LONDON | Project Compilation Thread

[jef]

Originally Posted by wjfox2004

Doesn't change the fact that LBT, Pinnacle, Heron, Leadenhall, Riverside South, Beetham, St George's Wharf, Merchant Square, Strata, tons of other midrises... are all pretty much certain to go ahead.

I am more concerned about the timing of the development pipeline. For example it is obvious BL is not in a rush to build the Leadenhall Building. Initially demolition was due to be completed by April...

Initially basement works at Riverside South should have started this month as you know...We are a long way off. And they won't be built spec. They will complete below ground works to enable speed of delivery and wait for a prelet.

Same with 25 CP and Arrowhead which were initially due to be built speculatively. It has now emerged they will complete basements and wait for a prelet.

Regarding the Shard and Pinnacle the contracts have not yet been signed to build them. And these arab investors are financiers, not property developers like BL or CW, withlittle or no experience in London.

The two other large-scale developments I was interested in, Wallbrook Place and 20 Fenchurch Street have been delayed or could even been scrapped...

We are going to see a lot of cleared site in London next year ... that's my thinking.

[jef]

...

[ismail]

Originally Posted by jef

I am more concerned about the timing of the development pipeline. For example it is obvious BL is not in a rush to build the Leadenhall Building. Initially demolition was due to be completed by April...

Initially basement works at Riverside South should have started this month as you know...We are a long way off. And they won't be built spec. They will complete below ground works to enable speed of delivery and wait for a prelet.

Same with 25 CP and Arrowhead which were initially due to be built speculatively. It has now emerged they will complete basements and wait for a prelet.

Regarding the Shard and Pinnacle the contracts have not yet been signed to build them. And these arab investors are financiers, not property developers like BL or CW, withlittle or no experience in London.

The two other large-scale developments I was interested in, Wallbrook Place and 20 Fenchurch Street have been delayed or could even been scrapped...

We are going to see a lot of cleared site in London next year ... that's my thinking.

The positive thinking Jef we miss on Skyscrapercity...!!!!!

On the news front ...Sadly the Beetham Tower in London has been called in for a PI

[jef]

Ballymore has communicated they put on hold Phase 2 of its development at Crossharbour/Baltimore Wharf

Construction on the residential tower and the office/hotel elements was initially due to start in early 2008.

This is the third consecutive setback in the Docklands, with both 25 Churchill Place, Arrowhead and now Baltimore Wharf put on hold due to the lack of office demand and massive office surplus put back on the market by large investment banks.

[jef]

... and a fourth setback: Bear Stearns, one of the largest US Investment Bank, has just confirmed it needs new massive funding to avoid bankrupcty. JP Morgan and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have provided the investment bank with emergency short term funding. Alan Schwartz, the bank’s president and chief executive, said in a short statement today: "The company can make no assurance that any strategic alternatives" to fund itself in the long term "will be successfully completed


The future of iBear Stearsn new European HQ under construction in Canary Wharf is ... extremely bleak. We will know within the next 28 days whether this building will eventually stand empty or no.

[jef]

Times:
Bear Stearns: Fear now stalking the corridors of Canary Wharf headquarters
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3556387.ece
A further 1,370 jobs to be cut in Canary Wharf would Bear Stearns collapse.

From its headquarters at One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, it had planned to expand its operations in London, where it lags most of its competitors, and the workforce was set to double to more than 2,500 in the next few years. Yesterday, however, those proposals hung in the balance. It has also agreed to move to 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf in mid-2009 but now that too is uncertain.

[jef]

Bear Stearns, the fifth largest US bank, is over. JP Morgan has agreed to buy the company under Fed Pressure .... for a symbobic 1£ per share. BS shares peaked at 169$ last year and closed down at 30$ on Friday after its CEO warned of imminent collapse. JP Morgan announced many of its 14,000 employees will be laid off.

Bear Stearns was due to move into its new European Headquarters that is under construction at 5 Churchill Place.

[wjfox2004]

Today's Evening Standard has Boris Johnson on 49% versus Ken Livingstone on 37% of 1st preferences, with the mayoral election just over a month away. Kiss goodbye to virtually every skyscraper that was planned for the next property cycle - mark my words, NONE of them will be built if Johnson gets into power, except maybe a couple in the Docklands.

[NBTD]

^^ If they have planning permission i don't think there is much he can do. Funding/Finding Tennants may be an issue that would stop anything getting built, but Borris can't actually take back permission once its been given (not only would it require a change in planning law, but i'm sure it would also cost millions to compensate the developers - Londoners wont like that).

But he would certainly widen the viewing corridors and make it much harder for any future proposals to get through....we'll be seeing a hell of a lot more fat, stubbie monsters if Borris gets in.

[Minato Ku]

No way, I hope that Boris Johnson will never be the mayor of London.

[jef]

I am not concerned about this because we face a more important problem: The US economy is in recession - the worst since WW2 according to Alan Greesnpan - and it may well take years for the banking and property sector, especially in NYC and London, to recover. In other words we won't see much activity anyway.

The outlook for the skyscrapers community in London is abyssal, really. Even at British Land and Canary Wharf people are getting extremely nervous with shares down 60% in a year and more to follow.

[Newcastle Kid]

Well, at least the Shard will be built, and I expect that won't be the only one.

[chest]

things like this always happen - I'm certainly not going to loose any sleep over it. I remember going to Bangkok and seeing half finished skeletons of towers with no finance littered across the city...now look at Bangkok - incredible.

Surely of all the major towers planned for London some will go up..Isnt the Pinnacle financed by hundreds of small investors all putting in around £1m-3m so the risk is tiny. The Shard - isn't the finance finalised for this. Heron - the same. My favorite - Strata hasn't this sold out and now under construction? Also 122 Leadenhall - didn't BL commit to this 2 weeks ago and now work 7 days a week on it - check out the new news letter posted in ssc.

[Newcastle Kid]

Originally Posted by jef

The future of iBear Stearsn new European HQ under construction in Canary Wharf is ... extremely bleak. We will know within the next 28 days whether this building will eventually stand empty or no.

It has now been confirmed that JPMorgan will take the building on, they are tied into the lease. So no bother for Canary Wharf

Story over at SSC.

[jef]

Originally Posted by Newcastle Kid

It has now been confirmed that JPMorgan will take the building on, they are tied into the lease. So no bother for Canary Wharf

Story over at SSC.

They have yet to decide - story in the Financial Times. Apparently 500 jobs will be cut.

Overall that would mean 1500 job losses at Bear Stearns / CW alone.

[jef]

Originally Posted by chest

Isnt the Pinnacle financed by hundreds of small investors all putting in around £1m-3m so the risk is tiny. The Shard - isn't the finance finalised for this. Heron - the same.

The banking sector is currently reviewing terms and conditions of large commercial deals. I presume private investors are also reassessing the risks associated to large funding deals.

Regarding the Shard and the Pinnacle the contracts have not been signed. We are a long way off construction anyway, if they are ever built. We will receive some details of the development programme in due time I presume.

As far as I know there are 3 large deals (+100,000 sqft) about to be concluded in Central London. But the medium term outlook remains bleak. I said on ssc in the years 2005-2006 I expected at most 2-3 skyscrapers (150m+) to be built by 2012 given the widely anticipated downturn. I still stick to this opinion. But it is only my opinion.

[ismail]

Jef,

You keep saying this about the Shard, but there is no way this is not going to be built, The steel contract has been signed, the foundation contract has been signed, and the winner of the concrete tender is due out this month.
Go have a look at the site, it has MACE posted all over it.
Re Pinnacle, you under estimate the power of Arab investors, these guys take risks like building Burg Dubai on spec build, they will not back out.
The Heron tower even has an official opening date (11/02/2011).

Yes I agree 20 FC may be delayed, but not for long, and other smaller ones which are at planning stage or approved but not started, such as 100 Bishopsgate and the planned Broadgate expansion will be put on hold.

BL are on schedule with the Leadenhall building, check the constrution timetable in the official planning document.


Come on man be positive...!!!

[jef]

Originally Posted by ismail

Come on man be positive...!!!

I am realistic.

[jef]

Ballymore will submit a revised planning application for Phase 2 of its Baltimore Wharf scheme - that includes the residential tower. This phase is on hold at the moment.

[ismail]

Originally Posted by jef

Ballymore will submit a revised planning application for Phase 2 of its Baltimore Wharf scheme - that includes the residential tower. This phase is on hold at the moment.

Any idea what the revision will be?
Perhaps more residential less office?