Posted Oct 25, 2007, 7:08 PM
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Dérive-r
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 4,450
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Well at least as more office stock is added to the city total (short or tall), the less risky it gets for a developer to build a larger office building next cycle - ie adding 1mil s.f. to a downtown total of 21.5 mil has a greater impact on vacancy rate than adding 1mil s.f. to a downtown total of 25 mil, or 30 mil, or 50 mil, etc.
So if we could add a decent amount this cycle in a series of smaller office towers, we would likely see larger buildings next cycle. When that will be I don't know but who knows what the future holds for Vancouver business trends. Maybe our vacancy rate will keep decreasing leading up to and post-Olympics? So for the next 5 years or so. Maybe the market will be stronger than expected and we'll be able to absorb these first few office towers plus a nice ~150+m? Maybe some sort of major tenant will move into town over the next few years? Perhaps that's being too optimistic but you never know, with the upcoming Olympics this is a particularly unpredictable period for Vancouver.
If Microsoft could move into the Metro, why not other major corporations? Maybe Dubai Ports World will build their North American HQ here? Wishful thinking, I know.
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