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I think moving ahead with this project is a reflection on the strength of the Pearl District and the Central City. I"m glad at least someone has a positive view.
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It very well may be that the condo market will be in full force in 2010, but it's also very ballsy to speculate such things with projects that cost 60 million dollars. Make no mistake that the risk to these projects are significant in the current market. That's why Joe Weston is shelving the Cosmopolitan and the Manhattan towers for now.
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I think moving ahead with this project is a reflection on the strength of the Pearl District and the Central City. I"m glad at least someone has a positive view.
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Building a 19-story building that includes uses the market doesn't currently support certainly indicates someone's positive view, but I don't agree that pure speculation is a reflection of strength in the housing market.
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There are tons of great sites surrounding the central city for 2-4 story redevelopment that makes sense. I believe that most of this low density development doesn't make sense for the central city.
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I think we'll see a lot of this type of development. The retail market is still pretty good. Robert Sacks and Allied Works are hopping 405 to occupy a three-story building in Goose Hollow, The Ace Hotel and the American Apparel Building (also owned by Sacks) are great examples of low-rise redevelopment. It looks like the bathhouse block will be a low-rise redevelopment. I think the market will support what Brad and the Naitos are doing in Old Town: a nice mix of Class-B office and retail. And there may well be some larger Class-A office towers in the CBD.
It's not as if developers just wing on this projects. They have to go through extensive feasibility studies and appraisals just to get a loan. They definitely know the market.