The Official Saint John, NB Project Thread

[kwajo]

Bracing for the boom
Renaissance Study showing Saint John area energy mega-projects will be an influx of work and wealth for entire province
Telegraph-Journal
Published Friday April 4th, 2008
Appeared on page A1
SAINT JOHN - A new study predicts the looming energy boom will create 33,000 jobs and inject more than $44 billion into the New Brunswick economy, the Telegraph-Journal has learned.

The study, to be released at a news conference in Fredericton today, paints a portrait of a province on the cusp of an unparalleled economic renaissance - if it is properly prepared to cope with the myriad of issues the boom will present.

A renowned consultant who specializes in preparing communities to handle the demands of sudden and spectacular growth has presented government and community leaders with detailed data on how he expects the Saint John will be transformed.

Premier Shawn Graham, federal cabinet minister Greg Thompson and other dignitaries will be at the University of New Brunswick today as highlights from the findings from David Hardy, president of Hardy Stephenson and Associates, a Toronto consulting firm which specializes in studying the impact of large-scale economic projects.

The release of the main findings is expected to kick-start work by local, provincial and federal officials in preparing the Saint John area for the sudden influx of work and wealth.

Bob Manning, the chairman of both Enterprise Saint John and the Benefits Blueprint project helping to prepare the city for growth, says the study shows that energy mega-projects will be a boon to the entire province but work must begin without haste in preparing for it.

"It is very obvious that this is something that can benefit all New Brunswickers," Manning said Thursday while briefing the Telegraph-Journal editorial board. "Now it's imperative that we move forward with execution."

While Manning and other officials involved would not speak publicly to any details in the study, the consultant examined the impact that will be made by energy projects now underway or on the drawing board for the Saint John area: the liquefied natural gas plant and pipeline, the reburbishment of the Point Lepreau nuclear reactor, the new potash mine in the Sussex area, and a possible second refinery.

Hardy said a team of economists used standard economic formulas to calculate that 33,000 jobs will be created. That number includes direct jobs, indirect jobs (parts suppliers, etc) and induced jobs (restaurants, laundry facilities, etc).

Growth doesn't come without challenges, he said. That's why the Benefits Blueprint will focus on seven core areas: poverty issues, training and education, business and supplier development, infrastructure, arts and culture, workforce planning and housing.

It's no secret that communities facing a boom have challenges, but most communities aren't proactive about addressing them, Hardy said.

"Most large projects are kind of behind the curve," Hardy said. But this plan is very integrated, he said. "It's one of the very best I've seen."

The plan is an attempt by community leaders to help Saint John prepare for the future, a boom that will see challenges such as increased demand for child care, a housing crunch, increases in crime and prostitution and a demand for training and educational options.

By planning ahead and preparing for the challenges, we can mitigate most risks, Hardy said.

The looming labour shortage is an issue that will likely be addressed in detail the recommendations laid out by the Benefits Blueprint.

A member of the working committee with the Benefits Blueprint, Randy Hatfield of the Human Development Council, said that the recommendations regarding communities are excellent. "We know there are certain social issues that flow from super-heated economies that are large-project based," he said.

"This has identified the issues and given us a blueprint. It has identified the huge windfall to the government with taxation. To go forward will require political will."

Energy Minister Jack Keir said he commissioned the report because of the huge impact energy will have on the whole province. "This is a provincial opportunity, not just a southern New Brunswick opportunity. We don't want to leave anybody behind. There's more to this than just economic development opportunities, there's social development opportunities that we don't want to lose either."

And I bet people will still think we're all on EI here in Atlantic Canada

[random11]

Originally Posted by kwajo

And I bet people will still think we're all on EI here in Atlantic Canada

er .. no .. we all fish here 4 months of the year and EI the other 8 ..

[nwalbert]

Wow, this is one of the first articles I have seen that summarizes the economic and social impact that all of these projects combined could potentially have on the city. The numbers are mind boggling to such a small community. Looking at 33,000 new jobs and considering that most workers will bring families with them, you could be looking at as many as 50,000 people coming into the city in the next 3-7 years which would almost double the population.

The city and province are going to have some huge challenges ahead to deal with such a mammoth explosion. It is good to see that the planning has started already.

[Helladog]

I have to pick up some real estate when I'm finished school before the prices soar any further.

Chill-o-wack made a partial retraction today about the STJ building but you had to look close to see it. He put most of the blame on Metro Transit and still had the gall to defend the same position.

[random11]

Originally Posted by Helladog

I have to pick up some real estate when I'm finished school before the prices soar any further.

Chill-o-wack made a partial retraction today about the STJ building but you had to look close to see it. He put most of the blame on Metro Transit and still had the gall to defend the same position.

Yeh, I saw that. I was thinking though that while he has been on a tear about the new Transit facility, he was incredibly quiet when the project first started. He had the same info all of us had - he only started to make noise as of late (about the same time Bob Manning, Chairman of Enterprise Saint John) made some grumbles because his wife owns a business directly behind where the Transit development is going. I noticed 2 front page pics of Mr. Manning in the TJ today. Coincidence? Who knows ..

[Seely32]

Let's hope with a possible expansion of 20,00 to 50,00 in the next decade or sooner we can get some new flights as well as taller condos uptown. We should be building up instead of out.

[Seely32]

One more thing I also saw today that the building on somerset is to be called somerset square. There is also a rendering of the building at the site with my comp mia and my camera non-compatable with my mac, someone should drive by and take some pics any takers??

[mmmatt]

where do they get 33,000 jobs from?

New Refinery - 1000
LNG - 50
New Reactor - 500 maybe?

thats 1550...how many new suppliers and resturants do you need for 2000 new people? Id say that would be another 500 jobs max...so all in all its no more than 3000 new jobs that I can see...am I missing something?

[SJTOKO]

Originally Posted by stu_pendousmat2

where do they get 33,000 jobs from?

New Refinery - 1000
LNG - 50
New Reactor - 500 maybe?

thats 1550...how many new suppliers and resturants do you need for 2000 new people? Id say that would be another 500 jobs max...so all in all its no more than 3000 new jobs that I can see...am I missing something?

"Hardy said a team of economists used standard economic formulas to calculate that 33,000 jobs will be created. That number includes direct jobs, indirect jobs (parts suppliers, etc) and induced jobs (restaurants, laundry facilities, etc)."

Office Jobs for Repsol, Irving, Canadian Nuclear Power, NB Power, Lawyers, CR's so on and so forth, There are going to be a LOT of white collar workers coming to the city, people tend to forget about that..

[SJTOKO]

Originally Posted by SJTOKO

"Hardy said a team of economists used standard economic formulas to calculate that 33,000 jobs will be created. That number includes direct jobs, indirect jobs (parts suppliers, etc) and induced jobs (restaurants, laundry facilities, etc)."

Office Jobs for Repsol, Irving, Canadian Nuclear Power, NB Power, Lawyers, CR's so on and so forth, There are going to be a LOT of white collar workers coming to the city, people tend to forget about that..

2012 - Saint John City Proper - 125,000
CMA - 210,000

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by SJTOKO

"Hardy said a team of economists used standard economic formulas to calculate that 33,000 jobs will be created. That number includes direct jobs, indirect jobs (parts suppliers, etc) and induced jobs (restaurants, laundry facilities, etc)."

Office Jobs for Repsol, Irving, Canadian Nuclear Power, NB Power, Lawyers, CR's so on and so forth, There are going to be a LOT of white collar workers coming to the city, people tend to forget about that..

30,000 of those office jobs though? That seems a bit steep, but I guess they know what they are talking about.

[Wrightguy0]

not just office, but retail, doctors, teachers, hotel staff, police, firemen, civil engineers, bus drivers, blue collar support industries, contractors, vets, janitors, dentists, and yes as mentioned, white collar professionals, oh and don't forget their families. all this equals is positive growth.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by Wrightguy0

not just office, but retail, doctors, teachers, hotel staff, police, firemen, civil engineers, bus drivers, blue collar support industries, contractors, vets, janitors, dentists, and yes as mentioned, white collar professionals, oh and don't forget their families. all this equals is positive growth.

I'm inclined to agree with Mat on this one. 33,000 new people would be great for the province, but I really doubt that number is at all realistic. The stats just don't add up.

Say 3,000 jobs are created by these mega projects. That would mean for every job created, there would be ten jobs created to service it across all sectors of the economy. Using that same logic, when Irving opened it's diaper factory in Moncton, the 100 jobs it created would have meant 1100 new jobs total, which would have knocked the unemployment rate down by more than a percent. Crazy.

It doesn't fit with all the growth projections either. The population growth secretariat is projecting 25,000 more people in the province by midway through the next decade, and just about everybody thinks that estimate is sky-high. Following that, every person moving to the province (and then some) would have to settle in Saint John exclusively. I know how some of you SJ guys like to rag against Moncton's time being over, but Moncton's growth isn't slowing by any means either. So that doesn't add up.

Just yesterday, NB Power released their population growth statistics (to justify their rate hikes). According to the CBC, they're required by law to be as truthful and accurate as possible. They were projecting ZERO net growth in the province over the same period as the Population Growth Secretariat, and they're just as aware of the projects on the table as everyone else is.

33,000 people = great, but not going to happen any time soon.

2012 - Saint John City Proper - 125,000
CMA - 210,000

Dear god, man. Growth like that would be catastrophic. That's one of the biggest problems with fort MacMurray. Planners just can't keep up with the high rate of growth.

[random11]

I think that specific numbers are practically impossible to nail down to a science however, one cannot argue that the spin off jobs will, without a doubt, be in the thousands. I believe that the primary purpose of this exercise is to prepare New Brunswick, primarily Southern New Brunswick, for what is to come. The intent of the study is to create awareness, specifically to the Provincial Government, that big change is coming very soon and regardless of the exact numbers - which we can debate about forever - a solid, concrete plan needs to be developed, implimented and brought forth to ensure that the region is as prepared as possible to address the scores of concerns that will ensue - so that we will avert as many issues as possible such as what Fort McMurray is dealing with as I type.

It's no secret that communities facing a boom have challenges, but most communities aren't proactive about addressing them, Hardy said.

"Most large projects are kind of behind the curve," Hardy said. But this plan is very integrated, he said. "It's one of the very best I've seen."

By planning ahead and preparing for the challenges, we can mitigate most risks, Hardy said.


I highlighted these comments as I feel they reflect the basic intent of the study. If we keep our eye on the ball it is easier to understand the focus. Numbers can be debated for months. Truly, nobody can forecast an "exact" number.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by Seely32

Let's hope with a possible expansion of 20,00 to 50,00 in the next decade or sooner we can get some new flights as well as taller condos uptown. We should be building up instead of out.

We definitely need more flights NOW. I travel for business on almost a weekly basis throughout the US and Internationally and it is becoming extremely difficult to get flights in/out Saint John at convenient times. I would not be at all surprised to see both a New England flight and more domestic flights start at the SJ Airport.

[nwalbert]

I think you also need to take into consideration the enormous amounts of spinoff that projects like this can create. The construction phases of the refinery alone will require 7000 skilled high paid workers. While many of those workers will not remain, their funds will be spent here in our economy which will spur on other development and growth. Although it is difficult for us to imagine 33,000 jobs when you start looking at the dollar amounts associated with these projects it begins to make sense.

As someone else mentioned, the potential to become like Ft. McMurray is a possibility which is why it is so encouraging to see some of the business/political leaders thinking about these problems now.

[random11]

Quentin Casey
Telegraph-Journal
Published Saturday April 5th, 2008
Appeared on page A1

FREDERICTON - Roughly $1.4 billion is needed to brace New Brunswick for both the benefits and pitfalls that will arrive with a slew of Saint John energy projects, says a report issued by government and industry boosters Friday.

Funded by the province, federal government and Irving Oil Limited, the Benefits Blueprint report lists 16 recommendations - aimed to ensure billions in development dollars don't overwhelm the province.

The report states that up to $19 billion worth of energy projects are either underway or close to fruition.

Those include a new liquefied natural gas terminal and pipeline, the refurbishment of the Point Lepreau nuclear generating station, a possible second oil refinery and a potential second nuclear unit at Lepreau.

According to the report, such development could mean up to $44 billion in spending, 33,000 jobs, and $14.2 billion in tax revenue over 10 years.

But with such rosy figures comes a warning: immediate funds are needed to ensure social, cultural and environmental elements blossom along with the economy.

"It's a good news story, but it's not guaranteed," said Bob Manning, chairman of both the panel and Enterprise Saint John.

"While governments grant permits to big projects, it is the communities themselves that grant permission."

Some of the report's recommendations include: better worker recruitment, additional child care services, assistance for poor neighbourhoods, and road, water and sewage upgrades.

Also suggested are more housing options, a construction program at Saint John's community college, an environmental stewardship committee, health care improvements and a museum or art gallery of national significance.

The panel pegs the cost of such initiatives at less than 10 per cent of the $14 billion in tax revenue that will be generated over the next decade.

The province, Ottawa and industry have committed to sharing the fiscal burden equally.

Greg Thompson, who represents New Brunswick in the federal Conservative cabinet, stressed the need to repatriate New Brunswickers to fill new jobs.

"We have to make sure we have the people - our own people - to do the work that lies ahead," he said.

"We want to make sure we reap the benefits of our own growth."

Premier Shawn Graham said any upfront costs would be more than recouped in future tax earnings.

"We will be able to fulfill these obligations and more," he said.

If done right, the coming projects will lead to more development, said the province's energy minister, Jack Keir.

"These projects are only the beginning of a long and better future for all of us. Success breeds success," said Keir, the minister responsible for implementing the plan. "Every region and community in the province will benefit from this growth."

Donald Savoie, an economic development expert at the Université de Moncton, applauded the report.

He said the proposed projects are essential for a province looking to improve its financial footing.

Though the initial costs may be high, Savoie said the province has no choice but to invest.

"I don't think we can afford not to do it," he said. "It's good for all parts of the province. Let's go for it. We don't often get these types of projects."

David Coon, of the Conservation Council of New Brunswick, says the report largely overlooks one major element of the coming boom: the rise of greenhouse gas emissions.

Coon says industrial emissions will soon be regulated and attached to some form of tax or levy, which will mean another major cost for developers.

"That should have been examined in the context of this report," he said. "It seems quite puzzling that it wasn't - given the significance of these projects."

[Alberta Bound]

Saint John needs its own Eiffel Tower
Telegraph-Journal
Published Saturday April 5th, 2008
Saint John needs to create an iconic cultural landmark - not as grand, but as widely recognizable as the CN Tower, Sydney Opera House, Eiffel Tower or Tower Bridge, says the consultant behind a blueprint on economic growth.

It's all the better if that landmark erases the city's longstanding and unflattering image as a blue-collar, smokestack town, argues Dave Hardy of Hardy Stevenson and Associates.

"It needs to be a signature destination and really iconic to change people's views about the city," he said.

The landmark should "act as a catalyst for cultural activity; attract and retain executives and increase tourism; and help celebrate the heritage culture of the region," says Hardy's report, which gives 16 recommendations for optimizing the benefits from the mega-projects on the horizon.

His consulting firm looked at the impact of good examples elsewhere of signature landmarks, but does not recommend any specific options for Saint John - other than the suggestion whatever's proposed take advantage of the city's coastal setting and maritime identity.

Hardy suggested the search for specific proposals become the subject of broad public consultations.

His report envisions this project eventually involving the federal and provincial governments.

A large, modern and unique marine aquarium/discovery centre would get my vote. This is something that is lacking on the east coast. Maybe I am off the mark of what they are suggesting but I don't think Saint John needs a butt ugly landmark tower.

[kwajo]

Originally Posted by Alberta Bound

I don't think Saint John needs a butt ugly landmark tower.

...........

[ErickMontreal]

It seem they want to change people mind about SJ and its industrial blue-collar image, then explain me why they support a refenery ? You could built whatever you want to make-up people mind, a new refinery wont help to change the realty .