ATLANTA TRANSIT (Marta, Beltline, Peachtree Streetcar, LovJoy Commuter, etc...)

[sprtsluvr8]

Originally Posted by BabydaddyATL

Question for sprtsluvr8

Could you rank what factors in order of importance on how you feel families choose to buy a home. You can start with mine and feel free to add or delete any criteria I added. I am really curious.

Decision Tree on Where People Chose To Live
1. Home Price
2. Taxes
3. City Services
4. Crime
5. Schools
6. Commutes
7. Gas Prices
8. A yard
9. House size
10. Race - Debatable

I don't speak for other people...each person or family is different and has different criteria for choosing a place to live. I just think some of your assertions are off-balanced and that you are trying very hard to please your girlfriend by adamantly agreeing with her. This debate is SO old...the fact is, people move to ATLANTA, not to Marietta or Duluth or Fayetteville or any other burb. The region is called Atlanta for a reason - the city is the center attraction and will continue to be.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by sprtsluvr8

I don't speak for other people...each person or family is different and has different criteria for choosing a place to live. I just think some of your assertions are off-balanced and that you are trying very hard to please your girlfriend by adamantly agreeing with her. This debate is SO old...the fact is, people move to ATLANTA, not to Marietta or Duluth or Fayetteville or any other burb. The region is called Atlanta for a reason - the city is the center attraction and will continue to be.

Andrea, is that the Bullshit meter I hear going off?

For someone that does not speak for other people, it sure seems like you were speaking for other people before. This debate may be old, but it is still worthy of discussion. Which is why you felt the need to chime in the first place. So, if you can not rationalize your thesis, don't disparage mine.

[Fiorenza]

I just think some of your assertions are off-balanced and that you are trying very hard to please your girlfriend by adamantly agreeing with her.

Babydaddy is just one of Andrea's many admirers. I'd take Andrea's side in most arguments just to stay on her good list.

[Fiorenza]

sport,

There is much to recommend Atlanta to a Duluth drugstore cowboy as myself. I certainly enjoy visiting Atlanta in order to look at real estate, go to a restaurant, or take in a sporting event. I'd like to live there, but there is one main problem: it's very expensive. Yes, if I was a government worker or employee of a nonprofit organization in downtown, then the cost of gas would be an offset to the cost of living. But actually, most folks are still in the private sector and can work anywhere they or their private-sector bosses dictate. I see the disconnect along private vs public sector, as well as generational. In other words, older people tend to want to move out, younger people move in. Other than economics, the main problem for Atlanta right now is the homeless element downtown. Every visitor from outside the area who I take downtown has been turned off by that.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by testarossa50

No.



False. But insofar as the increase in gas prices has a marginal effect on your decision, you face a greater incentive than you previously did to move closer to your employer.



No. You've made two false statements. I can't determine much from that.

I swear for the life of me I can not understand your responses. They are like Allen Greenspan (former Federal Reserve Chairman) speak. He could answer a question and everyone was like what the hell is it yes or no?

Anyway, my thesis is people will not choose to move closer to the city based on gas prices at the current level. Consumers will change the discretionary buying habits to off-set these expenses. Do you agree or disagree?

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by BabydaddyATL

I swear for the life of me I can not understand your responses. They are like Allen Greenspan (former Federal Reserve Chairman) speak. He could answer a question and everyone was like what the hell is it yes or no?

As someone seriously considering an economics PhD, I guess I'll take that as a compliment.

Anyway, my thesis is people will not choose to move closer to the city based on gas prices at the current level. Consumers will change the discretionary buying habits to off-set these expenses. Do you agree or disagree?

Disagree.

Understand that I think most people--the vast majority--probably won't choose to move.

But some people might--maybe it was a close decision or they may have always wanted to move intown but never took the initiative, but with the commute to their legal job on Peachtree Street costing an extra $100/month and condos going for a steal, now seems like a great time.

Or a single, middle-aged professional with no kids lands that management job at bellsouth or georgia pacific and decides to move to Atlanta from, say, Birmingham, extra cash saved on gas would be worth considering, especially since s/he can keep the Ford Explorer he got three years ago by living intown.

Or a newly graduated teacher who just got a job at Grady High, and always liked the idea of living in town for a few years but figured it would cost too much, found that spending $30/mo instead of $150/mo on gas tipped the scales in favor of the city.

These are the types of people that are most likely to make the move, and it's not at all farfetched to think that gas prices might be a factor in their decision.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by testarossa50

As someone seriously considering an economics PhD, I guess I'll take that as a compliment.



Disagree.

Understand that I think most people--the vast majority--probably won't choose to move.

But some people might--maybe it was a close decision or they may have always wanted to move intown but never took the initiative, but with the commute to their legal job on Peachtree Street costing an extra $100/month and condos going for a steal, now seems like a great time.

Or a single, middle-aged professional with no kids lands that management job at bellsouth or georgia pacific and decides to move to Atlanta from, say, Birmingham, extra cash saved on gas would be worth considering, especially since s/he can keep the Ford Explorer he got three years ago by living intown.

Or a newly graduated teacher who just got a job at Grady High, and always liked the idea of living in town for a few years but figured it would cost too much, found that spending $30/mo instead of $150/mo on gas tipped the scales in favor of the city.

These are the types of people that are most likely to make the move, and it's not at all farfetched to think that gas prices might be a factor in their decision.

To use your term, gas prices will have a marginal effect. Remember it still cost more to rent an apartment in the city than in the suburbs. Probably more than the cost of the increased gas prices.

On a personal note, I majored in economics in college. I knew you had to have some background in economics by the way you write. Economics drove me nuts. Economist make economic models based on a few variables and develop a theory. Kind of like your x,y,p, q model versus my model that had 10 variables.

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by BabydaddyATL

To use your term, gas prices will have a marginal effect. Remember it still cost more to rent an apartment in the city than in the suburbs. Probably more than the cost of the increased gas prices.

On a personal note, I majored in economics in college. I knew you had to have some background in economics by the way you write. Economics drove me nuts. Economist make economic models based on a few variables and develop a theory. Kind of like your x,y,p, q model versus my model that had 10 variables.

That's true. But the advantage of the mdoel I use is that it isolates variables to try to figure out the impact of each and every one changing.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by testarossa50

That's true. But the advantage of the mdoel I use is that it isolates variables to try to figure out the impact of each and every one changing.

Testarossa, there in lies the problem with economics in my opinion. In the real world, choice cannot be isolated to a few variables and predict how an individual change in one will impact the whole macroeconomy. I think philosophy or psychology has a better chance of predicting consumer habits. Life is way to complex to be isolated to economic models IMHO.

Best of luck with your PHD.

[GTviajero81]

I'm sorry but testarossa50.....

You had me at, "all things being equal....."

That classic phrase of an economist.

[Chris Creech]

[QUOTE=BabydaddyATL;3511152]I don't believe Andrea is saying that people will move closer to their jobs based solely on gas prices.

Decision Tree on Where People Chose To Live
1. Home Price
2. Taxes
3. City Services
4. Crime
5. Schools
6. Commutes
7. Gas Prices
8. A yard
9. House size
10. Race - Debatable

QUOTE]


One item that you left off and it goes to the heart of the NPR article I posted earlier, is: Home Value.

The old surburan sprawl model was driven in large part by a general belief that home prices were always going to appreciate, and that if anything surburban homes would appreciate more, while intown urban homes were generally not as desirable and not good investments.

Since the 80s-90s, Atlanta has seen that model change with selective gentrification, and now with a more broader return to the city and feeling it is as a whole becoming a more desirable area to live for a number of reasons.

The NPR story shows how suburbs are now become riskier investments, and no guarantee of bankable equity. Where intown real estate is now proving to be holding or even still increasing in value in these trouble real estate environments.

So just from a stand point of home equity growth and sound investment, there's a growing argument for moving intown.

[echinatl]

To me spending money on gas is like wasting cash. I just can’t stand it, it’s the equivalent of burning money to me. When it was cheap you were only burning a little, so it wasn’t a big deal, but when it turns into a $150.00 + chunk of money every month, it was enough to drive me crazy. I would rather spend an extra 400 bucks on my mortgage, than spend 150 on gas because at least I feel like I’m getting something for my money, instead of burning it.

A lot of people I know are like me and have or will be moving in town.

People have different priorities and high gas prices will influence people like me to move closer to where they work, that’s just how it is, even if you disagree.

[netdragon]

With the new high-rise office and condos planned, Cumberland HAS to get tied in. I'm glad that the Atlanta - Marietta line may happen. So what's the next steps? What should happen now if the Marietta - Atlanta line will happen? Also, will the Chattanooga rail study interfere?

By the way, I'd stop throwing the word "suburban" around like it's a buzzword. The Smyrna/Cumberland area is higher density than Decatur and also most of Atlanta (aside from midtown, downtown, and Lenox). Plus, Smyrna has an almost consistent density whereas Atlanta has some very unhealthy areas that aren't even dense enough to be called suburban.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by echinatl

People have different priorities and high gas prices will influence people like me to move closer to where they work, that’s just how it is, even if you disagree.

I think a lot of people would agree that using gasoline (and other energy sources) is like burning money. The question is how does moving intown help you save gas if it takes you further away from your job in the burbs?

[echinatl]

Originally Posted by Andrea

I think a lot of people would agree that using gasoline (and other energy sources) is like burning money. The question is how does moving intown help you save gas if it takes you further away from your job in the burbs?

Is this statistic correct?
"Also, the concentration of jobs relative to the concentration of people favors the city center over the suburbs. The city contains 22% of jobs but 10% of people. The suburbs contain 90% of people but only 78% of jobs. This does not translate to people fleeing the city because most jobs are in the suburbs."

If that's true, this pretty much proves the point that most of the people that work in the suburbs already live in the suburbs. This entire argument is that gas prices will drive people to move into the central city and that stat proves that more people commute into the city than out of it. Right?

So please allow me to pose a question where the answer is obvious too! If more people drive into the city than out of it on a daily basis, why wouldn't high gas prices motivate people to want to live in the city?

[SteveD]

Originally Posted by Fiorenza

sport,

In other words, older people tend to want to move out, younger people move in.

Unless you're gay, like me. This generally doesn't follow through for gays and lesbians, of all ages, who tend to prefer in town living. As we all know, metro Atlanta has one of the nation's largest gay and lesbian populations, and while we can be found all throughout the metro, we are represented in far greater numbers inside the Perimeter. I prefer the diversity of the population, and generally more tolerant viewpoint, that I find in town, even as I advance through my 40's. I would never consider living in a far flung suburb, and I suspect there are many thousands like me in town.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by netdragon

By the way, I'd stop throwing the word "suburban" around like it's a buzzword. The Smyrna/Cumberland area is higher density than Decatur and also most of Atlanta (aside from midtown, downtown, and Lenox). Plus, Smyrna has an almost consistent density whereas Atlanta has some very unhealthy areas that aren't even dense enough to be called suburban.

What's happening in the Smyrna/Cumberland area is an excellent example of the phenomenon I’ve been talking about where suburbs becoming increasingly urbanized and sophisticated. Places like Cumberland and Perimeter are already larger employment centers than any of the four major commercial districts in Atlanta proper and they are huge magnets to people living in the surrounding areas -- including many people who live inside the Atlanta city limits.

That's one of the reasons why generalizations such as "Rising gas prices will drive people back to the city" turn out to be more complicated when you look at them closely. As I said earlier in the discussion, a more accurate statement would be, “Rising gas prices may drive people closer to their places of employment.”

For most metro Atlantans, that means closer to massive employment centers outside the city limits such as Cumberland, Perimeter, Gwinnett and the 400 corridor in North Fulton and Forsyth. For a lot of people, “moving in” means moving closer to those employment centers rather than moving inside the Atlanta city limits. In many cases living inside the city limits would take them even farther from work.

To effectively address transit in Atlanta we need to acknowledge that reality and plan accordingly. In my opinion, Atlanta will most likely grow as a series of interconnected (and perhaps increasingly distant) urban hubs, rather than as one central city surrounded by residential suburbs.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by echinatl

Is this statistic correct?
"Also, the concentration of jobs relative to the concentration of people favors the city center over the suburbs. The city contains 22% of jobs but 10% of people. The suburbs contain 90% of people but only 78% of jobs. This does not translate to people fleeing the city because most jobs are in the suburbs."

If that's true, this pretty much proves the point that most of the people that work in the suburbs already live in the suburbs. This entire argument is that gas prices will drive people to move into the central city and that stat proves that more people commute into the city than out of it. Right?

So please allow me to pose a question where the answer is obvious too! If more people drive into the city than out of it on a daily basis, why wouldn't high gas prices motivate people to want to live in the city?

Not necessarily. The cost of living in the city is probably more expensive than the increase in gas prices for people who live in the suburbs and work in the city.

Somebody mentioned that the cost of condos at ViewPoint are $400 SQF. Housing in the suburbs can be had for $200 SQF or less.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by SteveD

Unless you're gay, like me. This generally doesn't follow through for gays and lesbians, of all ages, who tend to prefer in town living. As we all know, metro Atlanta has one of the nation's largest gay and lesbian populations, and while we can be found all throughout the metro, we are represented in far greater numbers inside the Perimeter. I prefer the diversity of the population, and generally more tolerant viewpoint, that I find in town, even as I advance through my 40's. I would never consider living in a far flung suburb, and I suspect there are many thousands like me in town.

Or for liberal northern transplants like me that have an aversion to the Republican, mega church going, the world is all about me, people in the suburbs.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by echinatl

Is this statistic correct?

Yes, I'm the one who provided it.

So please allow me to pose a question where the answer is obvious too! If more people drive into the city than out of it on a daily basis, why wouldn't high gas prices motivate people to want to live in the city?

Well, it certainly could, IF people decided where to live based solely on gas prices. But as we've been saying, those decisions are typically based on a complex host of factors.

I believe most people who live in the city do so because they like living in the city, not because of gas prices.** I know that's true for me and all my city-dwelling compadres I've ever talked to about it. We are willing to put up with higher housing costs, higher taxes and, yes, in many cases longer commutes, simply because we just like being here. To me it provides a richer and more diverse living experience and to tell you the truth I don't pay much attention at all to gas prices. They're a drop in the bucket compared to the other costs of living here.


**Purely my personal anecdotal and non-statistically supported opinion.