Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldfinger
It's important to note that those buildings have filled up at the expense of other older buildings in the city. There are huge vacancy problems on older buildings in London right now and the market is very soft as I have seen from the last few sales of buildings. My understanding from the Real Estate community there is that London, much like Hamilton is not a city of condo dwellers. Detached Housing is still affordable, abundant and there is no gridlock problems like we have in the GTA. The market for condos in both cities is limited.
That may change if Hamilton were to get all day GO train service. But until that happens, it's status quo.
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The viability of this project is something which has been questioned here only in murmurs and generally for reasons other than the health of the condo market in Hamilton. I think we need to consider this issue more seriously.
Goldfinger's post implicitly makes the argument that there must be a reason to build condos in order for a robust condo market to exist. In Hamilton I think people have chosen the condo option largely for reasons of convenience. In much larger cities like Toronto and Vancouver, people choose condos for much more compelling reasons - primarily because detached housing in the central city is prohibitively expensive, coupled with the fact that most people find the prospect of a very long commute extremely distasteful.
The simple truth of the matter is that we don't face these problems in Hamilton. High quality detached housing is in relatively vast supply at relatively affordable prices. It is certainly possible for a young couple in Hamilton to buy a detached house in a good neighbourhood at a reasonable price even before they reach the age of 30. This is not possible in a city like Toronto.
I don't see how GO service will necessarily increase the demand for condos in Hamilton. Presumably all day GO service will attract more commuters who might otherwise take up residence in Burlington or Mississauga, but if they are attracted to Hamilton it will probably be because of the large stock of detached quality homes which we have on offer. No one is going to come to Hamilton to live in a condo when there are so many already available in Mississauga, a much shorter commute to downtown TO. Obviously, an influx of people into Hamilton will drive up the price of homes, thus perhaps making condos a necessity for some, but this is a long term consideration.
Quite honestly, without meaning to be a naysayer, I think a strong argument can be made that the Hamilton market simply cannot support a project of the size proposed by Stinson. I do hope I am wrong, though.