 2007 and is off 7.5 percent for the first six months of the year, a much steeper decline than nationwide or at neighboring airports.

The drop came as airlines added more flights and larger planes in June, meaning some carriers saw their Mobile-bound planes only half-full on average. Airlines have announced that they will cut three weekday round-trips to Mobile after Labor Day, but officials warned Monday at a Mobile Airport Authority meeting that at least one more daily round-trip could be in jeopardy.

"Fuel prices increased, fares increased and passengers are really looking for the best value," Aviation Director Thomas Hughes said.

American Eagle, which added a fifth flight to and from Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport as of June 1, has now warned that its planes are too empty to turn a profit, Hughes said. The airline's planes to and from Mobile, including a once-daily round trip to Chicago that will end after Labor Day, were 67 percent full in June, according to airport figures.

"The fifth flight to Dallas is not as strong as it needs to be right now," Hughes said.

The Air Transport Association says that with the current high price of jet fuel, the average plane needed to be 83.5 percent full to make a profit in the first quarter of 2008. Nationwide, the average plane was 77.2 percent full during that period.

American Eagle had 21.3 percent of Mobile passengers in June. A subsidiary of AMR Corp., based in Fort Worth, Texas, the American Airlines regional carrier said last month that it would cut flights between Chicago and almost all Gulf Coast airports, part of a company-wide cost-cutting drive.

Delta has said it will cut the number of round trips to Atlanta from seven to six after Labor Day and reduce its seat total on Mobile-Atlanta planes by 21 percent. Most of those seats were added at the start of summer.

Mark Sixel, an airline consultant, said disappearing passengers are being driven away by high prices as airlines try to raise enough money to stay solvent

"It's a fare issue at this point," said Sixel, president of the Sixel Consulting Group, based in Eugene, Ore. "As fares go up, you tend to make flying a less attractive alternative."

Sixel said that business-oriented markets such as Mobile have seen the greatest fare increases. Markets that have discount carriers or and cater to leisure travelers, such as Gulfport and Pensacola, benefit because airlines "have to be much less aggressive or that traffic will disappear," he said.

Traffic has fallen much less at Pensacola Regional Airport, 0.4 percent so far this year, while the number of fliers to and from Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport has risen 18.6 percent in the first six months of 2008.
Worldwide, passengers on U.S. airlines rose 0.4 percent in the first five months of 2008, the Air Transport Association said, thanks to a 5.4 percent growth of international travelers. Domestic traffic fell 0.3 percent.

As someone who flies out of MOB every 2-3 weeks, I think our airport is one of our biggest weaknesses. Honestly, the fares to international locations (and many US locations) through the hubs are actually a little better out of Mobile than PNS or GPT, but any regional flights are cheaper out of the neighboring airports. I understand why the other airports have cheaper flights (low cost carriers), and more destinations (greater volume because of cheaper flights due to said low cost carriers), but we are a much larger market than either PNS or GPT. It's nuts that we would not at least be keeping our own market (about 1/2 of what PNS gets and 1/4 of what GPT gets) but we should actually be pulling from them. I am not sure how we deal with this. In the past, Delta has been dominant enough to step in and kill the low cost's fare for six months until they leave. Now, the market is more evenly distributed and I think a play by another low cost might work. However, its a tough business, so its hard to say. We are due for some fresh leadership at our passenger airport - we are one of the most booming cities in the US. We do not want to run that off witha shitty airport or lose any of the exisitng business we have that relies on cheap reliable flights (CPSI, SSI, etc...).

My 2 cents.

[phoenixboi08]

Originally Posted by MobileLSUboy2005

thank you for your humor, and ideas....i agree, you can't expect mobile, a city with less than 3/4 of a million people in the entire CSA to have everything a MAJOR US city has. I often compare it with Baton Rouge, because they are similar in size, have similar layouts (altho mobile's is much better), and have similar economies, (minus a major university in mobile of course - no, south does NOT count). I want to try and make Mobile the best medium-sized city it can be, by smart growth and forward thinking. But as always, my biggest complaint is that the city cannot attract good retailers, other than what every other mediocre town like Tallahassee and Pensacola have... We can do better, and eventually we'll get it right.
To increase standard of living, get better schools and stuff!

I just don't understand how we can expect "growth" and no ACTUAL growth. The population in this city will increase DRASTICALLY there is no avoiding it. It will happen. The question is not ARE we ready, but rather WILL we be prepared to handle it? At the rate that things are begining to unfold I wouldn't actually mind holding my breath!

[MobileLSUboy2005]

Ok so, if we want mobile to grow like crazy, and get all this cool stuff and a big tourism industry and all that jazz....lets do research on what Dubai is doing in the UAE, and take notes...they turned that town from a tiny little nothing into what it is now in a decade, all because they knew the oil industry would run dry, and they needed a new industry. So they decided tourism was their best shot, and they pulled it off! Not saying that we have to be the next Dubai, but we could probably learn some lessons from them! haha

[10101000]

I see your point, but Mobile is looking for a population increase not a place to hang for a few days and leave. Mobile wants a permanent population. Does that make sense?

[NitekKetin]

I think the city might see a slight increase in population, but the outlying suburbs, especially Saraland and areas north, with see phenomenal growth. The city of Mobile's population has never soared beyond 250k.

[10101000]

Well I believe that it will go abover 250m in years to come.

[MobileLSUboy2005]

Originally Posted by (Tim)

Well I believe that it will go abover 250m in years to come.

250 MILLION? or thousand?? haha

[10101000]

Originally Posted by MobileLSUboy2005

250 MILLION? or thousand?? haha

250m means two hundred and fifty thousand 250mm means two hundred and fifty million.

[DruidCity]

I do think Mobile would benefit from more tourism. No, it's never going to be a Las Vegas, Orlando, or Dubai, but the city is missing out on a good bit of money that drives right past Mobile into beaches, casinos, and so forth
an hour or two away. Some of the most walkable, "urban" developments in the country are tourism-based districts.
Furthermore, the extreme lack of tourism in Alabama cities does hurt your air service. People fly to Alabama's "major" cities to do business or see family, not to vacation. Increase the demand for people to fly into your airport, then you'll see a better supply of flights departing.

Anyway, regarding city growth, here's the current census estimate link:
http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2007-4.html

If this is accurate, the city of Mobile's population is down about 7,500 from the 2000 census, as of July 2007, though it has been pretty much even since 2004.

[10101000]

There is only one Las Vegas, Mobile does not need to be like any of those cities at all. Mobile is its own and should be set apart.

[Electrical Porpoise]

Originally Posted by MobileLSUboy2005

Ok so, if we want mobile to grow like crazy, and get all this cool stuff and a big tourism industry and all that jazz....lets do research on what Dubai

Its easy to figure out what we need to do if we are going to do it like they did. Become connected with the Clinton's internally and then get them to sway public policy into your favor so you can succeed beyond your wildest dreams on Wall St.

Then we will have enough capital for one of these.

[MobileLSUboy2005]

Originally Posted by Electrical Porpoise

Its easy to figure out what we need to do if we are going to do it like they did. Become connected with the Clinton's internally and then get them to sway public policy into your favor so you can succeed beyond your wildest dreams on Wall St.

Then we will have enough capital for one of these.

lol was "Become connected with the Clinton's internally" a double entandre??

[Electrical Porpoise]

Originally Posted by MobileLSUboy2005

lol was "Become connected with the Clinton's internally" a double entandre??

Yeah, and I didnt mean for it to look like they possess "internally." But we all know Bill does.

[bystander1]

Originally Posted by (Tim)

250m means two hundred and fifty thousand 250mm means two hundred and fifty million.

I thought 250K means two hundred and fifty thousand & 250M means two hundred and fifty million.

[buckett5425]

Originally Posted by bystander1

I thought 250K means two hundred and fifty thousand & 250M means two hundred and fifty million.

yea 1K=1000 ; 1M=1,000,000 and 1T=1,000,000,000

The abbreviations comes from the Greek suffixes. What is your system based on Tim? It had me bewildered also.

[Bogue]

Furthermore, the extreme lack of tourism in Alabama cities does hurt your air service. People fly to Alabama's "major" cities to do business or see family, not to vacation.

umm... Pleasure Island?

I will give you that tourism can significantly impact that issue & I suspect that if the city had built their Airport in Baldwin county instead of out west the numbers would be significantly different. There's still land available to fix this problem. Too bad we can't get Pensacola to come in on it and help build a large new airport between the two cities.

As far as Mobile's city population is concerned, the city took a beating just after the millenium (whole bunch of lost jobs, mainly... plus lots of folk moving across the bay as usual) and has pretty much recovered from that issue (though there're still lots of folk moving across the bay). Growth seems now to be radiating in a semicircle from Tillman's Corner, through the Schillinger's area, and up to Saraland. As ThyssenKrupp & the racetrack go forward I suspect Saraland will probably be the big growth area in terms of percentage population change for a little while. Even Pritchard's managed to get its feet under it somewhat. Gentrification will ultimately hit there if it keeps its act together. While those 2 areas are outside the city limits the city has made a few subtle overtures to annexing more of the areas in Tillman's Corner & Theodore. May not be the most glamorous parts of the county, but that's a lot of folk involved there & the city would be silly not to make a move on that if the people there are willing.

Personally, I would like to see Mobile, Saraland, Bayou La Batre, Pritchard, etc. disincorporate and re-integrate as a county-wide city structure. It's been happening all over the country and helps streamline government while giving the city cores more economic clout. It also brings sanity to places that are having issues with poor leadership (as happened in Pritchard leading to their bankruptcy). I really think that such a move would be beneficial for the top 4 cities in this state, esp. Mobile & B'ham.

http://www.fairus.org/site/PageServer?pagename=research_research1fc5_sup

Interesting projection on the population there by 2025. 740K or so. It's a page on immigration, but it's using census bureau figures (including the 2007 census bureau estimate) to calculate their projections. My only issue is that they include the entirety of Baldwin county instead of the small sliver that's actually w/in the current MSA. They're projecting a growth rate of 15% for just Mobile County (to just under 460K). Obviously, the rapid economic expansion in the area may affect these figures... so take them as just rough estimates.

As far as Tim's abbreviations. I've seen that used before... usually by tax folk (maybe b/c a mil = 1000th or summat'). I've just always used "K" b/c of the metric system.

[SouthSky]

Thanks for the link Bogue... I love statistics. They also don't take into account the possibility of adding counties to the metro, so the quite probable addition of 1-2 counties would add even more population. Of course, Airbus would increase that growth...

In Spanish 'mil' means thousand, so that could be another interpretation.