Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago Shawn
No basis, as ward boundaries are extremely arbitrary, and traditionally set on demographics and population, of which there has been a large shift. There is no demographic basis anymore for the old rationale of the current L-shape boundary and with the population growth the ward must shrink quite a bit. Naturas lost a huge clip at the south end of the 42nd ward, and with Fioretti living out on the west side, I don't see anything keeping parts of the South Loop in his ward, should the boundaries shift. He can leverage power all he wants, but he really doesn't have that much say in the final determination of ward boundaries. Pat Dowell in the 3rd ward on the other hand, has lost all of the CHA high-rises along the Dan Ryan and has parts of Englewood that continue to bleed population, so it is likely this ward will grow, and it already has a big presence on the Near South Side including Dearborn Park south of 15th Street.
Really its anyone's guess as to what may happen and how that will influence future development, and Bob may very well rule the South Loop for the next 20 years. That is my take on what may happen.
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So you post what will happen without any basis?
You may think it is arbitrary but it isn't. The remap is done on census data with two goals, setting each ward with 2% of the city population and having the wards reflect in number the percentages of voting age residents city wide in terms of racial demographics. That is, that if the City population (for example) is 50% african american, 25% white and 25% hispanic, then 25 wards should have AA of voting age in the majority, 12-13 with whites in the majority, and 12-13 with hispanic.
The process is established by law, and the city council gets the first crack. If they agree then it goes into place and then can be subject to legal challenge. If the city council can not agree, then various alternative maps are put up for vote on public referendum. Those can also be legally challenged once in place.
So it is a political calculation by each alderman in a growing pop. ward or declining pop ward as to what territory they would like to add and what they would like to subtract. If the 2nd ward is too big, then the negotiation would be what to give up. Fioretti has a place on the west side, but the ward goes far further west then his residence. To suggest he is certainly going to cede south loop areas that are in a building and development phase to Dowell so he can hold on to areas west of the United Center (or as far south as 35th street) because he lives on the west side, well let's just say that is a foolish conclusion.
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Does that include Poland, Jerry? 
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