LOS ANGELES | Downtown Project Rundown 3.0 - Page 144

k3d · #**2861** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 1:39 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by danparker276

Prices have already dropped 10%. Probably if you really bargin it down 15%, so 30% is not that far away. I just see some of those 2 bedrooms for 1.2-1.4mil as way overpriced.

I have been watching the MLS for Downtown LA and I have not found more than 1 or 2 downward prices changes in South Park for a 2 bedroom in the last 3-4 months. That's not to say that the closing price hasn't dropped some, maybe 10%. I have seen a few drops at Eastern and more at 1100 Wilshire but not for Elleven, Luma or Skylofts. I think the Eastern and 1100 Wilshire drops were based on appeal and location more than a downward market.

ladowntowner · #**2862** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 2:53 AM**

MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
Interest rate 'freeze' - the real story is fraud

The opinion piece linked above is by and large quite off topic here but an interesting tidbit from it that's relevent to the ongoing price slide discussion:

"In October, Goldman Sachs issued a report forecasting an incredible 35 to 40 percent drop in California home prices in the coming few years."

Granted, Downtown maybe somewhat of a "special" market, or so we all like to think here, however with the subprime fiasco and all of it's attendant economic shockwaves that will make themselves felt in the near future, I'd say nowhere is immune. Truly scary stuff, folks.

RuFFy · #**2863** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 3:13 AM**

DanParker and LADowntowner. I just wanted to say that I like to think nothing could happen, but deep down inside it freaks me out. And I agree, why does a 30 percent drop seen unreal? Looking at www.zillow.com at random homes and the drop they've taken in just the last 30 days is very concerning. I can't imagine being one of those homeowners that are seeing their investment slip away, and I'm fearful for those that could potentially come. Seeing graphs of each homes value over 10 years provides a visual of how fast property values have increased and my mind tells me, "What goes up, must come down." =T

edluva · #**2864** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 6:26 AM**

forget our downtown market. if that happened, our economy could be in shambles. and it makes me shudder to think of a worst case scenario - a reciprocal burst of china's market could have huge implications. but i don't know how likely that is.

LAofAnaheim · #**2865** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 8:05 AM**

Anybody know why City Hall has a searchlight on the top? It looks great, I love it. Gives greater attention to DTLA (and another light projecting to the sky from the north side of downtown w/ LA Live on the south side). Maybe Angelenic can find out with its awesome reporting.... or if anybody else knows why??

edluva · #**2866** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 8:29 AM**

LA is a city that is well known for deep thinkers.

RAlossi · #**2867** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 9:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LAofAnaheim

Anybody know why City Hall has a searchlight on the top? It looks great, I love it. Gives greater attention to DTLA (and another light projecting to the sky from the north side of downtown w/ LA Live on the south side). Maybe Angelenic can find out with its awesome reporting.... or if anybody else knows why??

It's the Lindbergh Beacon, and it shines directly into my bedroom window -- but I think it's awesome.

Eric Richardson of blogdowntown had written on it a couple years ago...
http://blogdowntown.com/blog/2097

And a photo on flickr by Jim Winstead of trainedmonkey.com:

Echo Park · #**2868** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 6:26 PM**

edit: Steve2726 beat me to it: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=3220402&postcount=13

The firm thats doing NoHo TOD by the red line/orange line transfer point did these renders for a downtown building. It seems mostly a conceptual thing (i'm not even sure of the location based on the renderings) but damn these are snazzy.

danparker276 · #**2869** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 6:28 PM**

Skylofts dropped their prices big time, thats why they sold out. When I went into the sales office at Luma, the first thing they say is prices are negotiable (About 10%). None of the buildings doing pre-sales now are lowering prices, but they are going to have a lot of empty units (Evo and Roosevelt). How long can the developers hang on to these units?

RAlossi · #**2870** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 6:34 PM**

Great find! This is the northeast corner of 8th and Fig, one of the last remaining surface lots in the Financial District. I think ThreeHundred (oops, LosAngelesSportsFan) was asking about this parcel a couple months back. I didn't know there was an actual rendering there. Interesting that it's residential...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Echo Park

The firm thats doing NoHo TOD by the red line/orange line transfer point did these renders for a downtown building. It seems mostly a conceptual thing (i'm not even sure of the location based on the renderings) but damn these are snazzy.

Steve2726 · #**2871** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 6:41 PM**

According to the A.C. Martin website, it is a combo hotel/ residential.
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=3220402&postcount=13

LosAngelesSportsFan · #**2872** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 7:19 PM**

it was actually me that asked about that site, im sure others have to, but DAMN that would be a perfect project for that locations. It kind of reminds me of the library tower and probably 50 - 60 stories tall.

jlrobe · #**2873** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 7:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by edluva

forget our downtown market. if that happened, our economy could be in shambles. and it makes me shudder to think of a worst case scenario - a reciprocal burst of china's market could have huge implications. but i don't know how likely that is.

LA has been an economic juggernaut since the 40's. It thrives on affordable housing. Cheaper housing and better infrastructure will better position LA for the future. I think a 30% drop in many neighorhoods is a great thing. East LA, south central, and the valley need to be cheaper for LA to survive long term. I know of 10 people making 150k plus that would buy tomorrow if the prices fell by that amount. We would start spending more of our money instead of saving 3k a month for our downpayment. I think over the short term, it will be bad, but over the long run, a readjustment wont hurt. All of the people in fashion, art, film, television, music, science and technology, law, health, finance, accounting, tourism, government, international business, shipping, infrastucure, etc. should still have jobs right?!

Now if China falls apart.......crap!

citywatch · #**2874** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 8:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by danparker276

Skylofts dropped their prices big time, thats why they sold out. When I went into the sales office at Luma, the first thing they say is prices are negotiable (About 10%). None of the buildings doing pre-sales now are lowering prices, but they are going to have a lot of empty units (Evo and Roosevelt). How long can the developers hang on to these units?

I recall all the yrs when nothing was built in the hood because the ROA on a totally new bldg wouldn't be high enough to justify the investment. Even conversion of older existing bldgs didn't pencil out several yrs ago.

I know the previous owner of the Roosevelt said he wanted to switch the bldg to condos or apts but eventually canceled plans. That probably was cuz he couldn't charge enough for the condos. He then sold the Roosevelt, & when the price of housing took off, the current owner of the bldg went ahead with putting condos in it.

The devlpr of some of the largest apt bldgs on Bunker Hill was given the right to build more than just 2 apt towers back in the 1990s, inc a site south of Disney Hall. However, that devlpr never went beyond just 2 bldgs. Again, I believe it was cuz the ROA wouldn't have justified investing in additional apt towers.

I recall hearing the rep of the Hanover apt bldg on Fig at Olympic saying that due to run up in costs of new devlpt, his proj wouldn't work in today's market.

This problem goes double for office bldgs, since devlprs still can't charge a high enough rent to businesses to make a new bldg pencil out.

So if the average price of housing in LA drops way below $500K, does that mean DT will be right back to where it was over 10 yrs ago? IOW, maybe only short wood framed bldgs, at most, will pencil out? If so:

Echo Park · #**2875** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 10:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

it was actually me that asked about that site, im sure others have to, but DAMN that would be a perfect project for that locations. It kind of reminds me of the library tower and probably 50 - 60 stories tall.

I like the, well I wouldn't know what you'd call it, but some kind of false facade at the top of the building? If you notice the roof is flat in accordance with L.A's helipad requirements but it has the undulating facade wrapped around it so when you look at a profile of the building's exterior, it looks like the crown slopes upward. I don't know why more designers embrace that technique because it help distinguish buildings from downtown's otherwise boxy and flat (and lets admit it), somewhat boring skyline.

Quixote · #**2876** Posted **Dec 11, 2007, 10:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Echo Park

The firm thats doing NoHo TOD by the red line/orange line transfer point did these renders for a downtown building. It seems mostly a conceptual thing (i'm not even sure of the location based on the renderings) but damn these are snazzy.

Here ya go:

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyguy

Halekulani Hotel
Stories: 35
817 W. 8th St.
Los Angeles, CA 90017

The DCBID website says its under plan check as of 2007, but the only reference to it I could find was this 17 year old article: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m5072/is_n36_v12/ai_8908470

It's actually interesting to see how speculators were getting excited in the early 90s. Maybe the hotel group resubmitted their original plans for a hotel at 8th and Fig?

Hmm, could this be the same Halekulani as the one in Honolulu?

I guess the plans for a Four Seasons hotel on that site are no more.

ladowntowner · #**2877** Posted **Dec 12, 2007, 3:21 AM**

Just a thought... you guys might want to remove the large images from a quote unless they absolutely have to be in there for the sake of relevancy. Just sayin'...

Respectfully,

ladowntowner

ocman · #**2878** Posted **Dec 12, 2007, 4:32 AM**

The concept is impressive within a 45 degree arc, but from most points of view it'll look like any other. They need to free the building from it's boxy crutch.

LAofAnaheim · #**2879** Posted **Dec 12, 2007, 4:47 AM**

After our Hail-a-Taxi campaign, let's start a new one to remove the helipad requirement from bldgs. Even people from SF & NY ask me, "what's with the helipads in all those movies?". I'm sure our elevators today are much faster than in the past for emergency evacuations. I mean, who in their right mind, is going to the rooftop to wait for a helicopter in an emergency. Your only focus is to go down and leave the bldg.

ocman · #**2880** Posted **Dec 12, 2007, 5:01 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LAofAnaheim

After our Hail-a-Taxi campaign, let's start a new one to remove the helipad requirement from bldgs. Even people from SF & NY ask me, "what's with the helipads in all those movies?". I'm sure our elevators today are much faster than in the past for emergency evacuations. I mean, who in their right mind, is going to the rooftop to wait for a helicopter in an emergency. Your only focus is to go down and leave the bldg.

It's probably one of the biggest impediments in good architecture. I'd image getting rid of that requirement would do wonders for highrise design. I could think of an extreme situation where we'd really need it such as a 9/11 attack, but we'd have to know the numbers before the benefits of possessing helipads should be considered negligible.