ATLANTA TRANSIT (Marta, Beltline, Peachtree Streetcar, LovJoy Commuter, etc...)

[BabydaddyATL]

Are we forgetting something?

Single people live were they can have sex. Yes! I said, "SEX."

Closer living condition means more opportunities to procreate.

[NativeAtlantan]

Andrea, you are looking at this anecdotally and on a case-by-case basis, and I am looking at a sheer numbers/statistical analysis which, to me, pretty clearly suggests that higher gas prices will result in faster growth intown than there would be under stable gas price conditions due to the North Buckhead area being pretty much the geographic center to most of the major job centers, including:

Downtown
Midtown
Perimeter
Galleria/Cumberland
Northlake
West Atlanta
South Atlanta

Those districts FAR outweigh the sheer number of jobs in your haven of North Fulton. Yes, the north is growing faster, but, for right now, the numbers don't lie.

[NativeAtlantan]

Oh, and for as many hilbillies you know that wouldn't think of moving intown, I know just as many people who tell me they would love to live in the city but can't afford it. Well, when the playing field gets levelled more due to higher gas prices, you can sure bet that they will think harder about possibly moving intown, where they work.

Again, more people work amongst the inner ring business districts than work way out up the 75/400/85 corridors.

[NativeAtlantan]

I'd also be willing to bet that the average commute is longest for those who work in DT, MT, BH, C/G, CPD, which would also suggest that, as gas prices rise, the vacuum effect would be strongest for these folks, pulling them in closer to those areas whose aggregate geographic center is pretty much dead center buckhead or maybe slightly north of there.

[NativeAtlantan]

As gas prices get higher and higher (we're talking $7,8,9 per gallon), my argument becomes even stronger due to a more compelling argument for public transportation which will be strongest in the core. How can any sane person say this won't result in a net increase in people at the core?

The longer this goes, the more humorous it gets....c'mon Andrea, bring it! Whatcha got?

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

Those districts FAR outweigh the sheer number of jobs in your haven of North Fulton.

Well, North Fulton isn't exactly my haven. I grew up in south Atlanta and have always lived intown. But to understand Atlanta’s transit issues we have to recognize the reality of how our city has developed.

Though you suggest we have a disconnect, NativeAltantan, I honestly don't see it. Of course gasoline prices figure into peoples' thinking to some degree, and as they approach $10 a gallon it will become a more serious consideration. But under present conditions it's difficult to make a case that gas prices are the major factor driving intown growth. There's simply no evidence for that. And even when gas prices do get high enough to start influencing behaviors in significant numbers, it's equally plausible that they will drive people to locate closer to their jobs, homes, schools and shopping -- and in Atlanta the vast majority of those things are in suburbia.

It's honestly hard for me to appreciate why this seems to be upsetting you. It's not a knock on the city of Atlanta, nor is it praise to the burbs. It's just the way things are here, and it's the way things have been developing since at least WWII, if not before. How can we hope to address transit solutions unless we embrace the reality of our region?

In any event, there's little doubt that we've beaten the snot out of this discussion. I've been trying hard to keep it respectful and factual, and to learn from your excellent points as well. But referring to folks as hillbillies and to my comments as propaganda and telling me to "bring it on" makes me think we should leave this discussion alone for a while.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

As gas prices get higher and higher (we're talking $7,8,9 per gallon), my argument becomes even stronger due to a more compelling argument for public transportation which will be strongest in the core. How can any sane person say this won't result in a net increase in people at the core?

The longer this goes, the more humorous it gets....c'mon Andrea, bring it! Whatcha got?

Andrea is one of the finest ladies in this city. If you can't handle a dignified debate, then go to myspace.com. So I suggest you watch your tone.

[Andrea]

On a related note, this is an interesting article from the AJC about suburban communities developing plans to reduce reliance on cars.

The cities of Sandy Springs and Alpharetta, and the North Fulton Community Improvement District, are all adopting the ideas of Miami-based urban planner Andres Duany in creating plans that aim to reduce people's reliance on cars. Here's a snapshot of the efforts:

> Sandy Springs is developing a master plan designed to make the city a more pleasant place to walk. The hope is that people will be able to do their business and chores without relying so much on their cars. The Atlanta Regional Commission is helping with the study.

> Alpharetta is devising a plan around the North Point Mall area designed to guide its redevelopment into a more walker-friendly community. The ARC is helping with the plan. The city also is working on a plan to redevelop the historic center.

> Blueprint North Fulton is being overseen by the North Fulton Community Improvement District. Survey results released this week show strong support for the commercial district along Ga. 400 being developed into a walkable community.

[SteveD]

Living in the core also affords the reverse commute. Time is worth far more than gas and that will always be the case. It's much easier to get to the perimeter, for example, from downtown, than it is from some suburb 7 or 8 miles away from it.

[Andrea]

I agree. Time is also a much bigger factor for me than the cost of gas.

[NativeAtlantan]

BabyDaddy - thanks for putting me in my place. Shoulda used a smiley - those always make things better ;-)

[NativeAtlantan]

Andrea, I know you are near Sarah Smith and all that and have lived here all your life....been reading your posts for 2 1/2 years now, remember....

I just don't agree with your perception of "how things are". My observations are that gas prices MOST definitely weigh in people's minds which leads to a NET increase in in-migration. Sure, not everyone's doing it but my point is that more people are doing it than the reverse, which would be moving OUT of the city due to higher prices.

This is what's upsetting me because it's obvious you aren't making any effort whatsoever trying to understand my argument.

You either can only take one of two sides here:

1) Higher gas prices result in more intown growth
2) Higher gas prices result in reduced intown growth (population decline if growth under stable-gas-price scenario equals zero)

There's no in-between or 3rd choice, it's you either believe #1 or you believe #2, because any "scientist" would agree that there will be some impact, one way or the other.

So, to decide which side of the argument you are on, you would have to ask the following question:

What force is stronger (excluding folks who both live intown and work intown) - folks who live intown and work "outtown" or folks who live "outtown" and work intown. I think hopefully we would all agree that this would be the overwhelming factor in determining which "direction" higher gas prices would drive the majority of relocations around the city - work location vs home location.

This whole time you're argument has been for #2 (intown growth decline due to higher prices), which I just can't convince myself that you really believe that higher gas prices will cause reduced growth, or in a time of no-growth, population intown to decline. That's my frustration.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

BabyDaddy - thanks for putting me in my place. Shoulda used a smiley - those always make things better ;-)

No problem NativeAtlantan.

Remember - we are all here because we love our city! So we are ALL on the same TEAM.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

Andrea, I know you are near Sarah Smith and all that and have lived here all your life....been reading your posts for 2 1/2 years now, remember....

I just don't agree with your perception of "how things are". My observations are that gas prices MOST definitely weigh in people's minds which leads to a NET increase in in-migration. Sure, not everyone's doing it but my point is that more people are doing it than the reverse, which would be moving OUT of the city due to higher prices.

This is what's upsetting me because it's obvious you aren't making any effort whatsoever trying to understand my argument.

You either can only take one of two sides here:

1) Higher gas prices result in more intown growth
2) Higher gas prices result in reverse intown growth (population decline)

There's no in-between or 3rd choice, it's you either believe #1 or you believe #2, because any "scientist" would agree that there will be some impact, one way or the other.

So, to decide which side of the argument you are on, you would have to ask the following question:

What force is stronger (excluding folks who both live intown and work intown) - folks who live intown and work "outtown" or folks who live "outtown" and work intown. I think hopefully we would all agree that this would be the overwhelming factor in determining which "direction" higher gas prices would drive the majority of relocations around the city - work location vs home location.

This whole time you're argument has been for #2 (intown decline due to higher prices), which I just can't convince myself that you really believe that higher gas prices will cause the population intown to decline. That's my frustration.

I think I want to chime in -

1. Consumers view higher gas prices as a temporary action. Gas is a commodity and wildly spikes to the upside and downside over the short term, but are fairly static over the long term.

2. The % that consumers spend on gas for transportation is probably their least costly expense. Home, food and heating/cooling costs command a higher % of consumers monthly expenses.

3. Housing cost and property taxes factor a lot more into consumer sentiment than gas prices. You have to agree that taxes and home prices are cheaper in the suburbs.

4. Consumers will change their discretionary buying habits in response to higher gas prices. It does not make economic sense to move in town because gas prices are higher, if you already live in the suburbs.

In my opinion, living in the city is a lifestyle choice, not an economic choice. The reason for more people living in Atlanta's core is because of demographics. Atlanta is attracting younger people and younger people are more inclined to live in the city.

[ATLaffinity]

where you live is a pretty "sticky" (ie inelastic) choice, as opposed to where you shop or where you take a vacation. you don't say "Gas is up 70 cents. Let's sell the place, pack up, get a new mortgage, move..."

maybe a small percentage of newcomers will want to be intown due to gas prices, but it's still not NYC where you walk to everything you need. i think commute time is a larger factor.

to me, commuting is mentally and physically damaging. people are waking up to that.

[Andrea]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

You either can only take one of two sides here:

1) Higher gas prices result in more intown growth
2) Higher gas prices result in reduced intown growth (population decline if growth under stable-gas-price scenario equals zero)

There's no in-between or 3rd choice, it's you either believe #1 or you believe #2, because any "scientist" would agree that there will be some impact, one way or the other.

NativeAtlantan, there is a third choice, and that is that gas prices (in metro Atlanta) will not have much effect on intown growth. I DO believe there will be continued intown growth, for reasons such as those mentioned by BabydaddyATL, but it's not at all clear that this relates to gasoline prices.

IF high-paying jobs were predominantly intown, and IF they were migrating intown, then yes, I'd say the price of gas is likely to eventually influence people to move closer to work.

That’s not the case here. In Atlanta, the high-paying jobs are not predominately intown and the trend -- even despite significant rises in gas prices in recent years -- has been for them to continue moving out of town. If there is a significant effect from gas prices, and if that effect is to make people want to live closer to work, school and shopping, isn’t it just as likely that higher gas prices will pull people closer to these suburban centers rather than moving into the Atlanta city limits? (If you have data to the contrary it would be interesting to see it).

As I've said (and as BabydaddyATL points out), where people choose to live is an extremely complex decision, based on many variables, not all of which are economic. For one thing, the higher cost of housing intown far outweighs the price of gas. You've also got issues regarding schools, which are about as near and dear to people as you can get. There are issues of taxation and perceptions regarding crime. A lot of people just think intown living is "too crowded," (whatever that means). And, I am sorry to say, race is still an issue -- Atlanta continues to have an extremely high level of residential segregation.

Do gas prices figure into where people decide to live? Sure, I’ve said that from the beginning. In a place like Atlanta, however -- where the largest employment centers, the largest shopping areas, lower housing costs, lower taxes and the bulk of the best schools are located outside the city – do gas prices translate into a movement into the city limits?

In my opinion – and I will readily admit it’s only my opinion -- the effect of gas prices on the choice of where to live is moderated and/or offset by a number of other factors of much greater importance.

[NativeAtlantan]

This isn't about other factors....it's about isolating the one variable: gas price.

You guys are dancing more than Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers.

[BabydaddyATL]

Originally Posted by NativeAtlantan

This isn't about other factors....it's about isolating the one variable: gas price.

You guys are dancing more than Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers.

Since when does a person isolate one factor when they make ANY decision? Just deciding what I want for Breakfast involves a criteria of more than 20 variables.

NativeAtlantan's Decision Tree on Where to Live
1. Gas Prices

Everyone Else
1. Home Prices
2. Taxes
3. Schools
4. Crime
5. Yard Size
6. Home size
7. Gas Prices

Sorry...I'm being a smartass.

Furthermore - If you are right about gas prices being the only factor in deciding where you live, why is our metro growing more than 100,000 people a year and the City of Atlanta only adding 10-15,000 people a year? I'll give you a hint - people don't give two craps about gas prices when they decide where they live.

[NativeAtlantan]

I think you're putting too much weight in the "high paying jobs" point. Everyone who works in a place other than their home has to transport themselves there, regardless of their wage grade.

Intown living for renters become much more viable as gas prices go up because it puts the cost of living further out on the same level as living intown. If you work intown, then it would have to be more of a consideration.

Also, BabyDaddy, I don't think you realize how much people are spending on gasoline. I know many people who spend more on gas than each of the following:

- groceries
- utilities
- property taxes
- entertainment

One guy I work with who lives in Alpharetta and works at the Perimeter was telling folks that his gas expense is beginning to creap up towards $1000 per month. Well, I did some calculating - he works at Perimeter center and his wife works in Buckhead. They both drive SUVs, which is pretty common. $1000 per month, assuming 18 mpg and $3.75 per gallon, would imply that they are both averaging more than 20,000 mi per year, which I guess is reasonable given there commutes, but they're probably driving a lot on the weekends, too, shopping, entertainment, etc.

So I don't see how you can say it isn't as much of a consideration.

I agree that where prices are right now, it's not going to convince a significant number of people to all the sudden pack up and move but for those who know they are moving anyway, I think the intown option becomes more viable, as gas prices rise, which, by the way, is the long term trend. Since the commonly accepted trend is that gas prices are only going to get worse, not better, than it just has to play a role for those who are choosing where to live. If you're already settled, then, yes, I agree it hasn't necessarily become compelling enough, yet, but remember this discussion is about effect of rising gas prices, not where prices are at the moment.

[NativeAtlantan]

Babydaddy, I didn't say it's the only factor. This all started with someone saying rising gas prices would lead to higher intown growth. Then, Andrea said that was an incorrect statement. Then when she said that, I HAD to jump in because, eventhough it may not be huge, I do think rising gas prices, when looked at in isolation, would result in higher intown growth than stable gas prices.

So, if you've just tuned in, the question of the day is:

"For the City of Atlanta, specifically, would it be reasonable to say that, as gas prices rise, intown growth accelerates or decelerates, all other factors remaining constant?"