CHICAGO | 375 East Wacker (Arquitectonica Tower) | 840 FT / 256 M | 76 FLOORS | PRO

[a chicago bearcat]

Originally Posted by LaSalle.St.Station

it kind of 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 with the s curve redo that we have to lose this awesome vista to a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 🞵🞵🞵 comercial development... the whole lsd re do is such a civic loss on so many levels.

well, the turn before the "redo" or rerouting, was sharper than 90 degrees, and bottlenecked traffic due to how frickin slow you had to go before Harold washington staightened things out (pun intended)

[SamInTheLoop]

I'm really interested to find out how the Magellan folks are approaching the launch of marketing here. In my view, if indeed they are still planning to officially launch sales this year, this project could serve as a real bellweather for the downtown market, measuring the amount of pre-construction condo unit appetite that is really out there. It's a huge project - I think well over 600 condos. This means a lot of velocity is needed to hit their pre-sale. Also, they are a lot of expensive units, as I believe units start at $500,000 or so - by far the highest starting condo prices yet at LSE. This will be more of a test than 235 Van Buren, which has a similar number of units but it's a completely different price bracket - CMK just operates on a different model. Also, as for the Spire, that's also playing to a different market - wealthy Europeans and Asians. Magellan has a lot going for it, in terms of economies of scale, a large existing base of previous buyers, and a large marketing machine (not to mention the tremendous views the location has and the growing number of amenities at Lakeshore East). I can't wait for sales to begin because I want to find out how strong (or weak) this market really is....

[SlatsGrobnik]

^ A very insightful analysis. I think the slowdown in sales at Trump has pretty much shown the appetite at the very top of the range, but yes, there is a big difference between 235 Van Buren and Trump Tower. I think the apparently failure of Mandarin to launch on time may already have shown that the market has peaked.

And yet, we've had at least announcements on Arquitectonica, Franklin Point, and Wolf Point, all within the last 90 days. Can any of these really materialize???

[JMininger]

Originally Posted by SlatsGrobnik

^ A very insightful analysis. I think the slowdown in sales at Trump has pretty much shown the appetite at the very top of the range, but yes, there is a big difference between 235 Van Buren and Trump Tower. I think the apparently failure of Mandarin to launch on time may already have shown that the market has peaked.

And yet, we've had at least announcements on Arquitectonica, Franklin Point, and Wolf Point, all within the last 90 days. Can any of these really materialize???

I think it is tricky to try and draw any conclusions from the sales at Trump as there seems to be a myriad of reasons for this. I have absolutely no knowledge of the buying patterns one might see for a building under development. However, I could easily see that once the early sales are made, there is a considerable slowdown until the building gets closer to completion. I doubt that sales would be steady, so a slowdown may not be any sort of indicator. Location may also be a factor. If Trump was a part of LSE then perhaps it would be a better indicator. And, of course, you mentioned competition. I would like to think that the reason Donald Trump is publicly paying attention (to put it nicely) to the Spire is because it is already a competitive player for his sales. It doesn't mean that the market has peaked, but rather that the onslought of new units in this price category may be reaching the capacity of Chicago to fill. I haven't seen any figures for recent sales and without having that to draw conclusions from, I can't tell you that total sales are starting to slump ... it may be as high as ever but that with all of the new units either announced or under construction, it just appears that the market has peaked.

[BorisMolotov]

Well, I have a feeling the market may pick up again in a few years - MANY MANY people I talk out here in the suburbs in high school want to move downtown, including myself. But I don't know if its always been that way.

[Busy Bee]

^Not to the extent that I think it is now. The younger generation, to a large degree, doesn't want to live the suburban lifestyle. I really believe you are going to see RADICAL transformation and demographic shifts for this very reason over the next 10-20-30 years in American cities. I view it as a sort of retribution for the shear destruction and heartache caused to the American city by the Post-WWII suburban era. That the city would regain the glory and prominence they once held with a new generation of city-by-choice residents is the ultimate testament of greatness.

[SlatsGrobnik]

Originally Posted by BorisMolotov

Well, I have a feeling the market may pick up again in a few years - MANY MANY people I talk out here in the suburbs in high school want to move downtown, including myself. But I don't know if its always been that way.

High School kids are 25--30 years away from being able to afford these places.

[BorisMolotov]

If people want to live there, the market will allow them to be there. And yea, coming out of college, I wont be able to live in a top floor penthouse, but a lower floor apartment shared with a friend with no views I think I could manage..

[Vertigo]

My, how things are changing on BOTH sides of the river...

[tintinex]

Originally Posted by Vertigo

My, how things are changing on BOTH sides of the river...

Wow, this is the exact picture I've been wanting to see for a long time! I moved to Chicago in 2000 and I've heard so much about the infamous "S curve" and how it was remodeled but was never able to find a picture of it. That then explains why the whole LSE lot was empty at some point. Wasn't it also a golf course?

Thanks Vertigo, good find! Can't wait to see more renders of this tower

[bobdreamz]

well you can't say that Arquitectonica dislikes holes!

[forumly_chgoman]

Originally Posted by BorisMolotov

If people want to live there, the market will allow them to be there. And yea, coming out of college, I wont be able to live in a top floor penthouse, but a lower floor apartment shared with a friend with no views I think I could manage..

^^^UM......no offense but not necessarily.....I think you'll find the realities of paying a 350 - 500K mortgage a bit less idealistic, or for that matter 1500-2500 a month in rent.

[VivaLFuego]

Originally Posted by BorisMolotov

If people want to live there, the market will allow them to be there. And yea, coming out of college, I wont be able to live in a top floor penthouse, but a lower floor apartment shared with a friend with no views I think I could manage..

True; I was not 6 months out of school before I got my condo (though my parents co-signed the mortgage to improve the overall credit and get a better rate), obviously it wasn't in a brand-new luxury building but it's still a significant potential market segment that would drive overall condo demand.

[VivaLFuego]

Originally Posted by forumly_chgoman

^^^UM......no offense but not necessarily.....I think you'll find the realities of paying a 350 - 500K mortgage a bit less idealistic, or for that matter 1500-2500 a month in rent.

A recent college grad (with a good degree) can reasonably expect to make about 40-55K out of school, which is more than enough to afford $1000-1500 per month in housing expense (rent/mortgage/whatever) if there aren't also car payments and such. They wouldn't be in the market for a 350K, but a 200K is fully within the realm of comprehension.

[forumly_chgoman]

Originally Posted by VivaLFuego

A recent college grad (with a good degree) can reasonably expect to make about 40-55K out of school, which is more than enough to afford $1000-1500 per month in housing expense (rent/mortgage/whatever) if there aren't also car payments and such. They wouldn't be in the market for a 350K, but a 200K is fully within the realm of comprehension.

Well there are very few 200K condos in the DT market...not saying there are not any just not a lot & 55K is toward the high end for a new college grad even if he / she has an engineering degree which typically offer among the higher starting salaries. Also rents are moving up...yeah studios & 1bds can be found in your range, but it is getting increasingly difficult & lets not forget we are talking about here HS kids who won't be in the market fro at least another 4-5 years. Even at 50,000 after tax there will be about 35,000 net, even at 1,000 / month this is at almost 35% of net inc.....a pretty high % of your inc to rent or whatever. This assumes no student loans...that is a big, big assumption. Add a 250-300 a month student loan payment & you are looking at 15,000 at least out the door before you even eat, pay utils, etc.

Business majors typically avg about 40K starting mayeb a little higher if your have accting degree. Liberal arts not much over 30K.

Given these numbers I stand by my earlier analysis, at your given upper end 55K which is roughly the starting salary of chem eng majors....you could prob afford 1000/month but it would still be tight. @ 1,500 month you are looking at more than 45% of your net inc going to rent...is it doable ...yeah...is it wise, or enjoyable no.

For non-engineering majors whose starting salaries are in the low 40's (business) or low-mid 30's (liberal arts) the picture is much bleaker.

Hay, but you don't have to live DT to enjoy the city.....I loived in 2bd in ravenswood back in the late 90's for 750----though most rents ther are now about double that. Also had a studio in uptown in 1998 and started paying only 425, it moved to 525 when I moved out in 2001

[BorisMolotov]

Regardless of whether we will live downtown or simply in the city, I still think it is good that everyone (my age at least) out in the suburbs wants back in. And even the people older than me (In college and just graduated) many of them want to be in the city. This is good for continuing this boom.

[a chicago bearcat]

Originally Posted by BorisMolotov

Regardless of whether we will live downtown or simply in the city, I still think it is good that everyone (my age at least) out in the suburbs wants back in. And even the people older than me (In college and just graduated) many of them want to be in the city. This is good for continuing this boom.

most people I know, don't exactly want to live downtown when they graduate, but definitely want to live affordably in the city near transit

so let's create a midrise boom along the greenline on the southside...yeah

but seriously, it might not be us moving downtown that fuels the next boom, but rather us moving into neighborhoods, where in turn from us moving in the current residents can move on up, to the lakeshore east side and finally get a piece of the pie

[dvidler]

Or another way to look at it the kids move into the city and the parents follow with a downtown condo to be closer to them and experience the city life themselves.

[BorisMolotov]

Chicago Bearcat, you raise a good point about relocating people.

But I guess us NW Suburbanites have different opinions about where to live in the city than you South siders do.

[Busy Bee]

Posts 409 & 410:

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?p=2489273#post2489273

Post 1813