Posted Sep 19, 2007, 2:31 AM
|
|
Registered User
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: New Brunswick
Posts: 823
|
|
2007-economysnapshot
Economic Snapshot — September 12, 2007
Saint John is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the east
By John Clinkard, Consulting Economist, CanaData
With an unemployment rate of 4.5% (a record low) and employment growth of 8.0% (a nine-year high), Saint John’s economy is clearly operating at almost full speed. Four key sectors are currently driving the Saint John economy.
The health services sector added an estimated 3,000 new jobs over the past twelve months. Secondly, employment in the wholesale and retail trade services sector increased significantly (+2,800). This was partly due to the opening of the East Point Mall.
In addition, refurbishing the Point LePreau Nuclear Plant and developing the Canaport LNG facility has contributed a significant increase in the manufacturing sector’s employment (+1,400) over the past twelve months. Finally, the utilities sector has, according to Statistics Canada, more than doubled in size over the past year, adding approximately 1,000 new jobs.
Despite a modest deterioration in affordability, housing demand in Saint John has escalated sharply over the past year. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, year-to- date sales of existing homes are up by 27.8% over last year. Meanwhile, prices have risen by 12% over the same period. This healthy increase in housing demand has also triggered a spike in new construction.
Year-to-date housing starts in Saint John are up by 17.8%. This is primarily due to a 40% year-to-date increase in multiple-unit construction. The boom in residential construction has been complemented by a surge in non-residential building, the value of which is up 16.8% year-to-date in 2007.
In the first half of this year, industrial construction increased by 300% year over year. This was mainly due to the development of the aforementioned nuclear plant and LNG plant, as well as new gypsum wallboard plant by J.D. Irving Ltd.
In addition, the downtown redevelopment by CenterBeam and Commercial Properties Ltd. will boost commercial construction in Saint John over the next several quarters.
Looking forward, there are increased risks to the outlook, due to recent financial market volatility. Growing concerns about the impact on Canada of the collapse of the U.S. housing market are also a factor. Given that current major projects are underpinning Saint John’s economy and should continue for the next few years, economic growth in the CMA should remain strong well into 2009.
John Clinkard has 30 years experience as an Economist in international, national and regional research and analysis with leading financial institutions and media outlets in Canada
|