Posted May 28, 2008, 7:59 AM
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Business in Vancouver May 27-June 2, 2008; issue 970
Real estate roundup: Peter Mitham
Growth in Metro Vancouver housing stock hits 35-year low
B.C. Place overhaul could help kick-start development of a creekside cultural corridor for the city
Professional development
One of the most intriguing details to come from Bob Rennie’s annual presentation to the Urban Development Institute on May 15 was a remark that growth in Metro Vancouver’s housing stock is now the slowest of any five-year period in the past 35 years.
We’ve heard this sort of thing before, of course. When housing starts first started to reach new highs in the wake of the downturn of the late 1990s, observers were quick to point out that the new tallies were still off those of the early 1990s. Indeed, only last year did starts in Metro Vancouver again crest 20,000.
Still, the market has been moving at a good pace – albeit not quite as slow as Rennie reported.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. figures show that for the five years ending in 2006, Metro Vancouver posted 85,872 housing starts. While that falls short of the 90,000-plus racked up in the two five-year periods following Expo 86, the first half of this decade was the third highest of any five-year period since 1961.
Moreover, the five years prior to 2001 saw a worse slump than during the early 1980s, suggesting that the current boom may still have legs – especially with what Rennie described as the “$5 billion dollar marketing branding program” that is the Olympics still 21 months away.
Don’t count on a greater supply of homes to ease the upward pressure on prices, either.
Most developers will point to land and construction costs as the major factors pushing up pricing on new homes, both of which Rennie acknowledged among the reasons new home prices aren’t about to ease in the near future (and an influx of foreign money isn’t likely to make the resale market any cheaper, either).
While a greater number of listings this spring are creating “more choice” for consumers (to quote Cameron Muir, chief economist of B.C. Real Estate Association), the current lull is not unlike the pause the market saw in late 2004 and last summer before pushing the basic cost of a home hereabouts to something close to $600 a square foot ($500 seemed like a good deal a few months ago).
Rennie’s advice to developers?
“Calm down. It’s all going to be all right.”
Professional impact
A new chapter of 15-year-old social ventures group Net Impact launched May 21 in Vancouver.
The new professional chapter of the San Francisco-based organization complements student chapters at UBC and SFU, connecting business professionals with opportunities to apply their skills in support of local non-profit organizations and social ventures.
Though not intended as a networking group, the chapter launched with a gathering on Main Street to hear Robert Safrata, CEO of Richmond-based Novex Couriers as well as head of Enterra Development Corp., discuss the ease of being green.
Safrata, a BIV 40 Under 40 award recipient in 1996 and more recently a participant in former U.S. vice-president Al Gore’s climate change boot camp, believes a number of simple steps could make businesses more responsible (a term he prefers to “sustainable”).
Enterra is pursuing two residential projects in Ontario that aim to be “restorative” – that is, giving back to the environment more than they take. Among the projects is a 100-acre site with 10 clusters of housing that could start construction later this year in Thornbury, Ontario. A proposed residential project is also planned near the ski area at Collingwood, Ontario.
Culture on the move
Almost like the emergence of one of those instant Polaroid prints, the picture of the new False Creek is taking shape – slowly.
Never mind the retractable roof slated for BC Place; regardless of its merits (and cost), it assures the ongoing existence of the stadium. The announcement that the adjacent Plaza of Nations site is secured for the Vancouver Art Gallery and the plan to locate the Vancouver Playhouse Theatre Co. on the southeast shore of False Creek, promises to establish a bonafide creekside cultural corridor.
The idea seems perfect – linked by the seawall and 120 acres of park space from Sunset Beach to Vanier Park, the shores of False Creek are already home to the aquatic centre, science centre, the planetarium and Vancouver museum.
But a call to deputy city manager Jody Andrews last week elicited a more cautious response.
The announcement regarding the art gallery has city staff rethinking work already done toward a cultural precinct for the city. Work to date had focused on the Queen Elizabeth theatre as the heart of the precinct, but Andrews says the vision requires more thought in light of the province’s announcements.
Discussions began last week, and Andrews expects recalibration of the cultural precincts work – and a parallel report on the Northeast False Creek neighbourhood that includes the Plaza of Nations and BC Place – will take time. How much, he couldn’t say.
“The city can’t presuppose how that will turn out,” he said of the process.
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